assumptions for LHO's hand 1. Has less than 15 HCP but near maximum to justify X (certainly more than 12 or would open 1NT) 2. Has at most 4♣ since no 2♣ opening and has the AK 3. Has at most 3♥ based on the bidding (partner's ♥ response) 4. Has at most 4♠ based on the bidding (no 1♠ opening) 5. As a consequence of 2), 3), and 4) has at least 2♦ 6. signals indicate RHO has ♣Q 6. Probably needs 2 of A♥ KQ♦ to justify X Since more probable to have A♥ + H♦ than KQ♦ I go up with the K