Poky

Pass. Pass.

Yes, it increases the chance from ~0% to ~50%. You really think this is enough to rule that "the UI demonstrably suggests bidding the grand"? Furthermore, speaking of procedural penalty. If someone thinks the bidder should get a PP, in my view this means the PP should be assesed even when the grand fails (opps cashing the ♦A). This really has no sense.

To rule adjustment the answer on the question "Does the UI demonstrably suggest bidding 7♥?" has to be "Yes". Lets see. "Partner hesitated. Why? Probably he isn't sure what 4♣ is and tries to remember it. He finally bids 4♦. Did he remember what 4♣ is? - Who knows. Did he answer aces correctly? - I cannot really know. Does the slow 4♦ suggest he has the ♦A and other few cards that 7♥ needs? - No, for sure not! So, what should I do? Whatever, the slow bid doesn't suggest anything that guarantees the grand will be a good contract, so, I can bid 7♥ in the dark and hope for the best (p having ♦A/diamond not lead), prepared to say sorry if p hasn't the ♦A." So, I rule "Result stands". The bidder bid 7♥ taking his own risks in situation where the UI didn't suggest anything very useful to him, just partner's unsureness about the Gerber convention. Where is my logic wrong?

♥ = 10 ♣K = 6 ♠ = 3 small ♦= 1 ♦Q = 0

Let's think about this line: ♦A ♥AKJ ♠ to Q If this holds (cca. 50%) - Duck diamond - Take return - Ruff a diamond - Last trump Now we make slam - if ♣J falls - if ♣/♠ squeeze operates It seems a line far better than 29%. Can you calculate the exact odds?

♠xxx ♥Jxx ♦xxx ♣AKQ9 Lead: ♦K ♠AQTx ♥AKQT9 ♦Ax ♣Tx

IMP. They vul. ♠10xx ♥98xx ♦Qxx ♣9xx pass 3♥ 3NT ?? a ) What do you bid? b ) What would you bid if LHO wasn't a passed hand?

What constraints you used? Can you repeat, please, a simulation with these: - fix: ♣KQJxxxxx; - fix: 6-8 HCP (no big values outside, max Q or JJ); - fix: no 4M, no 4♦. TY. P.S. What program do you use for these simulations?

"Nothing outside" in terms of A, K or QQ - to be sure the risk of losing 3NT is minimal.

Hmm. Now I have additional chances. Probably I will play: ♦A ♣K ♣A Run ♦J if not covered (throwing spades)... What happens?

I will try to set up a dummy reversal. ♥A ♥J ruffed (covered or not) ♦ to ♦Q a ) if RHO takes and returns hearts, I'll follow my initial plan, my entries are intact b ) if RHO takes and return diamonds killing an entry ♣AKQ ♦J10 -> ♥/♠ squeeze on LHO or ♠finesse or ♥/♠ show-up squeeze on RHO

All vul. 4♣ pass ?? ♠xx ♥KQJx ♦AKxx ♣Axx 4♣ shows ♣HHxxxxxx and nothing outside. ♠AK and ♥A are missing. Let's say, it is good to raise 4♣ to 5♣ whenever opener has some of distributions: 0238 0328 1138 1318 1248 2038 3028. (cannot have 4M) Watching 2♠4♥4♦ what is the chance 5♣ will make (supposing partner has the ♣K)?

4♣* pass 4♦ * Disciplined club preempt (usually ♣HHxxxxxx)

Drop ♦QJ!!! 4432 and 5521 patterns are improbable, that is true. But 4342 and 5611 are even more improbable. So, I would not play RHO for 2 singletons and 6-5 majors. And playing LHO has lead diamonds from ♦Qxx is absurd, in this case I cannot make my game anyway, with normal defense. Furthermore, If I play for the drop and diamonds are Qxxx-J they are always cold for 4♥, so, it will be a good score.

Couldn't he double to show that? Double probably shows some 4135, 4144 or 4225 pattern. The hand in question was: ♠AQTx ♥x ♦xx ♣AKQxxx

1♣ pass 1♦ pass 1♥ 1NT pass ?? Expert partner. MP. All vul. What do you expect from partner's 1NT? What do you bid with 4441 and 5 HCP?

A1. Yes A2. Clear-cut 1♥ A3. 18-19 balanced or similar A4. 2♣ clear-cut A5. Heart support, ~6-9 A6. 1♠ overcall, 2♣ cue etc.

Assume some casual expert partnership. 1♠ pass 1NT 2♥ 3♣ Is 3♣ forcing or non-forcing?

1♥= 3♥ ~11-18 or 4♥ unbalanced ~11-13, NF 2♥= 4♥ ~12-14 balanced (frequent hand, should come to the 2nd level as soon as possible) 3♥= 4♥ ~14-16 unabalanced, invitational

Yes, sorry. I misread the bidding. B) OK. Lets say then: QJx(x) KQJTxxx x(x) x If I pass this, and double 5m, it can be read aa Lightner, so, it is better to show my ambitions in the 1st occasion.

Inviting 5♥ over 5m. Say: QJx KQJxxxxx x x

If partner has "nothing", obviously, he has 5 hearts. Since I do not know if he has the ♠J, it is better if I do (hidden text follows...) Nice problem.

2♥ Bluhmer. I'm minimal for bidding 3♥.

♣A or ♣K, hearts are for sure agreed with the 4♦ cue.

It does sugges nothing special. Maybe he has only 3♥ (strange system), maybe he is a little light for his action. Maybe he is a little strong for his action. I don't care. I have a clear raise to game with 4-4 majors, so, I bid 3♠, letting p to pick our best fit (he had no other bid with a strong 4342 hand available).