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Everything posted by Edmunte1
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a ) I'll pass in tempo over 3♥, game seems unlikely even if partener has the expected 7 hcp b ) I'll double over 4♥, showing hcp, and denying 4♠. This could be a -5 IMP's affair, but also it could work pretty often
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You can look at http://www.clairebridge.com/encheresetsystemes.htm
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1♥ -- 1♠ 2♣(1) -- 2♦ (2) 2♠(3) --2NT(4) 3♣(5) -- 3♠(6) 4♣(7) -- 4♠ 5♦(8) -- 6♠ Some possible sequence using Gazilli, this is a difficult slam to reach (1) natural or 16++ any (2) positive relay (3) 5+♥ + 3+♠, 16+ (4) relay (5) 3-5-1-4 shape (6) setting trumps, at least mild slam try (7) cue, min hand (8) ♦A, probably needed from partner's bidding
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This doesn't qualify for 1 level opening (no rebid after 1♠ response). So pass or 1nt are choices. Playing 10-13 NT ( i prefer 11-13 and some good tens) has no only a preemptive role, but also a constructive one, the main inferences being: -if you pass, your partner won't play you for 10+-13 balanced -you reach fast your part score -you have an easy constructive bidding -if you open with 1m , partner will asume you have an unbalanced hand or a 14+ balanced hand So 1nt seems the normal choice
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North gets 70%, he had an easy 4♥ bid Also South playing Lebensohl should have bid the game, so he gets 30% of blame too.
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Q or 9, is there a difference
Edmunte1 replied to kgr's topic in General Bridge Discussion (not BBO-specific)
This was just maths, ignoring the human factor. But: -In case 2)K32 --- JT 3.4% ---->East sometimes can put the Jack, sometimes the Ten. But one issue that is usually misunderstood is that apriori case 3)K32--JT 3.4% is more probable than 4)KJ32---T 2.8%. But after the first round played the probability for 3)K32--JT has diminished to 1.7% (west decided to play T), and the probability of 4)KJ32---T remained the same, and that's all restricted choice is about. - In case 3)J32 --- KT 3.4% ----> this is right if west never falsecards with the Jack. Now depends of the level of the opponents, but i guess this falsecard is way below average, being something like 25% chance, so the probability of this case should be 3.4% *75% = 2.55% So some final calculation should look like: a) If jack apears finesse( you'll win case 1) and lose 25% of case 3)) :) If the second small card appears: -play 9 for 40% (2.8%/(2.8+2.55+1.7)) -play A for 36% -play Q for 24% -
Q or 9, is there a difference
Edmunte1 replied to kgr's topic in General Bridge Discussion (not BBO-specific)
The problem is what finesse: In case 1(3.4%), we have obviously to put the Queen In case 2(3.4%) we have to finesse the Queen In case 3(3.4%) we'll lose no matter what finesse we're playing, unless we're playing the Ace In case 4(2.8%) we have to finesse 9. So the right play should be: a)If the Jack appears finesse b)if the second small card appears you have 3 possible lines - playing the Queen for 35.4% chance - playing the Ace for 35.4% chance - playing the 9 for 29.2% chance -
3NT. I would never pass 3♠ doubled with that hand
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Q or 9, is there a difference
Edmunte1 replied to kgr's topic in General Bridge Discussion (not BBO-specific)
Here are all cases with their probabilities: KJT --- 32 3.4% KJ3 --- T2 3.4% KT3 --- J2 3.4% JT3 --- K2 3.4% KJ2 --- T3 3.4% KT2 --- J3 3.4% JT2 --- K3 3.4% K32 --- JT 3.4% J32 --- KT 3.4% T32 --- KJ 3.4% T2 --- KJ3 3.4% J2 --- KT3 3.4% K2--- JT3 3.4% T3 --- KJ2 3.4% J3 --- KT2 3.4% K3 --- JT2 3.4% JT --- K32 3.4% KT--- J32 3.4% 32 --- KJT 3.4% KJ103 --- 2 2.8% KJ102 --- 3 2.8% KJ32 --- T 2.8% KT32 --- J 2.8% JT32 --- K 2.8% 2 ---KJT3 2.8% 3 --- KJT2 2.8% T -- -KJ32 2.8% J --- KT32 2.8% K --- JT32 2.8% KJ1032 --- void 2% void --- KJ1032 2% After we have lost to ten, in the first round and play second round (let's suppose also West played 2 on the first round), we are down to these cases: 1)KJ2 --- T3 3.4% 2)K32 --- JT 3.4% 3)J32 --- KT 3.4% 4)J2 --- KT3 3.4% 5)K2--- JT3 3.4% 6)32 --- KJT 3.4% 7)KJ32 --- T 2.8% 8)2 --- KJT3 2.8% Cases 4,6,8 are losers, and on case 5) the King just shows up on second round, so we're down to: 1)KJ2 --- T3 3.4% 2)K32 --- JT 3.4% 3)J32 --- KT 3.4% 4)KJ32 --- T 2.8% So the finesse is obvious, being 9.6% to 2.8% chance (77.4%) -
I agree with Frances, 2NT should be played as Scrambling. If we didn't discussed that, pass is normal
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You hold in the second seat, as South, in a team match: [hv=d=e&v=b&s=s42hj109643daj82c3]133|100|Scoring: IMP[/hv] Do you open 2♥? And how do you feel about it? Are you satisfied with your choice?
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3♦ for now, followed by 4♣-5♣
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1. Agree if this sets GF as it should 2. Agree, showing an offensive hand with spade shortage. I'm very glad to hear partner cooperates with 5♦ this means that he doesn't have spade wastage. But also means that he doesn't have extras, he would have bid 4NT with that 3. Though, East helped giving us an extra round of bidding space (a friend in need is a friend in-deed?), we don't have enough hcp's for driving to slam. I think it's a close call between second FP and double, and double should be the percentage call with the risk that it may make (West void in ♥, East singleton in ♦), and clubs as their secondary suit). So my choice will be a second pass. 4. Someone is trying to buy a cheap cow. I also think East has ♥ length
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1. 1♥ OK, 4♥ may work too. 2. 3♥. This is a ♥ hand, and i have 8 tricks in a ♥ contract
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1)I do believe in fairy tales :) but, 2) I won't sacrifice for 500+ when there's a small chance of nailing them. In IMP's you'll win 3-4 IMP's and lose 12 if they go down in 4♠, so if the chance for 4♠ to drift one off is bigger than 20%, the sacrifice doesn't worth.
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1. Easy pass, Kxx in trumps and Qx in clubs are good stuff, but not enough for a raise, i need one more cover card. 2. Double may work, opps are usually stretching in this position, and if they make the loss will be 5 IMP's. The win will be 3 IMP's for down one and 7 IMP's for down 2 (AK♦, ♦ruff, ♠ to Ace, ♦ ruff/upercut :rolleyes: ). But in IMP's i'll pass, in MP's i'll double.
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I think 2nt is the worst evil. Do you play any special development after (2M)-2NT?
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It's pretty simple. When you're short of slam, you're fighting only with that part of the field that isn't in the slam. So you don't have to do something special against the odds. Let's consider 2 cases: 1. The slam makes, the score sheet will be something like: 980, 980, 980, 980, 980, 980, 480, 480, 480, 480, you'll get 3/18 MP=16.66%, but if you try something fancy your 450 will get a zero 2. The slam doesn't make, so the score sheet will be something like: 450,450,450,450,-50,-50,-50,-50,-50,-50, and you'll get 15/18 MP=83.33%. If you try something fancy you'll get a top for 480 or 12/18=66.66% for a 420. Considering that slam is odds on, more frequent you'll lose in case 1., losing 16.66% than winning in case 2. the same number of MP's. For more MP's decisions like this one i strongly recommend you Hugh Kelsey's book Match-Point Bridge
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Ambra: 1♣ ----- 1♥ 2♦(1)---2♠(2) 2NT(3) --- 3♣(2) 3♦(4) --- 3♥(5) 3♠(6) --- 4♣(7) 4♦(8) --- 4♥(9) 4♠(10) --- 5♣(11) 6♣(12) (1) 5+♣+4♦ 17+ or 6+♣ 17+ or 5♣+4♥+SPL 17+ or 4♥ 18-19 bal (2) relay GF (3) 5+♣+4♦ 17+ (4) 6♣+4♦ (5) relay showing either ♣ fit or semisolid ♥ (6) 17-19 SPL ♠ (7) RKCB in ♣ (8) 14 KC (9) cue, we have enough KC (10) cue, ♠A (11) denies ♣Q, we're playing only 5 if you don't have it (12) i have it
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4♠ is not the best bid. You need some mechanisms here to show a GF hand. Playing in a pick-up partnership 3♣ seems the most sensible choice. Possible bidding: 1♥ ----- 1♠ 3♣ ----- 4♣ 4♥ ----- 4♠ (confirming ♦ cue too) 4NT ----- 5♣ (3KC in♣) 5♦ ----- 5♠ (♣Q) 7NT Of course this method has flaws especially if partner has ♦K instead of ♦A and 5 spades headed by AJ, but we're taking about pick-up partnerships, so we should be content with that.
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1♠ - the queen of suits, 3 from the first 6 honours in ♠, some shape, all 11 working points, easy second call, it's not a close call for me
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Double
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4NT is RKCB for me, 3♠ was an advance cuebid or an asking bid. 4♦ now shows the strong hand. I guess 3♣ was showing extras too and 3♦ showing a semisolid 6 card suit or a 7 card suit. No way for a regresing 4nt here, 5♦ is the only brake.
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Hahaha, agree
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This was the full hand:[hv=d=n&v=e&n=sakj8h543djca9875&w=s1062hk6dkq86ckj63&e=shaqjt9872da543cq&s=sq97543hdt972ct42]399|300|Scoring: IMP[/hv] At my table i passed, playing there for -680 At other table South overcalled, the final contract was 5♠-2 +100
