Jlall

Why would you expect a diamond back from this hand, but a heart back if he had the SQ and the same hand? It is a mind game but generally I would switch if I did have the SQ rather than if I didn't. I think reading too much into this is asking to be owned.

Why would we ever not duck the second heart? If west is 4144 he is just toast. I guess he can pitch the DJ but he wouldn't know that, and he still gets endplayed anyways.

lol i thought we had ducked two hearts... black suit endplay then

yeah obviously you play for the black suit sqz on west.

None of the above. Diamonds, then Spades, then Spades. Normal biddiing to show your 6-5, no jumping required. Meh I think 1D 1H 1S 1N 3S would be reasonable, just bidding 2S there could be like a 5-6 9 count or w/e.

Siegmund, 12 points with 5 hearts is a very bad metric for a guy who simply forces to slam opposite 18-19 with 3 hearts when they had a ton of room to investigate if they chose to do so. If they are simply bidding on power/HCP, we are very unlikely to set this because partner won't have anything (RHO will surely have more than 12!), and if we can it's not like a spade lead will blow it that often. If RHO has some shape which is very likely, especially in instances where we can set them, a spade lead just stands out.

I don't understand how any bridge player could say: 1) I like leading aggressively vs slams but 2) This is not the hand for it. Trumps are breaking. If there is a finesse in trumps it's likely on. If there is a finesse/double finesse in diamonds it's likely on. They had a complete power auction, rather than a tentative auction. LHO is very strong. If this isn't the time for it, what is?

I think Xing even if you had another ace would be bad. Just go plus on these hands imo.

lol

yeah a spade lead is really standout

I like to play this as the majors, something like AKxx AKxx xxxx x would be typical. I played it as penalty forever, but it just never came up when they responded 1N, and even if you have a penalty X partner will balance with a X a lot on this auction.

Wow a hand gnasher will pass a forcing bid! I guess that's why gnasher would never bid 1S though :rolleyes:

Pretty sure I almost never post on the watercooler, so this is a bad bet

Nooooooooooo! ?!

Buffy the Vampire Slayer is a great show

Hmm I actually disagree completely with 655321 for once in my life

If they play the J and the 9 you can duck vs most opps, but be aware that it is a very standard falsecard for good expert players to play J then 9 from KJ9.

Few people if any are exploitable enough that you can play for JT9 here.

I don't think so, since you rarely are going down if you play the 9. I don't see why you go down if you play the Q and they shift to the DK...can't you just win and give up a spade? You lose 2 diamonds, 1 heart, 1 spade. Or are you saying they're gonna shift to a low diamond from KQJx, because I don't think that will ever happen. I also don't think they are shifting to xx of diamonds ever. So basically you go down by playing the 9 if LHO has led from a 3 card heart suit. I think it is wayyy worth it to make the overtrick in that case. On this hand you got 80 % of the matchpoints for +600. It doesn't seem unreasonable to assume you increase your MP score by 15 % if you make an overtrick, and you probably only decrease your score by 60 % (I assume there are a lot of 4S-1s) by going down. I think LHO has JTxx of hearts much more than 4x as often as he has a 3 card heart suit. And again, it's not like you guarantee the contract by popping Q if LHO has a 3 card heart suit, sometimes it's just unmakeable when RHO has both aces. Also since you need a monster game to win this and it's not like a normal 1 session game, go for the top imo! Again, I think how quickly they led a heart could be a huge factor in how you play...they never lead quickly from a 3 card suit ime.

Also pls no one do a double dummy simulation here because part of the reason for bidding is that partner's lead is almost always an epic fail, and if it's not you probably have a fit. There are lots of hands where 1N is down and partial is on your way, but you do not actually beat 1N on whatever partner will lead.

This. Also pls don't play non penalty Xs

Also interesting that the H8 is important as a blocker of them having JT8x where they would lead the jack always.

This is true, you gain on ~2/3rds of those type of layouts by popping Q (since LHO will have the SA ~4/6ths of the time). All I'll add is he might also have ATx or even AJx some of these times and you'll be ok. I still think playing the 9 is right if they play 4th, but you might use your table feel also (if they lead slowly much more likely to be a 3 card suit than usual, quickly is less likely etc). Nice game!

I mean, absolutely depends on what my partner expects for an opening bid obviously. If this question is meant to ask "Do you think playing a style where this is an opening bid is a good idea in a standardish system" I would say it probably doesn't matter much at imps, but it's definitely a good idea in MP. If this question is meant to ask "Do you open in a pickup partnership playing a standardish system?" I would say partner would not expect me to open this light since that is not standard, so I would pass at imps, but I would still open at MP because I think the gains outweigh the risks involved with misleading partner.

I don't understand this hand, if the opponents play fourth best and led the 2 then isn't playing the 9 at trick 1 right? It gains when LHO has the JT of hearts almost always (barring an unlikely diamond shift). Playing the Q only gains when LHO has 2 diamond honors and the SA and the HA (so that you can set up a diamond trick without RHO getting in). Maybe the opponents played attitude leads in which case the Q is the right play at trick 1.