Jlall

lol 4N

none of the above?

Why would you care?

acid

ahh, 4H then... passing twice is beyond LOL bad though, I don't even have a word for it

I second this one. It's really one of the most eye-opening threads I have seen on BBF, and I think one of its lessons (preempt with shortness in the majors!) is by far not well-known enough. Hmm I don't understand this thread... Tysen is really smart though! He wrote a famous poker book after all of this also.

Justin, how much (if at all) do you modify your overcalling style based on the 1NT range? I've always heard that it's best not to overcall with this kind of hand against a weak NT because partner will tend to drive to game - and if partner caters to this hand then we will miss other good games when I have a stronger hand. Totally agree that your overcalls should generally be sounder vs a weak NT than vs a strong NT, because game is still quite possible vs a weak NT, and not as much of a concern vs a strong NT. That being said, at MP and especially w/w, it is very important to me to compete for the partial, especially with the majors. It is to me a NECESSARY evil to lose accuracy on game bidding in order to be able to fight for the partscore more often at this vulnerability/form of scoring. Missing a game/overbidding to a game is no worse than missing your +110 or -50 save is. Obviously there must be a balance somewhere, and where that balance is is open to interpretation. I readily admit that people generally consider my hyper competitive style at w/w MP to be "crazy" but it works for me. Most deals are about finding fits and competing for the partial, not about being super accurate on game bidding. If this was say imps and we were vulnerable, I would not really dream of bidding with this hand over a weak NT, because the primary concerns at imps are not going for numbers, and not missing games (and along with that, not overbidding to game far too often). So I guess I'm saying that the vulnerability and scoring is affecting me more than the 1N range is, but obviously they are all factors that play into my decision. I would say that it's definitely correct to in general be sounder over weak NTs than strong NTs though.

Yes the suit symbols are messed up for everyone...I was honestly just gonna not fix them but maybe I will since it is annoying me right now heh.

bid game

passsssssss.........clee????????

Pretty brutal problem... guess we have to bid 5H

I would not drive to slam here, but yeah I woulda bid immediately. I assume by the money you mean 5m and not passing, which could easily lead to a double game swing.

1) 2C, I am white/white at MP with the majors! 2) 2H ldo 3) Pass

There was a thread ages ago where Justin called this bid "preemptive" and Frances "invitational", although I think it seemed they didn't agree all that much on which hands would bid it (Justin's preemptive hands where still ok to get raised opposite a min with 4 trumps and controls). Maybe Csaba can find it... yes, trumps, controls, shortness are all important for bidding game opposite a bid that shows a long suit + shape... I would certainly pass 3S with garbage hands that have extra HCP also like 4333 soft 15 counts playing the way I play. Also I wish people would stop bidding as if partner had 4441 when he made a takeout double, if he is 4441 and you jump in a suit he will upgrade that strongly as extra values (4th trump and stiff that he never promised), and bid accordingly. He can bid his own 4441 for himself. Even if you are not into doubling with 4333 mins or really light hands, surely even the soundest of players on the forums will double with 3442 and a 12 count routinely.

I had never heard of it pre-forums either. Not saying it doesn't exist obv, but I think it's a very rare interpretation in USA anyways which accounts for the differences in opinion when we have Europeans and North Americans discussing the meaning of it.

Why is simulating this a bad idea? Mikeh's method does not seem unreasonable to me: deal a number of hands consistent with the auction and try to decide what might happen after a double or a pass. Because, eventually all you're left with are your assumptions on what might happen after you double. And there are a ton of assumptions. You really went through all the hands, and saw how the play might be slightly altered by doubling, to the point where one declarer guesses something and one doesn't or vice versa? Or how the lead might be altered? And there is just so much guessing in the auction that might lead to later differences in the lead/play/bidding. And eventually you still just have a sample of what might happen if you double vs hanp, not what might happen if you double vs an average opponent, because some of the mistakes that will occur you will not realize might occur. In general being in the auction will cause the opponents to make some mistakes, and you can never fully account for this. The fact that you and mikeh got wildly different answers from doing the same simulation is simply because you have different views on what would happen after you doubled. I think this is pretty useless. I even think if you and I were to analyze the same set of hands that you simulated, we would have quite different views about what would happen on these hands after a double and a pass.

If partner has 4441 he is not going to pass 2S very often, only if he has a complete yarb. If partner has other shapes the hand is not that great.

Hmm... seems like he must have been talking about national pair games, or maybe about regionals when pairs were the premier event.

I'd pass

routine X, don't be a genius

Also with some good agreements you can make yourself at least 66% to get the lead right if they run (for instance, Xing where they run asks for the higher ranking suit to be led, passing asks for one of the lower two ranking suits) fwiw.

Have you ever seen responder run on these auctions? I don't see why they wouldn't if they had a 5 or 6 card minor and they knew it was an AK they were off and not 2 aces (and presumably they know it's not 2 aces since they bid 6N). There is so much upside to running with xx AQx AQx AJTxx since given that you're off the AK of spades you have all the points, so if partner has a 5 card red suit or 4-4 in the reds you will make 7C on a non spade lead. A 6 card minor might have tried to play 6m, but a lot of people will just bid 6N.

LOL

Yeah I would always tell them "We play Ghestem, but we both forgot LOLOLOLOL, I have clubs." I would definitely look down on someone who had clubs and said "there has been a failure to alert, we play Ghestem" and that's it. I think telling them that you both forgot is better than just saying nothing.

Double at imps, double at MP, double always. Against good opps I'm pretty sure it is way more dangerous to double here at MP than imps though.