Jlall

Thanks for the helpful reply. No doubt we are all very impressed. lol

Yeah I don't agree that pass is forcing. RHO might have 8 spades for instance, or 7 and a hand that is a normal 3S opener (don't agree that this auction usually shows a 2 suiter, to me it shows a "preempt over a preempt" type hand), and in that case I would never want to be in a forcing pass...sometimes RHO buys a good dummy.

If we double can partner bid a 3 card spade suit very often when hes 3136? If so how do we get to clubs? Just curious, because I'm sure I'd try 3S with AQx x xxx Axxxxx or something...maybe that's wrong though? edited my hand example to make it less strong heh

♥ I know Han said he'd bid 4S also, but he didn't post it!

Oh partner might pass the X when it's wrong, I had no idea, in that case 4N must be clearcut, sry.

?

Normally with 2-6 you should bid 2H. However with this hand you should bid 3C.

I don't see anything better than ace and duck a heart, win return cash SA, hearts, then diamonds squeezing RHO hopefully. I toyed with AK of hearts first to try and pick up 6214 with Hx of hearts on right, but this not only loses to 6313, but it also makes us have to guess the position (if RHO started with 6322, or 6223) which is not good.

Meh I think overcalling 1H is ok, but lol at bidding now. Some people just refuse to defend.

1m? You have 24 points iirc!

Please elaborate. tough to defend 4S X (by far the most likely thing you want to do when you have this hand) or play in 5C (definitely what you want to do if partner will bid it over your X) when you bid 4N!

Bluecalm, you keep saying that people stretch to overbid/take the push when red/white, I think you will find this to be much less true the better the opposition you play. It really is only the pretty weak guys who think they are geniuses who routinely take the push to the 5 level because they're red/white rather than just doubling. Of course owning those guys is fun if you know who they are heh.

pass obviously

Pass... my spade values are good for defense given that partner is going to be short there.

OP didn't really say anything about a special meaning for a X, in fact he asked about bidding 4S and running if doubled. My opinion is that that is ridiculous. I don't know how it would work out to play X shows this hand, I've never played it. Probably I would not want to do it unless it also showed 0 tricks on defense or something, and even then I'd be skeptical... I'd rather do it on a better offensive or defensive hand. In general I try not to assume non standard agreements that OP does not specify that would show my hand exactly though.

Yes it was. Depends on your definition of a bad spot. (It was the wrong spot obviously.) uhh can't think of any rational definitions of "bad spot" that this doesn't fit...

I asked han to do a double dummy simulation on how well we fare with this hand opposite a hand that would pass a limit raise (since I would bid game). To constrain this, I said 5(332) 12-13 or 11 with 5 controls, 5(422) 11-12, or 5(431) 12-13 if the stiff was stiff Q or stiff K. I felt these constraints were pretty good, if anything they favored making a limit raise because not all 5422 11s are opening hands. Results: 10+ tricks: 35 % 9 tricks: 46 % 8- tricks: 19 % This means bidding 4S instead of 3S loses you an expected .58 imps assuming the opps are going to always pass. In my opinion you will gain this up based on: 1) The opponents are pretty much forced to bid over a w/r 4S bid with short spades and an opening hand. This can backfire sometimes (you get doubled and go for 300), but I think this will work in your favor very often, if they bid something you can double them, and if they double you and partner has anything extra you will usually be making. 4S is going to put a lot more pressure on them than a limit raise where they can usually just pass without fear of being stolen from. 2) Given how tight the constraints are to pass a limit raise, the truth is partner doesn't pass it very much. Because of this, the majority of the time the effect of the 4S bid is going to be to give them less info about partners hand (they won't know if he has a minimum or not during the play), and give them much less information for their opening lead. It would be unusual to make a very attacking lead vs 1S p 3S p 4S, but it would be pretty normal to attack after 1S p 4S. The effect of giving them less information to work with will be that they lead and defend worse, and you make game more often. 3) You will make game a lot more than double dummy simulation would indicate, because of your natural advantage as declarer, and because of your presumed skill advantage, and because of how often blind leads can be suboptimal. 4) I have written about this before, but in general the pressure of always making bids like this that make life hard for the opponents in both the auction and the play, and always being in thin games like this is going to cause them to make more mistakes than they usually make, and perhaps cause them to crack emotionally. Call me crazy, but putting constant pressure on them by doing stuff like this is a winning style. Hopefully this simulation shows how utterly terrible making a single raise is, you are 81 % to make 3S on hands partner PASSES a limit raise with, and 35 % to make game on those hands. Imagine how often you will make game on the huge range of hands between a minimum game try over 1S-2S, and a pass of a limit raise. Also note that not bidding game would be a clear error if you were vulnerable. Last thing... some people worry about missing slam when you have a hand like this but I think that concern is overrated. Still, it's possible that you miss a slam by bidding 4S that you would find by making a LR. Also, Adam aren't you the one who often complains about poll choices not having at least an "other" option because viable options are often left out of the poll?

Ok...confirmed han was correct, the way I tried to use empty spaces on this hand was bullshit. The answer on this hand is to simply not use empty spaces, and to do what I did in my first post, and just look at possible shapes. All shapes are not created equal(ly likely), but since there are far more where LHO has 1-2 hearts than where they have a void, it can't be right to play LHO for a void.

Well han says I cannot use empty spaces like this so we are discussing it lol... Han is always right though.

lol

Using quidditys rule of empty spaces calculator assuming RHO has 4 empty spaces, and LHO has 3 empty spaces I got: ~28.5 % QT/Q on left ~11.4 % for void on left In fact, stiff Q alone is far more likely than a void on the left, which seems right to me given that I think there are 3 shapes where it's stiff Q vs 2 shapes where it's void. I don't think there is nearly enough clues about the high card points to overcome that. Plus, a non expert RHO is going to cover the HJ probably a lot of the time when they have QTx (at least >0 %), so that is more of a reason to not run the HJ if it gets ducked.

double?

This is not a good way of doing it. It ignores that west is never 5071, or 4072, or 1075 or even 0076 etc Also, west always has at least one spade honor here. Definitely don't play west for a heart void, the only time they will have one is if they're 3073, or 2074, and that is far less likely than west being 2173, 1174, 3172 with stiff Q or 2272, 1273, with QT doubleton. Stiff spade is maybe discounted since if it was the stiff A it might have gotten led, but stiff K never would (stiff small is impossible since righty would shift to a high spade). red/white I wouldn't put much stock into the fact that LHO might open 1D with SA, DKQ, and HQ, especially when the HQ is short, but it's possible with all that + the CJ, 1D would be opened. I think it is more likely that a hand with a void and the SA and DKQ and CJ would be opened 1D, especially Ax --- KQxxxxx Jxxx, so we can discount both. I think a void is just as likely to open aggressively at the 1 level as stiff Q or QT doubleton is basically. Still there are just way more hands where it is right to play for the drop in hearts. EDIT: Also if you want to do empty spaces, it seems to me like we know righty has 5 clubs at least (else LHO has 5 clubs), and we know righty has 2 spades at least (else LHO has 4 spades), and we know RHO has 2 diamonds. So we "know" 9 of his cards, compared to LHO who we know has 7 diamonds, 2 clubs (else he would lead his stiff club since it's not an honor), and 1 spade. So we "know" 10 of his cards. 10-9 is not much.

I think the bidding system is pretty bad over 1C X 1N p ? In particular, 2C has a very wide range, so wide that gib bid over it with QJxx QTxx xxx Qx, and 3C is forcing. Also if you could define 3M as a splinter over this 1N, that would be nice.

Bidding is absolutely ridiculous