Well 30 was certainly a mistake (as was the previous more than 50). However after checking each deal of the 100 produced, the hand was E/W's only 40% of the time and N/S had a better contract about the other 60%. On 26 hands N/S had game (on 3 of those there was a slam), either 4♥ or 4♠ but it wasn't always easily reached, however the hand did belong to N/S. In fact in the actual hand 4♠ can be made on a non-diamond lead if North plays it or almost any lead if South is the declarer. I still lean to pass as the best option but it would depend a bit on the opposition (would they bid on KQxx Txx xxx xxx?). This has also taught me that you cannot forget the other Major after this sort of auction (the 1NTer usually doesn't have 4 spades) and probably doubling 1NT for take-out (when you have some 'support' for spades) and responding to the double by bidding the other Major instead of giving support with only 2 (or sometimes 3) cards is the best policy.
I ran a simulation in dmpro, though it's not easy setting the constraints. For example, on the second simulation I got a hand where responder held KQTxx in spades which I for one wouldn't pass. All in all it seems only about 30% of the hands give the opening side game in spades. It isn't a small number though.
Exactly and that's why I think pass is the best option. As you suggest 1NT is unlikely to be met with 2♠ from opener but when it is and they have a fit we were surely better off in 1♥. I think a simulation is in order and I bet Pass is better, especially when they play Flannery.
My choices are Pass, 1NT and 2♣ (in that order). I don't like the idea of bidding on Jx of spades for the opening side might easily have a better fit in spades than in hearts and then I would only be helping them by bidding. This idea I read in Mike Lawrence's book on balancing (though I confess I only finished the first chapter).
I draw trumps. I don't know of any way to make the hand if spades are worse than 4-2, the important play of the hand was discarding the heart on the second diamond, now the hand should make about 70% of the time.
This discussion went away from its original idea. If you invite with that hand or not wasn't exactly what I wanted to know (although I agree that it is a little too much). The is what try wouldyou use. My partner at the table used 2NT and I agree with whoever said that responder should/could bid the suit where he had 'help'. I failed to see this (I as responder would have bid 3♣ and my partner would have passed) but I think partner should have bid 3♦ (asking for help) or 3♥ (if it shows 4 cards, giving the choice between 4♥ and 4♠).
I have found useful to open 3rd hand with very minimum hands and on this I would open 1♦. I don't like pre-empting with a side 4-card major, even when partner passed at his first opportunity. Of course RHO's hesitation influences my bid.
All red, you open 1♠ 4th seat: ♠QJ9xx ♥KQJx ♦Axx ♣x Your partner raises to 2♠ and opponents remain silent. Do you invite or get to game or pass? How would you like to invite?
[hv=d=w&v=b&s=shj8daj9xxxca9xxx]133|100|Scoring: MP[/hv] Partner opens 1♥, RHO overcalls 1♠, you bid 2♦(!), Pass to your left and 4 Hearts from partner and it's your turn again. 2♦ might not be very orthodox, or is it? Do you go on? How? What 3rd bid are you preparing?
[hv=d=s&v=n&s=sqjt9haqjt96dtctx]133|100|Scoring: MP[/hv] Your partner deals and opens 1♣, RHO overcalls 1♠, you bid 2♥ (!), 4♠ on your left and 5♣ from partner. 2♥ was probably not orthodox, I'm not sure, but there you are, what do you bid now?
Red vs white I held: ♠AK98xx ♥QJxxx ♦Q ♣Q Bidding goes: Pass 1♠ 2♣ 2NT Pass 3♥ Pass 3NT Pass ??? What would you have bid? Maybe I should have bid 4♥ on my second turn. Another question, doesn't 3♥ show 5 cards? Doesn't 2NT deny 4 heart cards?