hand 1] Well given LOTT, our 9 card fit, the great value of my high cards to partner, my short suits for ruffing ....I pass and try and beat 3♦ hand 2] I owe partner a call 2♠
♠♠ okay say you try 2♦ and one of the following is an auction around the table (1♠) 2♦ (2♠) pass; (4♠) ? (1♠) 2♦ (3♦) pass; (4♠) ? (1♠) 2♦ (4♦) pass; (4♠) ? (1♠) 2♦ (3♠) pass; (4♠) ? (1♠) 2♦ (4♠) pass; pass ? so now what do you do? note that 5♦ here foists the decision on them and it could very well be a bad one especially if you are willing to risk an X of 5♠
So what are you trying to achieve by passing 3♦ the best partial? IMO the 3♦ caller ought to bail at 3♣ with a really weak hand even with a long ♦ suit or accept that any call (s)he makes will be a game forcing one. Since IMO the 3♦ call is forcing; passing it is a clear error.
This X is playable as penalty but needs agreement since the Meta-agreement policy for this forum is all Xs are TO except penalty by specific agreement :)
a simple yes or no answer is not possible because this depends entirely on your agreements. So if you have agreed to open any 11 HCP hand yes if you have agreed to play 2/1 I would say no.
I guess fairly evenly divided is not clear enough. I was suggesting the average value of the other 3 hands is 7.333333 so you are probably facing somewhere between 5 and 9 HCP as for 10-10-2 that is pretty much against the odds if you are singling out partner for the 2 and as any simul will probably show.
It is not a lie for me but the OP says 2♠ promises 4 in his system. I am advocating bidding 2♠ even tho it promises 4. And you should be trying to solve his problem because nobody here (well at least me) gives a sh-- how you play 2♠ in your system. Maybe you are suggesting the OP should modify his system...if so just SAY SO.
I think double is the %age call but 2NT or even 3NT are within reason as the remaining HCP appear to be fairly evenly divided as I am in 4th seat after 3 passes