PhantomSac

Good questions, imo by far in bridge the least understood concept is how to bid over a jumpshift. Why do we bid 3H? Because we could belong in hearts Partner could have 6 hearts easily. If we bid 3N, partner will not know if we have 0 (4036), 1 (any number of shapes but 4135 etc), or 2 hearts. So if he has 6 hearts, he will have a hard time bidding 4H over 3N. This is especially true if his hearts aren't great, and given that we have the king, they probably won't be. Also, on many hands the 5-2 heart fit will be right, and we certainly can't get there after 3N. Because we could belong in diamonds Partner could have 5-5 very easily, and we might belong in diamonds. Partner would need an extremely strong hand to bid 4D over 3N, after all, we could have 4225 with only black cards etc. Over 3H he will have a much easier time rebidding 4D if we bid 3H and he has some concentrated 5-5. Because we could belong in spades Nothing is to stop partner from having 3 spades. If we bid 3N, he's not going to bid 4S since we have not shown 5 of them. If we bid 3H, we have a much better shot of ending in spades when it's right (note if you bid 3H and partner bids 3S, this could be a doubleton honor, so you should bid 3N. However you have now shown some doubt and partner with a concentrated 3541 and especially with 3550 will pull.) Because we could belong in slam Our hand is very strong opposite a red 2 suiter. This is going to be especially true if our CK is working. If we bid 3N, our hand could be as weak as QJTx xx xx QJTxx. Parnter is not going to move for slam over it. Because if we belong in NT, we can still easily get there over 3H We have lots of room. If partner has some black cards, or at least club cards, eg 1543 or 2542, he will always bid 3N. If he has 2542 with no spade stopper it can go 3S-3N. This gets us to the crux of the matter: Because 3H does not preclude any strain or level, and 3N often will. Jumpshift auctions are bulky, a lot of room has been used up to create a GF, and many shapes are still possible for opener. Bidding 3H on a doubleton saves room, and allows for an intelligent investigation of strain and level, which is perfect since we have 4 possible strains, and possible slam. This is a prototypical hand where you should be bidding 3H on a doubleton. If you want, try to construct some hands for partner, and you will see how easy it is for slam to be right, other strains to be right, and NT to be wrong (hint: short spades with partner puts 3N in jeopardy, while pretty much making slam cold).

Wow fred made one of the best posts I've ever seen on this forum in this thread, would reccommend people check it out if they want.

Manu, basically it comes down to a math problem. On this hand, ignoring the chance of a falsecard from QJx, if you play diamonds from the top you make on QJ doubleton of diamonds, or the club hook. If you go for restricted choice you make on Hxx of diamonds, or Kx of clubs onside (or stiff king). Since Hxx of diamonds is ~twice as likely as QJ doubleton, and the club hook onside is 50/50, that is ~ a wash. Which means playing restricted choice gives you the additional chance of stiff K or Kx of clubs onside. As someone else said, there is the possibilty that LHO has QJx of diamonds and falsecarded. Still Kx or stiff K of clubs onside is not insignificant, so they'd have to find that falsecard a huge amount of the time that they have that combo to make it percentage to bang down the diamonds. Finally, as someone else said, there is a problem with your example hand...you should clearly win the spade lead and hook the club. Basically you do something productive with your SA entry (take a finesse), rather than something useless (play a diamond, when you could have played one from your hand anyways). But in general the process is always the same, just calculate which combination gives you the highest chance of success. In general remember that restricted choice is almost 2:1 as likely, so in a pure example if you lost a finesse because of playing restricted choice, the plays are almost even.

Yeah probably though 3D seems acceptable though, the difference is you're probably gonna need to get 500 to show a substantial gain since 3D is a sure plus, but partner will pass your double less often at imps so I can't really see them making it very often when he does.

They are both passed hands so far so I'm not as concerned with them coming in...if LHO was not a passed hand I'd consider strongly consider texas as a two way shot to shut them out effectively and maybe it makes. I dunno I'm still really concerned if I transfer that LHO will come in and we'll have to save in 4H over their partscore. But it seems dumb to texas and go down when they've just passed. Guess I would transfer and bid 3H, again inviting is effective as a preempt (surely LHO will balance at least?), and I'm more likely to go plus as well (if partner passes an invite, game probably sucks). I found this hand to be quite interesting esp cuz it's w/w MP.

4S is obv... if I had 2C then 2S available the first time as a shapely invite I would have considered it, but perhaps this is slightly too weak esp NV. I remember the 2nd one so I won't comment.

I would X, 5D could be the winner though but it seems like a crap shoot.

wow, all serious comments so far... lemme offer up an LOL for bidding anything now. 2D is fine of course, what else could you do?

3D then change system.

I had a dream that 655321 made a post and was WRONG. I was crushed, it was like learning santa wasn't real all over again. I woke up in a sweat...luckily it was all a dream.

xxx KQ AKxx xxxx. Answering what partner "should" have, I don't know the players so I assume what they should and do have are similar. More generally, partner has a strong doubleton heart and very good diamonds, enough to make game playable opposite hearts + diamonds. On the other hand his clubs are very poor, and if partner has clubs we don't want to go beyond partscore. For instance xx AJTxx Qxxxx x is a very good 4H, but xx AJTxx x Qxxxx does not want to go beyond a partscore.

I'd double also, seems pretty lol with a 9 count but this hand has not only aces but ridiculously amazing spots, a club void etc just seems like I have to bid.

I would almost rather pass 2S than bid 3D if those were my only choices, since we probably beat them 2 enough of the time Oo

:D Game of percentages obv.

Wow not Xing here is terrible imo. they are red, it's MP, we have lots of them HCP thingies, partner has those spade thingies, LHO is a passed hand so he doesn't have the nuts and is unlikely to have 6 spades...yay! We beat 2S X soooooo often. Edit: Wow some of you say partner shows a double stopper in spades... and you still aren't doubling them?!?!?! WOW. If you think he's shown a double spade stopper then obv double. He didn't even make a support X so our QJ of hearts is good defense. If you think he has shown a max and could have one spade stopper since it's MP white then obv X. I see why people overbid so much when vul in competitive auctions at MP...people don't even double. In reality if people doubled as often as they should then people would be much more cautious in competitive auctions vul at MP than vul at imps... and if that day were to ever come then maybe this wouldn't be a double (ok it still would, but you get my point!).

What? edit: Sorry beginner/int forum. IMO Jdonn is right on the mark, when partner shows both minors and short hearts, north has a monster for diamonds. Not only 6 trumps, but a doubleton club is huge, and A A K is very nice. On top of that, if partner isnt 55 in the minors (which makes our hand HUGEEEEEE), they have 3 spades, in which case even our doubleton spade is working! Think about some hands like: Axx x Axxx Kxxxx This is only 11, albeit a very nice one, and 6D is very very good. Alternatively partner might have something like xxx x AJxx KJxxx. This hand would bid this way, and 3N might go down on a bad spade split, while 5D is a near lock. Partner might even bid this way with Ax x QJxxx Kxxxx where 3N has no play on a spade lead, while 5D is cold. Etc etc, I really think bidding 3N is a poor choice. The doubletons and lack of spade values and the 6th trump and the prime values all argue strongly for avoiding 3N, and moving towards slam at the same time.

Pretty sure a passive lead always wins vs 6N heh. Aggressive leads generally win in polls vs suit slams because usually they are making unless you have some nasty surprise for them if you defend passively. The best thing you have going for you is the initiative, so that you can set up a trick and hopefully get in and cash your trick before stuff goes away. On this hand we have a stiff trump, and if I thought they were 4-1 for the opps I would go passive on the basis that we might beat them with passive defense since that is a nice surprise for them that will help us. Here they super accepted so I don't really think that's the case. We have xxx diamonds, that looks quite bad for us. If they were in a close slam, that will probably help them make. So I'm hoping to set up a trick. A club is better for that because we're shorter, but it requires more from partner, basically the KQ or the KJ over the Q maybe (the K over dummy's ace seems unlikely given that LHO didn't bid 5C). KTxx would be a clear winner over xxxxx to me. Also, hopefully LHO won't have a stiff spade since they didn't bid 4S, in which case my length will not increase the chance that even if we hit partner's queen we don't set up a trick (which is the downside of length). Thus a spade seems right to me for setting up a trick, and that seems like the right plan to me (and as you said, is the default plan vs 6 of a suit unless you have some reason to think you will beat it on passive defense). It seems like a much more narrow target to try to beat them on passive defense and fear a layout where a spade gives them their 12th trick (because if passive defense beats it, we might just have 2 tricks in the red suits or whatever and the spade didn't hurt us), than to try and set up a trick then get in and cash that trick. Obv it's possible they're just on a spade hook or something and a spade lead sets it, but it seems less likely than the times we gain. I don't understand your comment though, were you implying that people always lead aggro vs 6 of a suit on paper even though it's anti percentage or that they wouldn't do it at the table? Maybe it's antipercentage, but it is the current conventional wisdom and it is what most experts do at the table ime, so I don't think anyone is being disingenuous.

Obv open, why wouldn't you?

Good job everyone.

I hate a style where this is a 2S bid. I would pass or open 1S depending on partnership style for opening bids (greatly prefer a style where I can open 1S). That being said, many successful players play a style where this is a 2S bid, most notably fred and brad are known for opening weak 2s on some strange (to most) hands. Basically I am not a fan of weak 2 bids with a huge amount of defense, I feel like partner will often judge wrong in common situations (like whether to save).

Those hands don't seem similar to me at all. After 1N we are very tightly defined in HCP and shape, and partner had many ways to invite us to 7, as well as ways to infer that we were not off aces/keycards. This hand is a pass to me, we could be cold for 7 but partner is under pressure and might have just guessed something.

How about just bidding 4N as your slam try? When you don't care about parnters club support much (Kx is fine etc), and usually having something like AKxx is not that beneficial, I think bidding 4N is fine as a slam try, but most people think thats weird and show a slam try in clubs. FWIW I would just bid 3N.

3H, whats the problem? I don't even see the wide range, maybe its because I don't make a neg X with pieces of crap but I am happy to just bid 4H with a wide range, 3H is usually a weak NT hand type. Even if 4H cannot make they might accept the trnasfer with 4S.

The same hand without the SJ is quite reasonable to me. I mean tbh you are probably right it doesn't exist, but I think ti would be reasonable with Axx AKxx x Axxxx to pass and then try 4S. Ofc you could bid 3N to begin with, or just 4H the second time, but pass then 4S is reasonable imo. 5N rather than 5S is really unclear to me, in fact I don't agree with you, I think 5N should be reserved as a "pick a slam" move. Getting to 7 should have low priority over getting to the right suit, especially when no suit is agreed yet, and south has a very wide range of shapes, and north has a pretty wide range. In that context, 5S agreeing hearts and trying for 7 while being control unspecific is pretty plausible to me. Obv I've never discussed this with my partners, but it's possible to me that this is what what south was thinking. As I said earlier, whatever was happening, I think north should just say if partner is trying for 7 I have to have what he's looking for. Clearly 5S says at least that south is interested in 7. Everything is pretty ambiguous though since it's a possibly impossible and definitely improbable auction to ever have.

I mean being r/w in theory makes it kinda tough, maybe they opened 7H on some joker hand. In real life unless LHO is hrothgar, 7H usually is the nuts, and not some kind of save or whatever lol, and theyre not using game theory to exploit you. In the real world 7H opener is to make, so 7S is a good bid, imo.