PhantomSac

LOL jk I love you but AQTx AJxx >>>> AQx AJTxx imo opposite a 3H opener when trying to make slam and it's not really close. If partner had Kx of one suit and x of the other, which would you want each to be? At best you are grossly exagerating... How can he have Kx and a stiff and a club control? Or are you just hoping for no club lead. Anyways, if he had Kx of one and stiff of the other, Kx of spades is not that bad, we're on a hook!

This seems to imply that they will get their ruff 100 % of the time when it's available. That seems really high to me. I'd guess it's closer to 0 % than 100 % tbh. They won't ever be able to read the count because we have the 2. IF LHO has 1 spade and 3 hearts and diamonds are not 3-3 then: If RHO has Hx of diamonds they'll go diamond diamond probably. If LHO has Hx of diamonds, the defense may block the suit or go wrong. If RHO Has Kxx of diamonds, LHOs second diamond play may be the ace. etc etc. For RHO to be on lead on the 2nd diamond already takes a fair amount. Of course LHO should try to induce this, and he might, but he might not. Even if he does, RHO might go wrong thinking I cannot have 3 spades and 6 hearts and play this way. It's possible RHO will think deeply about it and realize my line is bad with 2641 (why pitch a diamond esp before I know trumps are 2-2), but that requires deeper thinking than how can i give them this opportunity etc etc. My estimate of them getting the ruff was like 10 % heh, but 100 % seems like a real overbid.

You play strong club, others play natural (yes I bid 1H-2H in strong club lol).

LOL jk I love you but AQTx AJxx >>>> AQx AJTxx imo opposite a 3H opener when trying to make slam and it's not really close.

Yeah, you are vul. Question to everyone: When LHO has a stiff spade, what %age of the times will the opponents get their ruff after you play a spade?

2nd board out out of 8. You do feel like you have a pretty big edge on this team.

In this ridiculous scale, if you lose by 1 it is a 12-18 loss (meaning they beat us in the event). So if we lose by 1 or 2 without the overtricks, then the overtricks would have meant we beat them in the event rather than lose to them in the event. Any other time, the 2 imps would be irrelevant for us beating them in the event. So I'd say if the 118 team didn't exist, it would change things a lot. However with the 118 team in the game, the extra VP from 2 imps is another possible bonus for this play in terms of winning the event.

Usually it's a strong inference when they don't lead a sitff, but when they have a good club sequence, and dummy has bid their stiff, it seems like that is less of an inference than usual. Also with RHO having short hearts, the likelihood of him having 4 spades goes up obv.

well, nobody cares about me saying so, but I insist :), for your 2 suiter to be worth showing at the 5 level opposite a 1 suiter overcall, it needs to be very extreme, like 6-6. For a 5 club natural bid to be ok you require much less. agree

When I learned bergen 1M-4D was a good 1-4? I feel like in standard methods you have to have a good 1-4 or this hand type will always be a problem. Even giving a LR and then bidding again is not great, I mean for starters they were able to bid 3D and catch a raise from pard...

[hv=n=saqj7xht97dxxxcax&s=s982hakqj86dqxxck]133|200|Scoring: IMP[/hv] 1H-1S-2H-4H. CQ lead. You win the king, heart to dummy, cash a club pitching a diamond, and lead a heart to the ace, RHO shows out. You are playing swiss teams, it's the last match, opps are average plus but not amazing. They play standard leads and carding You have 122 VPs, they have 119 VPs, there is another team who is good with 118 VPs playing another team that is good. You are using a 30 VP ACBL scale. How do you proceed?

Qxx KQ9x T9xxx A r/r imps. You open 1D precision style, 1S on left, 2C from pard (F1), 2S on right, p p X p ? You know your RHO is fairly sound, and your LHO is fairly unsound. First board of a swiss match.

TILT

you need to do some calculations if you think AKJTxxxx is substanially inferior to AKQxxxx How about... if partner has a stiff then AKJTxxxx is about 15 % less likely to run than AKQxxxx? That is quite significant and not that unlikely of a scenario.

Can people construct a hand where 7H is not good? Kx Kxxxxx AKQx x is the best I could come up with. That hand is quite unlikely given that LHO showed the minors, but I guess it's possible. Seems much more likely partner has AK K in the majors with a stiff club and some diamond cards like 95+ % of the time.

I would certainly have bid 7H over 5C, and expected it to be a claimer. Now I would bid 7H.

Are you saying that you didn't ruff your spade loser? If so, I can't see how anybody would have been squeezed. I played: C ruffed, DA, 3 rounds of spades ruff with jack, then trumps (keeping 1). Just saying leaving the high spade as the squeeze card instead of the more natural trump is better because it gives them more chance to tell you something useful (by either pitching their spade, or not pitching their spade). Maybe that is obvious though.

This was fine. If you play very aggressive preempts combined with very light openers you might open 1H, and likely still miss slam, but to me this is a normal auction.

Seems like a down the middle 4C opener at this vul.

RHO had 4 spades and 1 diamond. On the penultimate trump, he pitched a club, keeping his spade loser, so I knew he hadn't stiffed the ace so it was auto to pin leftys jack later. Maybe there is a lesson there in playing the trump before the spade heh (had I stripped him of his spade loser first, this inference wouldn't have been available).

Despite my overwhelming extra values and great trumps, I'm gonna try a pass here.

I feel like I'm pretty aggressive at Xing in these spots, and I wouldn't have doubled with either persons hand. I wouldn't even consider it with the weaker hand.

I am really tempted to pass here at MP. Actually I would. Not to sound like whereagles but it seems really likely partner has short clubs. I will look very foolish on some layouts, oh well, that's what MP is about right? ;)

I take these comments to mean that the forum has an area of group think and many idiosyncrasies that do not exist in the general bridge population. For sure forum standard in many situations is different from normal bridge standard. As you said though, this is a clear opener.

It's on the heavy side for 3S I guess since partner can pass on hands we have game but that's my bid.