jogs

Forget to add. I would have open 2♥ and bid clubs if given a chance. 2♥ - 4♠ - 5♥ - 5♠ pass - pass - X - pass ? Now it is a easy pass, since I promised no defense.

Is there another popular game which has this UI problem? Does partner's doubling slowly change the meaning of the bid? I agree. A double just says it is our hand. Now the question is should any pair who hesitates be automatically penalized?

Obviously I don't agree with that statement. It's all about the bell curve, 30-40-30. 30% of the boards are lucky. 40% of the board produce about the same number of tricks as trumps. 30% of the boards are unlucky. If we are able to identify the unlucky boards, we will know when to bid less. A singleton in partner's likely six card increases the chances of this being an unlucky board. Only two points in our two five-card suits is negative purity, also unlucky. Qx in opponents' suit. 3 unlucky features on this board. Good chances bidding less will work well on this board.

This thread is really about a contested auction. Whether one is playing SAYC, 2/1, or some other system doesn't affect the responses.

Strange a few of you think the double is clearcut. Now let's look at the bidding from partner's point of view. --------- 1♥ - 2♣ 2♥ - X - p - ? 1. xxx, Kx, Ax, KQT9xx What should partner bid? 2. Kxx, xx, Ax, KQT9xx What should partner bid? 2♠ will probably fare worst than defending 2♥ is both cases. Qx of hearts is better for defense than offense. If partner has Kx, xxx, Ax, KQT9xx, we may lose 5 or 6 tricks in clubs. 2♥ may even fail. The main advantage of the double is to push opponents to 3♥. We don't really want to declare pass the 2♣ level.

'Looks' like an unlucky board for us. Our partnership pattern is most likely 7=5=7=7. Our spades are weak. Clubs if partner has KQTxxx or better is probably our best strain. Don't want to encourage partner to lead spades against 2♥ or 3♥. Pass is my choice. Just take our likely -110, -140 or +100. If forced to call, prefer double over 2♠.

2♠. I like XX guarantees tolerance for my suit. Therefore XX has at least two spades. Little point in bidding 2♥ since doubler usually has four and I rather play in a 6-2 fit than a 4-4 fit.

I think Helgemo should have passed 2♠. On boards where opponents open our side rarely has 9 tricks based solely on HCP. When we have 9 tricks, it is usually due to a long running suit. Of the set of hands which East can hold on this bidding very few would make game opposite Helgemo's hand.

Would 2♠ also be down?

2♦ with this suit and hand. Jxx xx KJ97x Kxx Now the best action would be less clear.

Hand evaluation model Nearly all systems evaluate a hand from the viewpoint of one player and in terms of points. These points are usually high card points with adjustments for shortness in the side suits or additional points for length. It is time for players to attempt to assess the value of his hand in terms of playing tricks for the partnership. This assessment is a dynamic number which changes as the location of more of the other 39 cards is revealed. The estimate of our playing tricks is dynamic not static. Before one removes his cards from the tray, the expected tricks is 6 1/2. We expect to win half of the available 13 tricks. Remove the cards and sort the hand. Tally our points. The estimate of our expected tricks is not a single value. It is a set of values depending on the strain of the final contract. This estimate also has a margin of error depending on the location of the other 39 cards. The standard deviation of the error is nearly 3 tricks. When we know the strain and the combined partnership HCP the s.d. is from 1.5 to 2 tricks. When we also know the sum of our combined trumps the s.d. drops to 1 to 1.25 tricks. The 2nd estimate of tricks. E(tricks) = trumps + (HCP - 20)/3 + e Trumps is the total combined trumps of the partnership. (HCP - 20)/3 means for every HCP over 20 assign another 1/3 trick to the estimate. 'e' is the error of the estimates. The third variable for estimating tricks is flatness/skewness. With sufficient trumps well placed singletons and voids can be worth additional tricks. Additional length in the side suit can also produce extra tricks. Every new variable adds another term to the equation for estimating tricks.

This bidding 42% vul games is based on making or down one. It does not account for making or down three or more.

1. 1♠ - 2♣ 2♠ 2. 2♠ - 2♣ 2NT 3. 2♠ - 2♣ 3♣ In the following auctions what set of hands would each include? How much does the 2♠ rebid suggests 6 spades? Would partner rebid 2NT with 5332 min? 5=3=1=4. Isn't this a 3♣ rebid? Rik's pass of 3NT is not unreasonable. Sounds like at best a 50/50 slam.

Why didn't he just pass 2♠? The difference between right and wrong would be only one trick and it would be East's problem.

I held a similar hand in a sectional against strong opponents. None, as dealer I held Qxxx, xx, __ , KQT9xxx 4♣ - X - p - 4♥ 4♠ - 5♥ - 5♠ - all pass 5♠ went down one. At the other table our teammates played 4♥ making.

At the table if LHO would be declarer, partner would be on lead. The point is the bid(3♦ or 3♣) is warning partner not to lead from AQ. I do not have the king. No, that would defeat much of the advantage of the fit bid. We want partner to know our second suit. The non jump fit bid is usually 3-card support. It could be 4-card support with a flat hand also.

Think partner is on lead in one of these auctions. Easier to tell at the table.

Also forgot to add fit showing only applies to bids up to 4♦. 4♥ and 4♠ out of the blue is to play.

There is minor case for a major after a minor to play not promising a fit. This game is about the majors. Did your partner find you with spades on this board? Yes, but were you able to land on your feet. xx, Jxx, KQxx, Kxxx. This is the type of hand Robson/Segal recommends for non jump fit bid. They have the higher ranking strain. We have support for partner but would rather have a diamond lead against 3♠.

This makes 3NT a clearcut bid. End the auction. Move on to the next board.

Dump both J2NT and Bergen raises. Play fit showing jumps both in contested and uncontested auctions. 1♥ - 3♣ 3♣ is fit showing, 5+ clubs and 4 hearts. Then maybe the partnership would be able to count the 12 tricks.

I second this post. Fit jumps don't apply to this auction. FJs are used in contested auctions where opponent's have interfered before responder or advancer has had a chance to act.

Back it up to the 2♠ call. Prefer 2♠ as minor suit system. Like finding our suit first. 2nd choice lower range is not 11-12 HCP. Lower range is 3 controls or fewer. Any notrump with two aces may be slam going. Notrumps with too many queens and jacks are poor for slams.

Isn't 3NT the best contract? 5♦ can lose a heart, diamond and a club.

Agree, this hand plays better from our side. -------♦ Qxx ♦ AJ98xx------ ♦ xx -------♦ KT Rather have LHO lead a diamond than RHO lead a diamond. No reason to believe 4♥ makes more often than 3NT.