jogs

I'm with you. Now pard should lead a diamond instead of the club.

Change the hand to ♠ K98764 ♥ 9 ♦ T7 ♣ KT32 I would bid 4♠. Are you familiar with the East player? If East is conservative, bid 4♠. If not, pass.

If this were coin tossing, 45 successes out of 66 attempts would be statistically significant. Case closed. Bidding theory is evolving. Over 17 years each observation isn't taken from the same controlled population. In 1996 the Spingold was a competition mostly with Americans. Today it is an international event. The field is much stronger than ever. In 1996 online bridge was in its infancy. Americans found that younger, foreign players are more willing to interfere with their auctions. And it isn't easy to penalize them. Today auctions are contested nearly 50% of the time. Opponents even interfere with slam auctions. Over the last 17 years slam bidding has probably improved during uncontested auctions. Only today many more slam auctions are contested. There is not one homogeneous population. There are two separate populations. One for uncontested auctions. And another for contested auctions. In today's game a ever greater number of observations are from the contested auctions. In this second population slam bidding is more precarious and less precise.

You're going too far back. That was then. This is now. Only interested in 2. and 3. The world started bidding aggressively about 20 years ago. Do the survey on your own team games. Come back with results after 10 double session swiss teams. My survey was from the 2011 USBC and 2012 USBC. Used only the semi-finals and finals matches.

Each side holds 32 or more points one out of 150 boards. Skewed patterns makes slams possible about one out of 40 boards. Some pairs bid slams nearly one out of 20 boards. Do a real study. Prove that I'm wrong. You never know whether opponents have bid slam. There are frequent observations which one team bid slam down one when their opponents didn't even find game. On only one out of 150 boards is it clear to bid slam based on power(points).

I tracked a few of JLOGIC's team matches which were posted on BBO. Also other team matches from those events.

Sounds good, but in real life it doesn't work. One never knows for certain the exact situation. Even at the highest level when one team is in slam and the other isn't, the non slam team has been the net winner.

I too would pass 4NT. Think EW can hold you to 9 tricks in spades. East must allow West to win a diamond and lead a trump. It is possible for opener to bid 5♠ if you started with a fit showing 4♥ call. Fit showing is 9 cards in two suits. Usually it is 5-4 with 5 in the bid suit. But it can also be 4-5 or 6-3.

For your question post #2 by JLOGIC is correct(50%). If you had asked LHO known to have the king with no stipulation of number of trumps, then RHO would have 13 slots for the ten and LHO would have 12 slots. LHO would have the ten 12/25ths of the time.

3433 facing 4432. The 4-4 heart fit wins about 0.5 more tricks than 3NT. In the long run 3NT is the winner. There needs to be doubletons in two different suits before 4-4 fit wins one full trick more than NT. 3424 facing 4432.

This is a probability game. With 4333 after partner opens 1NT, the 4-4 fit makes 0.5 tricks more than NT. 4M requires one full extra trick. Just bid 3NT. Of course, opponents can easily run five tricks off the top in some suit. In the long run you win more imps by going with the odds.

Marlowe's auction is very reasonable. After 1♠-2♣ a misfit is very possible. Responder has wasted values in clubs. Unless responder's clubs are Axxxx, most of his HCP wont help you. Responder needs KQ of diamonds. Do you really want to be in a diamond slam with one sure trump loser? In nearly 10% of the boards some expert is bidding slam. Unfortunately in only 5% of the boards is there a reasonable play for slam.

Give partner ♠x ♥AKxxx ♦xxx ♣Axxx. Which is the better contract? 4♥ or 4♠?

I think Rodwell nailed it. Why play bergen? The LAW does not protect overbidding. Don't play 3M as preemptive. Don't play bergen without comp. Play 3♣/3♦ as a fit jump with or without competition. Only without competition it is forcing to game and suggests at least mild interest in slam.

That's what I like. Never bid 2NT directly after a 2♣ opening.

Do you mean never 3 spades? With 4333, 2♠ is high enough. Oftentimes, even with 4432 2♠ is high enough. Hand from the past. 3424 with 7 HCP. 1♥-3♣, 3♥ all pass. 3♥-1. It was a push. Opponents were also playing bergen. 1♥-2♥ all pass, would have been a winner.

What's 1♣? Is it a forcing club? Is that why pard didn't pass 2♣? And if 2♣ is stayman, why didn't pard rebid 2♦?

There's a lot of luck in this game. Too many people think they can control everything. My thoughts is: if partner is interested in slam and I'm interested in slam just bid it. Maybe it makes and maybe it doesn't. When it doesn't, if we haven't given too much info, maybe opponents will misdefend.

When trumps are awful or the suit breaks badly both the 4-4 major and 3NT will often fail. 3NT only makes when there is a source of tricks, usually meaning a side five card suit.

I second this response. Would add 4♥ implies doubleton heart with honor(queen or higher).

I thought MUD only applies to auctions where our side did not compete.

I have no aversion to rebidding 1NT with 1=3=5=4 or 1=4=4=4. With 15+ HCP 1NT isn't a viable option. FSF is really a convention to facilitate major suit bidding. Most bidding systems aren't designed for minors. Major suits are too valuable to squander as artificial. 1♣-1♦, 1♥-1♠ and 1♦-1♠,2♣-2♥ should both be natural. We can ill afford to lose a major suit. 5=5=1=2. ♠Q8642 ♥KQT93 ♦5 ♣75. 1♦-1♠, 2♣-2♠???? I refuse to play any system which requires responder to bid spades and rebid spades with this hand.

♠K6542 ♥K9852 ♦8 ♣76. So you're telling me that 1=4=4=4 facing 5=5=1=2 the bidding should go 1♦-1♠, 2♣-2♠. Neither player is allowed to show hearts with their 5-4 fit and this dilemma doesn't belong in the expert forum.

I think bidding is almost always based on incomplete information. One never knows the exact odds. It is always X% + e(rror).

What does "under-thinking" refer to? Didn't like East double of 3♣. South could have redoubled. Then 3NT by North would have two club stoppers if East leads clubs.