jogs

The game of bridge is complex. If it were easy the game would be solved and uninteresting. Cohen was too absolute in stating the relationship of total tricks equal to total trumps. Lawrence is also wrong in his claim that there is no relationship between tricks and trumps. It is somewhere in between. Back to the board where North should probably double. [hv=pc=w&e=e=sk65ha2dt5cajt853&w=sa9h63dj97cq97642]399|200[/hv] Exchange the location of the ♠6 and ♥6. Now 5♣ is unbeatable. [hv=pc=w&e=e=sk5ha62dt5cajt853&w=sa96h3dj97cq97642]399|200[/hv]

Couldn't find the delete key for deleting a post. Decided to just change the post. LoTT: we actually do not know the total trumps as often as we would like. Still in many auctions where opponents have preempted, it is the only available tool for estimating our tricks.

LoTT is not an absolute. It is just a rough guideline. 30/40/30. 30% of the time there are more tricks than trumps. 40% of the time tricks equal trumps. 30% of the time there are less tricks than trumps. Only that 40% is actually less than 40%. Whenever there are more than 18 total trumps, expect tricks to be less than trumps. Whenever patterns are flat, expect tricks to be less than trumps. Skewed patterns produce more tricks than trumps. Skewed patterns are ones which contain many singletons and voids.

For flight A players most points are lost on defense. Defense requires the partners to play as a team. Often the partners are defending at cross purposes. In your example the East player defended without thinking. He did not attempt to count his side's tricks or declarer's tricks. Your 5♥ bid would have been a loser against competent defenders. The correct contested bid depends on the skill of our opponents. Bidding is a larger part of the game on contested boards than uncontested boards. Bidding 35-40% of the game on contested boards. At most 20% on uncontested boards.

I think most players leak more points on defense than any other area of the game. Even with a post mortem most players do not find errors in their defense. Today with online play, it is possible to study how boards were defended at other tables. Players breaking contracts often produce a line which never occurred to you.

You should be reviewing your system notes before every session.

Second blaming teammates! lol. 6♦= is still a 5 imp lost.

You must have seen the actual board. Why would LHO lead a doubleton diamond? Doesn't the auction scream for a lead of an unbid suit? Therefore declarer should play LHO for a singleton diamond. ♦J, ♦Q, ♦A LHO would ruff air when the second diamond is played.

I'm confused. Relative to the declarer, the michaels bidder is LHO and opening leader? LHO lead a red suit? Would this not suggest LHO may be 5530?

No way I would have passed the first turn to bid. Favorable, bid 1♠ like a man. Open 2♠ if you have no stomach for 1♠. Now that you passed as opener, pass again. You had your chance, now live with it.

I'm used to seeing it in the other order, FJS(fit jump shift).

Opener: 5143 with 11 hcp Responder: 2434 with 12 hcp ........... Let's see if I got this right. * Both Siegmund and Rainer agree that in spades the DD expected tricks is approximately 8.5. * Rainer says the difference between the DD results and actual play in spades is small. Can we assume that the 6-2 fit yields more expected tricks than the 4-4 fit? ................. Our side has exactly 20 HCP. We have a 5-3 fit in our longest suit fit. Another 8 card fit is allowed as long as it is 5-3 or 4-4. What is our expected tricks? Without benefit of any study, my guess was 8 tricks. Is this close(+/- 0.10)? Is it possible the 5-3 fit yields more expected tricks than the 4-4 fit?

Didn't you forget an opening pass by South? The way I play it, nmf mostly applies after 1NT forcing. It also semi-implies 5332 pattern. With 5-4 in the majors bid 1m-1S, 1NT-2H.

I don't know and I don't care. Your pattern is probably more important than whether pard has 4 diamonds. 6322 in flat and unlucky. 6331 is better. 6430 is even better.

What's the double by North? Is it responsive? Guaranteeing 4-4 in the majors. If so, South shouldn't pass the buck back to North. Just guess and attempt to place the final contract. North is a passed hand.

The fifth club is only worth an extra trick about once every seven boards? The +0.11 looks like variance. The std dev is more like +0.33. Is it possible to create a file of the first group of sims? Then write a program that exchanges cards between South and West. Run the same boards with the minor change.

North should have bid XX. It would show a spade stopper and extras. Now you can bid 3NT. Only your partner didn't get over 24 hours to ponder on his call.

I'm really surprised that DD yielded about 8.5 tricks for these patterns and point ranges. I was expecting under 8 for any DD test. Maybe we should narrow the comparisons. There are 3 patterns for opener and 3 patterns for responder. That is 9 pattern pairs. There are two point ranges for each players. A possible 3 point range for total points. Maybe we should test 5143 11 HCP for opener against 2434 with 12 HCP. 5143 // 2434 Then exchange responder's low diamond and for a low club. 5143 // 2425 How much is the fifth card in the club suit worth? TIA, jogs

12 X 3600 seconds/hour = 43,200 Round it up to 50,000. That is still 20 hours for 1,000,000 iterations. Sometimes DD gives a different number of tricks depending on which partner declares. Some boards have two 4-4 fits. Some boards have a 4-4 and a 5-3 fit. On rare occasions on the slam level the 4-4 fit makes one more trick than the 5-4 fit.

What if declarer held KQ, Qxx, AKJxx, Axx. Now we can win 3 club tricks.

Looks like a hand from a bridge book on defense. Win the ♠A and return the ♥K while the spade suit is still blocked.

I thought DD analysis was slow and painful. How many iterations can the computer perform in a minute?

But you have 5422 as the better hand. What's the variance or std dev. of your estimates?

Why is 9xxx _____ AQ52 clearly only one loser in hearts?

If that isn't a clear penalty double, what is?