jogs

The estimate of our tricks for the general case. E(tricks) = trumps + (HCP-20)/3 + e But I suspect it is really E(tricks) = 8(=4+4) + (HCP-20)/3 + e where the expected value of e is zero. E(tricks) = 8(=5+3) + (HCP-20)/3 + e where the expected value of e > zero. Not clear how much greater than zero. Definitely less than 1/3 of a trick. Only it is difficult to find an unbiased sample to test this assumption. Your partners are probably over adjusting. They should just bid game with a 5-3 major fit and at least 25 points. Let the opponents play game with 24 or less.

Change the hands to this. [hv=pc=n&s=skqt532hk864d9caj&n=saj86h3daqj872ckq]266|200[/hv] Why does North bid RKC? How does he know there is no duplication in hearts? On the OP's bidding, I don't see how North can count 13 tricks during the auction. The hands could be [hv=pc=n&s=sqt5432ha864d9caj&n=saj86hdaqj872ckt3]266|200[/hv]

[hv=pc=n&s=skqt532hk864d9caj&n=saj86hdaqj872ckt3]266|200[/hv] How would you bid this pair of hands? Do we want to be in seven?

Why is the bridge community still clinging to point count as the main method of hand evaluation? It is an oversimplication. Point count isn't even a primary vector for estimating tricks. Treat hand strength as a multidimensional jigsaw puzzle. Each partnership holds two multidimensional puzzle pieces. When the two partnership pieces fit well more tricks are generated. When they fit poorly fewer tricks are available. The shapes of the pieces are not rigidly fixed. They are pliable and can often be molded into additional tricks. During the auction each partner should attempt to estimate the tricks for the partnership. The estimated tricks vary depending on the strain. The estimate is the sum of two multidemensional vectors. The first vector is power or strength. Point count is its primary subvector. The other vector is pattern. Pattern is the joint suit pattern of the partnership. Queens in the trump suit are nearly almost always worth a trick. Queens in the primary side suit are usually worth a trick. Queens in the secondary side suits are rarely worth a trick. Queens definitely do not have a fixed value.

Hands fit perfectly. [hv=pc=n&s=sa86432ha92dq74c5&n=st7h7dakj965ckj43]133|200[/hv] Is there a game with these hands?

Forgot that I had the distribution for points for a partnership. The probability of the partnership having 45 points less than expected was much less than I thought. 20 +/- 4.77 per board. +/- 24.329 for 26 boards. 1.85 std dev for 45 points less than expected. 1.85 std dev is ~ 3% The probability of both partners holding 'bad' cards was less than I expected.

+/- is standard deviation. Just one std dev. You should be within that range about 68% of the time. 95% is two std dev. 6.6% was for 45 points lower than expected for 52 boards. I probably should have made the calculation for partnership on 26 boards. Should be close to the same number.

You must have spent your life as a lucky card holder. I average fewer than 9 points per hand all the time. Average points per hand is 10 +/- 4.13 Ave points per 26 boards is 260 +/- 21.041 That means in a 26 board session you should hold 239 or fewer points about 16% of the time. Your pard and you held 45 points fewer than expected. That should occur about 6.6% of the time. Not that unusual.

1) T98xxx, Axx, Axx, x 2) Q98xxx, QJx, QJx, x I rather bid 2♠ with hand 1 and pass with hand 2.

Point count was designed to measure the effects of honors. It doesn't do well estimating the value of length or shortness. What's the fifth card in a suit worth? 65432. Probably nothing. AKQJT. Five full tricks. AKQJ2. Probably still five tricks.

Can't South be 4432 for his 1♦ opening? Why is North bidding 2♦?

The main reason for opening 1NT with a small doubleton is to avoid rebid problems. Qxx, AKxx, AQJx, xx 1♦ - 1♠ ? What do you bid now?

Agree. Your hand is no better than ♠ KQJxx ♥ xx ♦ AKJx ♣ xx. The Qx of clubs is of unknown value. Help suit game tries are overrated. Sometimes opponents lead your second suit if you just jump to game.

East already overbid his pattern with 3♦. West has an easy 5♦ call. The 4♣ helps East with the opening lead, in case E-W ends up defending 5♠.

No, didn't know the yellow boxes could be clicked. Still don't know if opponents' patterns are flat, meaning no singletons or voids, or skewed.

Looked at the bidding. Concluded that it is totally unclear.

What does E-W have? What's 1♣? Natural or forcing club? What's X of 3♦? What's 4♠?

Lead trumps. Limit those diamond ruffs.

I like fit jump shifts. With a double fit and shortage, slams are often available with two minimum opening hands. ♠ Axxx ♥ x ♦ xxx ♣ AKxxx ♠ KQxxx ♥ Axx ♦ x ♣ Qxxx

There is a misconception that one can safely bid up the level of their combined trumps. LoTT protects them. The math doesn't support this. With a 5-4 fit and 20 HCP you need singletons(or voids) to be a favorite to make nine tricks. My statement is more for avoiding negative part scores than finding slams.

I like [hv=pc=n&w=sj98642haq9dak3cq&e=s5h72dq8642cakt54&d=s&v=n&b=15&a=1c1sp1np2cp2dp2h]266|200[/hv] Must show support for diamonds, hearts, and is forward going.

PASS. 2♠ undoubled probably wont costs as much as a run out. If they double 2♠, then bid 3♦. If pard saves you from 3♦X, you need a new pard.

Subdividing your hand into 4 groups only assist opponents for their defense. Either bid game or not. If you're really thinking of the best game theory response, consider stop playing Bergen raises. 4432 patterns are not worth pushing to the 3 level.

Pass. Pard can bid 4NT himself. Don't bid his hand for him.

4♠. Will not bid again unless forced.