jogs

Play it out. One of those expected trump tricks from declarer's hand may disappear, overruffed by the ♥K.

Double. Shows hearts, clubs, and spade tolerance. The real problem hand is ♠ 3 ♥ AJ852 ♦ A3 ♣ AJ1054 No spade tolerance. Hearts too weak for 3♥. Not willing to go to 4 level with clubs. Would pass.

What about small spade on trick two? Maybe East will duck ♠A. West can't hurt you if he wins. Even if the diamond finesse is on, you need 6 heart tricks to make 4♥.

Partner has the ♦Q, else we aren't beating this hand. Play LHO for ♦K and ♣QJ. Ruff the ♥Q with the ♠5. Case 1. LHO has ♠ 10762 ♥ xxx 6 minor cards. trk 4: ruff the heart. cash two high spades and the ♣A. Down 1. Case 2. LHO has ♠ 10762 ♥ xx 7 minor cards. trk 4: ♠5, LHO overruffs. trk 5: small diamond to ♦A. trk 6: small heart, pitch the ♣6. LHO ruffs. Declarer has no easy entry back to dummy. If LHO plays a club, win it. Cash the high spades and give partner his high diamond. If LHO plays a diamond, partner wins. He should know you need the ♣A to beat this hand.

The slams are probably close. But if things go wrong, 6♣ should go down fewer tricks than 6♠. 7-1 play better than 5-3. The club suit may be worth only two tricks in spades.

West should be leading the ♦4 at trick 1. If West had held Qx of diamonds, he should lead the small diamond against slam.

Did East have the ♦AQ? Did West have a diamond?

There are many more joint partnership hand patterns than bidding sequences available to describe them. Not convinced we need to assign fault for every poor result. It does seem like too few articles are written on negative features. Jxx(or worst) in a side suit is not conducive to manufacturing tricks. There is no easy way to identify critical jacks and tens. This board contains two suits which have negative features. Jxx in spades is a negative known to West. AKxx opposite x in diamonds is duplication of values. This duplication is not known to either partner during the auction. If the ♦K were replaced by the ♠Q(♠QJx and ♦Axxx), 6♥ would be nearly unbeatable.

Since this hand has both an extra spade feature and a club control, it must be correct to show the 6th heart, right???

4♠ 'implies' a club control. Have never played this style. I understand shows a control and denies a control. What does 'imply' mean?

♠ AKQ10 ♥ Q109862 ♦ Q ♣ 72 How would you bid this hand? Couldn't see how West knew there was a club control.

Rethinking all calculations. ♦KQ both with East is 12*11/2*1 (=66). ♦KQ split between East and West is 12*8 (=96). ♦KQ both with West is 8*7/2*1 (=28) 66 + 96 + 28 = 190 ways Winning the 1st trick works whenever ♦KQ both with East. That's 66 out of 190 ways. Now using vacant spaces for ♣Q. ♦KQ both with East is 12*11/2*1 (=66). 8 spaces in West and 10 spaces remaining in East. 66 * 8/18 = 11 * 8/3 = 88/3 ♦KQ split between East and West is 12*8 (=96). 7 spaces remaining in West and 11 spaces remaining in East. 96 * 7/18 = 16 * 7/3 = 112/3 Multiply by 3 to rid ourselves of fractions. 190 ways becomes 570 ways. 88 + 112 = 200 There are 200 out of 570 ways for ducking to succeed. 66 * 3 = 198 There are 198 out of 570 ways for winning the 1st trick to succeed. 1st conclusion: given that spades are 5-1. Ducking a razor thin favorite (200vs198) over winning the 1st trick. Final conclusion: which includes chances of spades being 4-2. It must be correct to win the 1st trick. --------------- Of course none of us can make these precise calculations at the table. Flat 11 opposite 14. Will a part of the field be willing to play this board at 1NT? We better maximize our chances of making this hand.

I don't agree with your calculations. The location of the ♦K and ♦Q are not independent. One can't just multiply .6*.6 to determine its probability. It is from a hypergeometric distribution. The denominator is 20C2. 20*19 / 2*1 = 190. 190 ways. ♦KQ both being with East is 12*11/2*1 (=66). That works out to 34.7% The ♣Q on the left still fails when LHO has both the ♦K and ♦Q. ♦KQ both with LHO is 8*7/2*1 (=28). Therefore it is 40% of 190-28 (=64.8). Winning the first trick is a small favorite when spades are 5-1.

Let's say you duck the spade jack. I only see 8 tricks. 3 hearts, 3 diamonds and 2 clubs.

I'm in the 2♥ camp. My limit raises promises 4-card support.

Stop insisting on a short club while playing pickup. 4=4=3=2. Open 1♦.

There's needs to be a fourth option on the poll. How often does one partner know enough to take control of the auction? Asking bids and relays bids sound convincing when advocated by an expert writer. In reality the right conditions seldom occur. After partner opens 1♠ with 15 max, responder with 10-14 just isn't in position to dictate the direction of the auction. 1♠ by opener. With 2=3=4=4, responder doesn't know if there is a eight card fit. Without a eight card fit it may be difficult to make nine tricks with 26 HCPs. 7775 and 7766 partnership patterns are not conducive to generating tricks. These patterns suggest finding the best strain or any seven card fit. Stopping on the two level would probably be better for optimal expected imps than searching for an unlikely game. Therefore I hate your 2NT treatment, with those hands we should be searching for the best fit on the two level.

Why is responder in control of the auction? With a big hand he knows he wants to be in game. With the hand you posted doesn't he need room to describe his hand? 2NT uses too much space.

This board is anecdotal evidence that WJS in contested auctions is a poor strategy. If EW defends 3♥, the possible results are -140,+50 and +100.

Even if 2♠ is forcing, pass may work best. This was a marginal opener. Now this hand seems like it was not worth opening. Expect fewer than expected tricks for our HCP total.

The opening pass is probably best. 7222 is poor for preempting. Jx in two suits are major flaws. Don't like WJS in contested auctions. Prefer fit jumps. West should rebid 3♦. The likelihood the board belongs in spades is small. The diamond suit is self-sufficient. 30% of boards should be bid defensively. Avoid the big minus, rather than hope for the magical optimal result. Void in clubs suggests this to be a unlucky board.

I forgot to add that undisciplined preempts work well when non vul. Would be more careful when vulnerable.

The key is statistical significance. A small study where nearly every result is good suggests it is a good strategy. Be aware of purity. Your points need to be in your long suits. 6421. HCPs in the two short suits is unlucky.

I'm absolutely convinced against top level opponents undisciplined pre-empts is a winning strategy. Your partner doesn't know what you have. Therefore he can't tell opponents if they ask. Make it a guessing game. Confuses two of them and only one of you. I've had good results playing this style.

Could only find 3 pages(82-4 in the online version) on support doubles. They really don't explain why one shouldn't play support doubles with weak notrumps. When the unbid suit is hearts then maybe the double can show hearts. For the other three suits what can the double mean, if not support?