jogs

What's wrong with 1♦? Is South a handhog?

Only in forums am I required to make an opening without seeing my hand. Partner doubled three times. He thinks 3♠ will fail. Show me my hand. Maybe I'll do something intelligent.

Not at all. If opener had that hand, he misbid. 1♠ - 2♦ 2♥ - 2NT Opener should rebid 3♠ here to complete the description of his hand.

Think the 3♠ bidder needs ♠ AKQJxxx ♥ x ♦ x ♣ Kxxx Can't have much more. The 2♥ bidder must have something. Favorite to make 6NT opposite that. But I really think he doesn't have his bid and you can't make slam.

3♠? What the heck does a preempt over a preempt show?

Cohen and Bergen mislead the masses. With 4=3=2=4 facing 5=3=3=2 the expected number of tricks when your side holds 20 HCP is 8 2/3. With 4=3=2=4 facing 5=3=2=3 the expected number of tricks is 8 1/3. The expected number of tricks is not 9 as they claim. I prefer playing fit-showing jumps in both contested and uncontested auctions. ♠ Axxx ♥ x ♦ xxx ♣ AKxxx Opponents silent. 1♠ - 3♣ Although there is only 11 HCP, this hand has two aces, and one king in the long suits. It also has a singleton in a side suit. Opposite ♠ KQxxx ♥ Axx ♦ x ♣ Qxxx these hands are a heavy favorite to make 6♠ with their perfect fitting 11 opposite 11. ♠ Axxx ♥ x ♦ AKx ♣ J109xx Only worth a 2♣ call. The points need to be in the long suits. This hand would lose two clubs opposite the sample hand. Also 5431 often plays one full trick better than 5422. ♠ Axxx ♥ xx ♦ xx ♣ AKxxx is only worth a 2♣ call. 2012 USBC finals Nickell vs Diamond; board 78. [hv=pc=n&s=s3hkqj87dq32ck1093&w=sq10974ha3dk10984cq&n=skj8h10952 d7caj864&e=sa652h64daj65c752]399|300[/hv] W __ N ___ E ___ S ------------------p-----1♥ 2♥----4♥----4♠ --- p - p ----- X -- all pass Both Norths choose to conceal their clubs from the other players. If North had bid 4♣ (fit=showing), South would have known about the two suited fit and competed with 5♥. It is not clear to pass 5♠. 5♠X making 5 would still have won one imp for N-S. 18 trumps and 20 tricks. 11 tricks in spades. 9 tricks in hearts. 20 HCPs for each side. E-W has 3 aces to N-S's 1.

*Strike this post. Will try again. *Hands didn't appear correctly. W ____ N ____ E ____ S -------------------p------1♥ 2♥----4♥----4♠ --- p - p ------- X -- all pass Both Norths choose to conceal their clubs from the other players. If North had bid 4♣ (fit=showing), South would have known about the two suited fit and competed with 5♥. It is not clear to pass 5♠. 5♠X making 5 would still have won one imp for N-S. 18 trumps and 20 tricks. 11 tricks in spades. 9 tricks in hearts. 20 HCPs for each side. E-W has 3 aces to N-S's 1.

This is a probability game. While it may be possible to create a hand where slam has no chance, I'm bidding all slams where the chance of making is over 60% considering the info available. Also with your hand I would have rebid 4NT instead of 5♦.

South should try to picture North's pattern. After 2♥ it is 5=4=four other cards. After the 5♦ raise it is 5=4=2=two other cards. Now South knows he has no club loser. North opening should cover three of his remaining four losers. South should go to 6♦.

I don't understand your study. Are you saying with 5-3 hearts 4♥ makes 63% of the time? While with 5-4 hearts 4♥ makes only 25% of the time. I don't believe it. Please recheck your work.

Found this from expert play. --------♣ Q1093 ♣ A84________♣ J2 --------♣ K765 ♣3, ♣2, ♣5, ♣8. Only an expert defender would allow the ♣8 to win the club trick.

The correct bid isn't black and white. It is more like rock, paper, scissors. We choose rock because we think partner is more likely to have scissors than paper. The fact that partner has paper this time doesn't necessarily mean our choice has negative expected value. Considering the previous bidding is the frequency of paper or scissors higher? If only one of North's three prime cards were in our rounded suits(we are 6-6), 5♣ would not have been a fatal choice.

You're right EW makes only eight tricks in 4♠. No matter how many times the post is reviewed it is difficult to edit out all errors.

Exchange the kings and queens between North and East. [hv=pc=n&s=sthaj8765dcaq9765&w=sakj82h92dqj98ckj&n=s976hkq4da762ct32&e=sq543ht3dkt543c84]399|300[/hv] The patterns and total trumps are unchanged. The total tricks increase from 17(7+10) to 20(9+11). The experts love to debate bidding in bridge quizzes. But do they ever ponder the question, "where do tricks come from?" Or investigate how tricks are generated? I was once asked if I believe in the Law of Total Tricks. The answer is yes and no. Yes, I believe trumps is a primary variable for estimating tricks. No, total tricks is not equal to total trumps. There is a much weaker relationship. For each pair E(tricks) = trumps + (HCP-20)/3 + e E(tricks) is expected tricks. Trumps is the combined trumps of the partnership. HCP is the combined points of the partnership. e is the error of the estimates. This error can be as great as +/- 2. HCP and trumps are the primary variables for generating tricks. On some skewed boards the secondary variables play a huge part in generating these tricks. Causing the original estimates to be off by more than two tricks. In the example board it was possible to increase the tricks by three by just exchanging a few kings and queens. Would North bid differently from the original North hand? Or would North find 5♥ over 4♠? Does the double of 4♠ show a max 2♥ call or a strong preference to defend? If only one of North's three honor card were in the rounded suits, pulling by South would have probably been correct. jogs

This 1/3 of a trick underperformance is based solely on pattern. This hand has other negatives. In Larry Cohen's "To Bid or Not to Bid" there is a table on page 216. It includes some variables for positive and negative adjustments. KQ tight in opponents' suit is an additional negative adjustment. Qxxx, xx, Kxxxx, xx is a much better hand than xxxx, KQ, xxxxx, xx.

How did Marty Bergen convince the bridge community that 3♠ is the correct bid with the East hand? There is no statistical evidence to support his view. East 5 points are in the short suits. 5 points in hearts means N-S will probably lose only one heart trick even when they have 5-3 hearts. No singletons are unlucky for offense. For normalized boards meaning 20-20 in HCP for each pair a 5-4 fit with flat hands produces an expected 8 to 8 2/3 tricks not 9 tricks. This East hand is unlucky for our side and lucky for opponents. 2♠ or even pass is a better bid than 3♠.

1. 1♥ - (1♠) - 2♠ 2. 1♥ - (1♠) - X 1. I like cue promises 4-card support. 2. Double with 3-card support. No negative double for minors. Nobody cares about minors. Opener may still introduce a 4 card minor. Just don't go out of the way to bid 3 card minors.

If North held ♠ xx ♥ KQx ♦ Jxxx ♣ Kxxx, would it clearly be a 5♣ bid? Does his double clearly imply points in pointed suits? Or is it just a max 2♥ raise?

Do I understand this correctly? The diamonds are _____J852 KQx______10xx _____A96 The only way you can avoid losing two diamonds is if they lead it?

♠ 1098 ♥ Q87 ♦ AQJ5 ♣ A42 ♠ __ ♥ AKJ1053 ♦ K872 ♣ 765 2♠ p 4♠ 5♥ p 6♦ p 7♦ all pass Only 11 tricks in hearts and 13 tricks in diamonds. It would require lots of trust between the partnership to bid this grand.

I'm convinced source of tricks is more valuable info than just controls. 5NT is a take control bid. 6♦ is a give info bid. Change your hand. ♠ 1098 ♥ Q87 ♦ AQJ5 ♣ KQ2 This hand isn't worth a grand slam try. 3 1/2 controls. Still opposite the correct hand 7 may be cold.

1. ♠ _ ♥ AKJxxxxx ♦ Kxxx ♣ x 2. ♠ _ ♥ AKJxxxxx ♦ x ♣ Kxxx I want to be in 7♥ opposite hand 1 but not with hand 2. Mostly I'm bidding 6♥ because I don't have any partners who agree to play my style.

There should be zero chance we wish to declare in diamonds, since we didn't overcall. Therefore 6♦ is a Robson/Segal type fit non-jump. Got heart support and good diamonds. Interventor would now know Kx or Kxx of diamonds are powerful cards. 6♦ is a advance cue for grand. Does not deny the ♣A.

I bid 6♥. Would love 6♦ if it showed hearts agreed and source of tricks from diamonds.

Carding is overrated. To do the right thing, you must correctly read the situation and partner can't help you on this board.