jogs

Agree 4♠. What's the problem? Fast arrival.

Not convinced 5♥ is cold. Defense starts with 3 diamonds. Declarer must ruff in the correct hand.

4♥. Shortens the auction. When you invite, there is no guarantee partner will go the the right hands. 1. ♠ xxx ♥ Q ♦ Axxx ♣ AKxxx 2. ♠ QJx ♥ xx ♦ AQJx ♣ KJTx Would pard know which hand is worth a 4♥ call? Do agree that hands with no singletons or voids are unlucky.

You should wait a few days before posting the hands. Give us a chance to think before replying.

I like that. Basically the double says 4♥ makes. I doubled because we are being stolen blind.

Don't like it. Makes it too easy for LHO to duck the club king.

The goodish hearts penalty oriented 6 of the first 16 votes. What does that choice mean? Almost impossible to hold more than three hearts. No votes for the only bid that makes sense. First round control of hearts. Which may be a void.

You need a new partner.

I don't believe those numbers. Would someone else please run a sim and verify those results? Seems too high.

I have no idea what 3♣ means! XX is just the confuse the situation more. Without prior discussion, don't make those ambiguous bids.

Bid 4♥. If you make 12 tricks you will probably get a good score whether you bid slam or not. Just don't go for a bad score when making only 11 tricks.

In forcing pass situations, pass followed by a pull is a slam try. Strongly suggest first round control of opponent's suit, usually a void. That's why this hand should bid 5♠ on this turn.

5H is a bad bid. Can't be right.

That's because you don't appreciate that hand valuation is based on HCPs, trumps, and shortness of the side suits. Flat hands, those without singletons or voids must be devalued.

Have no idea what pass of 1♠ followed by 4NT means. It's likely to be lots of distribution. Won't know til hand is posted.

I would have bid 2♠ also. Hand has lots of losers. 5♠ now. Pass would be forcing, since opener bid game freely. Your hand is a disappointment. Not only do you bring no tricks on defense, your long spades means your side may have no spade tricks for defense. 5♠ may be a sacrifice, don't know. You don't want to defend a 5 level contract. Don't allow opponents to find their suit on the 5 level. Let them guess on the 6 level.

Not my style. In contested auctions, plus scores are worth their weight in gold. Let the opponents bid the 50% slams.

1♣. Also plan to rebid only 1♠, if pard responds 1♦.

On this hand West has 9xx. Therefore the 9 is played on trick three. The question should be, "what do they lead from three small?" If West has Qxx, he always gets a trick. Maybe South should play the ten on two. Or is North leading the 5 from 98753? I usually lead the 9.

The queen is obvious. If West had J9xx of diamonds, West would have played the jack on the ten, not the nine.

ANOVA. Analysis of variance. Forgot to state that 'e' is the residue errors.

If South had doubled, would you have pulled to 5♥? The initial pass is standard. It's a forcing pass on partner. 22 trumps boards are unusual. Don't know if there are standard rules dealing with them. You could have raised 5♥ to 6♥. Certainly not absolutely clear. You do know there's only one loser outside of hearts and partner wasn't willing to double 5♣.

HCP is the first estimate of tricks. Use HCP and combined trumps for the second estimate of tricks. Expected(tricks) = trumps + (HCP-20)/3 + e This is the equation for the estimate of tricks for one side. Wirgrens/Lawrence work does NOT replace LOTT. Used with LOTT it improves the estimates. E(tricks) = C(ts) + (HCP-20)/3 + e Where the array C is a family of constants for each combined trumps and pattern fit combination.

Sometimes there's not way to judge the defense from the auction. Opponents may be 3=6=4=0 facing 5=4=0=4 All those minor tricks may vanish.

The LOTT gives an estimate of total tricks which is +/- two tricks. From How I Fought the Law of Total Tricks knowing the pattern of the side suits will narrow the range to +/- one trick. Flatness leads to fewer tricks. Voids leads to more tricks than the LOTT estimates.