Jlall

So I was wrong but it's close, that I find a lot more believable. Thanks.

There are 7 spades out, so 6-1. Sorry for not including that!

So say you have this suit: AT9xx opp Jxxx You lead low to the 9, and RHO wins an honor. Now RHO doesn't return his partners suit, so you know he has a stiff spade (this suit is clubs). Should you now play for the drop, based on RHO being far more likely to be 1-2 than 1-1, or should you play restricted choice? I figured the way to analyze this would be to look up the odds of 1-2 vs 1-1 and it looked like about at least 3.5:1 more likely (I just compared 6511 vs 5521, 7411 vs 6421 is even more), which obviously trumps the 2:1 of restricted choice by a lot. However, when Roger asked me what the right play was I told him hooking was clearly right imo. I then asked my dad and he insta hooked. I feel like almost all good players would hook (maybe I'm wrong). This means that probably I'm going about analyzing this problem wrong, since the a priori shape odds would indicate that it's almost twice as likely to be right to drop than hook. The other possibility is that I and my dad and probably others would just be very far off in our answer, and I'm analyzing this well. Obv this is a possibility, and people in general have a bad feel for math/stats/probability. I still feel like I'm doing something wrong in the analysis though, and my intuition is correct. So anyone good at math, what am I doing wrong here? Also, please ignore bidding clues/etc etc I'm considering this purely a math problem at this point (RHOs first chance to bid was at a very high level and he's weak so the bidding clues aren't relevant). Edit: I guess we can say rule out RHO having an 8+ card suit from the bidding if that helps at all.

Wow, that's horrible.

OMG I felt so dumb when F was not listed as an option ♥Lobowolf!

D is the 4th letter, W is the 23rd letter, so they are 19 away from each other. M is the 13th letter so + 19 = 32 so it wraps around to 32-26 which is the 6th letter, F

There is no reason to doubt that the old guys didn't have the talent, so sure, if given the chance to catch up. One month sound like ridiculously short time though. This is not just about learning to operate some new hightech convention or some such. The fundamentals have changed. 1 month to beat the 40th seed, not to beat the 1 seed. Seems reasonable to me, the 40 seed would probably be very outmatched in talent and cardplay.

2S

Pass is horrible, you cannot pass with this. I'd just bid 3D.

But you're right I didn't mention playing in the 4-2 fit after 1H-1S-2D-2H... or are you rebidding 1N and having the same problems as 1D then 1N? If I had my choice of opening 1D and rebidding 1N over 1S, or opening 1H and rebidding 2D I would definitely choose the former.

3S

Won't he also pass 1NT with a 4M-5♦ 15-count? Or do those hands all open 1NT? I was assuming 5422 would always open 1N (ya I know some people like to bid 1D with 4252 so maybe that's wrong). I guess (34)51 might pass though, (14)53 def bids 2C though.

I would just game try if he has 3 hearts that often.

4H ldo

Even if I could invite in NT via something like 2H and not 2N so I didn't wrongside it or whatever (which I often have in my methods), I would bid 1N. I have a 4333 11 count at MP. I'm not as in love with aces as everyone else when we are playing a random balanced 3N I guess. To me saying 1N doesn't do justice to this hand is like saying passing 1N with a 4333 8 count does not do justice to the hand. I don't really know what it means, I'm a maximum for 1N but to me it's pretty automatic at MP with any 4333 11. This is slightly different because partner could be something like a 4441 15 count and pass even so we'd miss a 26 HCP game. But keep in mind if partner bids 2C or 2D we can show a super hand via bidding 2H so most of the times when partner is unbalanced we are fine. Generally when partner passes he will have some kind of 11+-14 hand that he opened, and I'm happy playing 1N opposite that range of hands, I don't want to invite game. In this way, it is even better to bid 1N with 11 4333 than it is to pass 1N with a 4333 8, because 1N is 15-17, and many 11s at MP are opening bids imo so it would be like passing a 14-17 NT. Partner might have unbalanced 11s like 3451 or 4441 whatever that pass 1N where playing 2N is a disaster. Additionally, with a super 14 partner might have opened 1N himself. I'm pretty surprised that 1N is not a standard bid with a 4333 11 tbh at MP, but again I don't value the aces that much higher than usual assuming we are playing NT. IME it is a huge winner to bid 1N with this hand type at MP, but maybe I open more 11s than most people or upgrade more 14s than most (imo I upgrade less 14s than most experts though) or something. I actually didn't think at all about this hand being hard to show in most systems if I wanted to show a bal invite, but now that you mention it 2N with no spade stopper is also not ideal heh. But that wasn't what I was thinking when I bid 1N. I was just thinking that 2N will get us to MANY bad 2N contracts, and even when partner bids 3N I expect it to be more bad than good, so inviting made no sense to me with that train of thought. The vul was not listed here but if we are white that's even more reason to bid 1N imo (partner should open lighter), and if the opps are red that's also more reason to bid 1N (the opps like to prebalance/balance at MP, and then I can double them in anything and get 200). One side effect of bidding 1N on hands like this with great defense and not much offense at MP is that you get to double them a lot imo, similar to bidding 1S p 2S with 4333 and like AQ A with red opps.

IMO playing 3D as forcing makes no sense in this auction anyways. If you just bid 2S with your GF hands partner can describe his hand very well, and you can bid 2N/3C/3D all non forcing which partner is likely to pass unless very strong. If you play it the other way that 2S is all weak hands and bids are forcing it seems much worse since you eat up room and partner is strapped over 2S with minimums anyways so he never gets full room to describe his hand no matter what. Gnasher-- I was thinking of 3H right away, why do you prefer 3H then bidding over 3D then 4H? Just because the hearts are so good in this context? Again, I think 3D does a better job at getting us to a diamond slam and 3H does a better job of getting us to hearts. Our hand is really good for a diamond slam though so I don't mind 3D, even though obv 3H does not preclude a diamond slam necessarily.

1) Obv open. I'm all for passing marginal hands that don't have great rebids and can be described easily later (michaels or t/o X, the latter in this case). However this very nice 12 is not a marginal hand at all. You cannot fail to open clear openers because of a possible rebid problem that may or may not occur. 2) Obv open 1D. A 1H opener shows 5 and I only have 4. Starting with a lie about the length of your major suit is a terrible way to start the auction. Consider the possible rebid problem after 1D p 1S p which I still emphasize strongly, MAY NOT HAPPEN (the opps could overcall spades or something else, partner could bid hearts blah blah blah), and when it does happen MAY NOT lead to a bad board (you may guess right, or it may not matter what you do blah blah). Even when this DOES happen, you are not getting such a terrible board necessarily. On the other hand, imagine the possible problems of showing 5 hearts 100 % of the time when you have 4. You can get to the wrong game easily, or the wrong partial easily, partner can misjudge a competitive auction easily, when it does work badly it will probably be terrible etc. Yes it could work out that the 4-3 is right or that you get your lead in but it is still making a mountain out of a POSSIBLE mole hill to open 1H instead of 1D here. It is just not good at all. If you want to open 1H, start playing 4 card majors so that partner has a chance to not be misled completely from the first bid. 3) Now I bid 1N. To me this is automatic, especially at MP. Your only other option is 2C. This will often miss hearts, and often miss 1N, and often force you to play a partial in a minor. IMO this is really unacceptable. Lying about your club length could be problematic too, but obviously lying about your spade length could be also. 2D on 9xxxx is LOL.

I guess my 3D bid was forcing! If partner had 3451 or w/e he would bid 3S over 3D, so I'm gonna infer partner has no spade stopper and is likely 1453 or maybeeeee 2452 with no spade stopper. x KJxx AKQxx KQx is not such an amazing hand and it's a laydown slam. It is MP though so we might need to get to 4H in the 4-3, though we're taking the tap in the long hand we may be able to do a dummy reversal or just pitch 3 times. This is especially true if partner is xx KJxx AKQxx KJ or something. Torn between bidding 4C and 4H. Meh I think I'll do well for 5D+1 if 3N is down, so there's not that much reason to try for 6D. Guess I'll go 4H and try for the brass ring that way.

how am i drunk I bid 4C showing a distributional invite exactly what i have

My hand is strong enough that I feel comfortable operating with a 1S opener since I'm gonna drive to slam anyways, I want to make sure to get to the right suit and getting to hearts when it's right might be tricky if I open 2C.

Very weird, why aren't the opps bidding? I guess partner is 0346 or something? We don't need that much to make game, 4C seems about right. In b4 people tell me 4C is forcing......HATERZZZZZZZZZZzzz

What kind of work is that that you have Hamman to talk to ? :) I am jealous... I have a tough job, I test games all day and actually work like 1/8th of the time I'm there, and am a "consultant" so I can work whenever I want so I can go to as many regionals/vacations as I want or just take a day off if I feel like it, also if I live in NY I can work from there offsite. If I wanna talk bridge I sit right next to Bramley and have an office near Bob and also can talk to Chris Hamman/my dad/Jeremy if I want to do a bidding poll. When I'm not doing anything (aka most of the time) I split action with Chris on pokerstars, or play him in Liars Poker. Since I have no skills, education, or work ethic and frequently move back and forth and am generally at bridge tourneys more often than not, it's pretty funny that I even have a job. Bridge is great for networking since you get to meet people who are often CEOs etc and might just hire you because they think you're talented (Bob is the CEO). But my job is tough I wouldn't wish it on anyone :) Also, obv it was a mistake to open up the 4 card majors debate I guess but my points remain regarding everything else even if you disagree that 4 card majors are worse. To me it is an evolution of the game that the top pairs used to play 4 card majors, and now the top pairs play 5 card majors. I wasn't really counting the Norweigans as 4 card major pairs since they are basically 5cM as others have said, but whatever. He played them his entire life and now plays 5 card majors with Zia.

Your average then was lower than your average now because they sped up gib. But yeah yours was probably over 5k even then. We should do one of these for the robot duplicates or something since we both play those now :lol:

Just had the following convo at work fwiw: Me: How would you rate the best team of the 60s vs the best teams now? Hamman: It would be an absolute slaughter. Me: How would you rate the card play of the best team of the 60s vs the best team now? Hamman: Close to equal, and if you don't allow modern signalling then it's equal or the old guys are slightly better because they're more used to "playing in the dark" Me: Would you say the 40 seed of the vanderbilt would beat the best team of the 60s? Hamman: Yes, but it's not really like that because given a month to study the new stuff, the old team would win easily. Me: So you would say the only reason this difference is so large is because of bidding? Hamman: Yes, but it's completely natural for newer generations to be better than older ones because they can build upon the older one.

Yeah 3S-3N-4H shows hearts imo.