Jlall

Over 1C and 1D I would play X=majors or 18+, and bid normally. 1S I'd play X= spades, 1N= majors, 2N=minors Over 1N I'd play X=majors, others = nat (2N minors) Over 2C+ I'd play X=lead directing, 2N=majors, others=nat Over 1H I'm not sure, I guess I'd play X=majors, 1N=minors.

These "advantages" are all true if you play the same system against a natural 1C and a strong club, or against any 2D opener whether it is flannery/multi/weak majors/natural/strong/precision. In fact these "advantages" are true in any situation where different pairs have different meanings for a bid in an auction. Hopefully this helps you see where gnasher was coming from with his post, and why playing this way might not be great despite these FOUR amazing "advantages"

lol gnasher ownz

FWIW Joe told me "Yeah I was in a grand and obv I knew which card was which but I pretended to shuffle them like I was just guessing." Pretty sure I believe that as it is one of his standard mind tricks. He also said he only did it cuz it was against one of his best friends (I guess it was Brad!). Didn't know the hand but now it all makes sense lol.

Well that changes everything!

Someone has KJ of diamonds in their hand 50 % of the time right? And in that case we are cold unless it's RHO who has KJ, and LHO guards both black suit. That is a huge extra edge I think. If we cash the wrong black suit first, then I don't think the squeeze against ♦KJ + a four card black suit will work because of the entry position. But discarding diamonds wins for sure against east having both black suits. Since hearts were 4-2 with 4 by west, it follows that if east has 4 of some black suit (overwhelmingly likely), it will be 50-50 who will have 4 of the remaining black suit (given it doesn't split either). If the black squeeze alone gives us roughly a 50% chance, given none of the black suits run, it seems we should discard the diamond queen even if we had ♦32 on the other hand. Because that will give us 3 good chances: a black suit braking and a squeeze that alone is ~50% or perhaps better. Yes that is the conclusion my rambling posts above eventually came to...heh. The DT really is not that important to this position.

Basically, LHO is almost never 4-4 in the blacks, which is the main time when keeping the diamond hook alive helps us, becuase they also have 4 hearts, imo. RHO however is often 4-4 in the blacks in which case pitching the diamond helps us a lot (since when he is, the DK is offside always).

Honestly even if the diamond in dummy is the 3 I think it's close. Pitching the diamond gains when: 1) RHO is 4-4 in the blacks 2) Clubs are 3-3 Not to mention that it allows us to delay our spade guess, which is a big gain (I believe we can do better than just playing spades from the top). Specifically, if RHO shows up with 2-2 in the round suits, we are probably going to hook the spade and have a big edge there, losing to 3262 with no SJ only. If RHO has club length then we don't need to guess spades, though we've gone down now to RHO being 2254 without Jx of spades, and with the DK on. So assuming thats our line, pitching the D loses only to: 1) 2254 with no SJ on right, and with the DK 2) 3262 with no SJ on right, and with the DK Edit: I guess 1255 and 1264 should be added in also and even in the latter case we MIGHT choose to guess it at the end. On the other hand pitching our club, cashing the spades from the top, and then hooking the diamond is going to lose to RHO having 4 spades with the J and no DK which is many possible shapes (4234, 4243, 4252). It also loses to an unlikely 2263 with the DK off. So I really think the diamond spot is just gravy once RHO has the short hearts since they have black suit length so often.

Someone has KJ of diamonds in their hand 50 % of the time right? And in that case we are cold unless it's RHO who has KJ, and LHO guards both black suit. That is a huge extra edge I think.

I gave it to Bramley...he agrees with my line but he also didn't think about it very long. It is a really strongly intuitive line though. Does RHO know anything about our shape? Maybe him pitching diamonds immediately should be a clue, but it seems like he's often forced to do so, especially if he knows our shape. Edit: Bramley was also insta like oh hes compound squeezed...oh no the threats are all in our hand. Bramley = g0d?!

Too mathy for me but I'm sure I'd pitch my diamonds, cash the ace of diamonds, cash clubs, SK SA, play the heart pitching my club then a spade and if no one has been squeezed I hope I can guess spades. Guess I should cash the DA first before pulling the last trump in case of stiff K.

Would be very surprised if it wasnt RM lite since I know Fred knows it/has played it, and Geoff loves it. Were they not also partners in 2006, and did they not play Precision (RM Lite) then? I think so. Roland They also played in the juniors in 1991 and did not play the system AFAIK.

Tempted to pass but I'd probably bid 1N against precision. Too much chance we get stolen from at this vul if I pass, and they are less likely to lead diamonds against me after a precision D. 2C is probably better than pass also but I like 1N a lot more.

Would be very surprised if it wasnt RM lite since I know Fred knows it/has played it, and Geoff loves it. If anyone wants action I'll bet on USA at even money.

I think theres a big difference in the forum definition of beginner/int and the ACBLs. There is also a big difference in the ACBLs definition compared to the entire bridge population. I mean for instance someone with 5 MP is probably an advanced player compared to most of the world which just plays party/social bridge. But in the ACBL they're probably a beginner. Likewise someone with 1500 MP is an advanced player in the ACBL, but most would probably struggle with "intermediate" hands here. IMO very few players get to the point where they can knowingly do a squeeze. Even in the general ACBL population. You could say that makes them all intermediate, and you could likewise say that every hand Ben posted here was expert + or whatever, neither of those would be very useful for their purposes though. But since MP are something tangible, I'd say that thinking that 80 % of people with 750-1500 points can look at a hand at trick 1 and then knowingly execute a squeeze and endplay is reallly overestimating that group. It's important to remember that on the forums most of the people are at the very least expert at solving problems, and the general population definitely is not.

I'm with you strongly on the fear of being passed! I would not worry about overbidding with this hand though, you have the equivalent of a 2C opener in playing strength pretty easily.

Reese gives four predicted "reasonable" lines of play for hand 2, depending on declarer's level. I'd be interested in finding out if you think the "level 4" line (theoretically best) is still easier than the first hand. Here is the level 4 line for hand 2 (hidden): Umm yeah I knew that was the right line thx :) FWIW the problem with the first hand imo is:

Heh, I think hand 1 is much much harder than hand 2. Actually tbh I'm not really sure my solution is right for hand 1, maybe I'm missing something obvious.

Obv play them for 2911. I mean...they showed 1 keycard for hearts so they are marked with the CQ for the opener? Maybeeee they have specifically x QJxx AQJxxx xx but whatever. Also the bidding by LHO would be ridiculous with 2812 r/w. Also the DK lead with the AK of hearts is more clear with 9 hearts than with 8.

The heart threat is irrelevant, you can give his partner KT98 of hearts and him 432 it's still the same. If he pitches 2 hearts you then cash 2 hearts and he is squeezed out of his spade again.

On this hand even if you have no scheme to handle 2 aces, you can bid 4N-5H-7H. If partner had the DA+HA instead, you could bid 4N-5D-6H-7H (responder knowing his HA is enough to bid 7). If partner had both minor suit aces you would be in trouble bidding 4N-5D-6H though since you might also have AKQJ AKQJTxxx --- x without any agreements on how to bid 2 aces.

Wow, way too much faith in the 750-1500 strata! edit: and obligatory lol masterpoints and lol random statistics

FYP thx thats what i meant obv heh

Would he not also bid with 4M and 6D or something? Bidding by partner is not running, he doesn't know he's about to play doubled, it shows extra offense with that suit and diamonds. Bidding to run before doubled is suicide, it just increases your chance that you'll get doubled. Why? Assuming you're never going to play diamonds or NT, partner will be able to make an exactly equal decision opposite 333 and 444, they are basically the same unless you need to play in 2C opposite 333 and 1M opposite 444 which is not that likely.

My partner once doubled on a hand like this and I jumped to 4H and we got to 7 when I would have passed 4S heh. Nevertheless I would just bid 4S here I guess.