PhantomSac

We have a tough guess here, if partner doesn't have much wasted in clubs then slam will be cold. If there had been a way to get him to evaluate that it woulda been cool.

Spade hook is better than 50 % since it also makes on Kxx off with 4+ diamonds but still seems like SA is better based on your math. More MATH plz

MATH alert, no idea what the right answer is but SA feels right to me. Recently I was totally wrong on one of these though so look forward to the numbers.

It is really strange to me to think that is what is important. Nothing about our hand or this auction suggests that we are beating 3N and 6C is down the same amount of tricks. There is a lot to suggest that they might be able to run effectively or make 6C X after our double and not without it. I do agree that the main cases are not when we double and they make it when they were always cold though. I would suggest that the chances of [they run effectively] + [they make when they otherwise wouldn't have] >>>>>>>> [we are beating 3N and 6C one trick.] Edit: Also glad to see you back posting! Hope it does not come off like I am trying to start a fight immediately ;) This is one of the first times in a long time I can remember strongly disagreeing with CHERDANO about anything. Probably it does not matter much what we do but the classical school of bridge would definitely find it unfathomable to be doubling in this kinda spot. I like evolving from that but I think in this case they're right.

Ya doubling when you have both red kings seems silly.

Was gonna say at MP obv no one should safety play and lose an overtrick vs stiff k on their right. However stiff K is not that much more likely than void anyways, and the added value of the overtrick is much less than the cost of going down unless a large portion of the field is in slam. So it's probably almost always right to safety play at MP in this spot, interesting, never thought about that. Of course this analysis assumes they would never double with KJ9 of clubs which before this thread I woulda assumed lol. If your opp might double then adjust accordingly. Sry for random tangent.

Timo is exactly right, if when we double and it is cold we are turning a 10 % into a zero, that indirectly means that doubling is terrible.

You are the most laughable excuse of a poster that I have ever seen. In more than 10 years, you have not changed, you have become even more insufferable. You say that no bridge player would bid 4S. When it is pointed out that jdonn (and a plurality of voters) voted that he would bid 4S, you say well he's not bocchi, duboin, or meckwell. I doubt you will even realize what a joke that proves you to be. You see Ron, not only are you an intermediate bridge player who thinks he knows everything and it is all black or white, you always think you are right. I now understand you assume that bocchi/duboin/meckwell level players are the only people who can be classified as bridge players. You seem to be inferring* that a player of the caliber of Meckstroth would not bid 4S. I am willing to bet between $1000 and $5000 USD that Meckstroth would bid 4S. Let's escrow our bets and ask him. I will let you ask him and word it however you want, and we can have a clause that if I have asked him already I owe you $50,000 (will escrow that also). You do not have to let him know that it is a bet against me. Since you know everything about how top players bid, and obviously no player who is as good as meck would ever bid 4S (LOL @ players the level of jdonn, who in your own words are very good, and in my words are far better than you, but you can appeal to phantom authorities who have not even weighed in since you are so good you know they would all agree with you), this should be free money. A rational human being would realize that jdonn is by far one of the 2 best players to have voted, he voted for 4S, and he is far better than you so if you do not understand why 4S has merit you are probably the one missing something not him. However, you are not a rational human being, you are the deluded hog who always has meckwell/bocchi/duboin on your side, knowing exactly what they would do. If you know exactly what such great players would do, why do you suck so badly? If you do not know what they would do, then maybe defer to players who are far better than yourself. Or, at the very least, when you state your opinion, don't say that no bridge player would do something different than you, then when it is pointed out a far superior player than yourself did something different say "oh guess I was wrong as usual in my dogmatic black and white approach to bridge" instead of saying WELL HE'S NOT AS GOOD AS MECKWELL! PS. Ready for you to completely ignore the content of my post and blindly attack me and shift the goal posts while maintaining your 100 % correctness. Let's post the bet on www.escrow.com. *infer meaning the way you said it, as opposed to a totally different word "imply" which is what you actually meant.

What problem sequence are you sensing? I envision passing and then bidding 2H on most auctions given that we have spades.

Why are 3H and 4H better than 2H?

Yeah really looking forward to playing against him 2 times a year for the rest of his career /barf.

I have no strong opinion. I would probably bid 4C and pass a signoff, I don't think this hand is as good as it looks though I could miss a slam. We have problems in diamonds, trumps, heart ruff (not to mention control), and entries if they lead a club and tap us (we have to negotiate keeping control, setting up/running diamonds, and pulling trumps while being able to get back to our hand and get to partners hand to pull trumps etc). A lot of times we will need at least the pointed suits to split. I think partner will in general evaluate well knowing we have club shortness (and having a 4H bid avail). Of course partner with QJ9x Kx xxx xxxx will not cuebid and I will miss a very good slam. I'm not sure other routes will get him to appreciate that hand either though.

What is the whole "it is imps" argument about? It is much more dangerous to balance at matchpoints, going down 100 vs 90 is a disaster at MP but nothing at imps, going down 200 is a complete disaster at MP and a small loss like 3 at imps. When you are not going to get doubled, imps is all about winning a double partscore swing rather than losing it. If 2C goes down and 2M goes down, thats bad at imps on this kind of hand (as well as at MP). If 2M and 2C make, thats good at imps as well as at MP. If we push them to 3C going down that is a win at imps as well as MP. But again, if we go down 100 vs 90 at MP thats very bad and down 200 is also horrible while those are negligible at imps. The whole "BUT IT'S IMPS" thing makes sense if you think you might get doubled and go for a number. Who is going to double us? Apparently neither of them have 4 of either major. They do not even have invitational values. And they're playing IMPS so they're not going to randomly double 2M (which they might at MP if responder has a 10 or 11 count that chose not to invite, gotta get 200 at MP, another reason it is far more dangerous to bid at MP when vul). I feel like people think in imps you should just not compete on any partscore hand. To me that is silly, given what whereagles has said we have a fit and they have a fit (so lol at calling this a misfit hand). We probably have somewhere between 17 and 22 HCP. On some days they have a 9 card fit. Our fit will never break badly. We know all this from the auction. People say things like OMG THEY MIGHT LEAD A DOUBLETON DIAMOND VS 2M. Well, that's true, but in that case partner has a stiff club since opening leader is 3325. Do you really not want to compete when they have NINE clubs and we have 3 small? You guys have it backwards, it is far more dangerous to bid on these hands at matchpoints than imps. That is often the case on partscore hands where you're vul, but especially on this auction. With no club honors and a guaranteed fit hand for both sides, I think it is far more likely that both 2M and 2C make than that both are down. Sometimes when 2M is down they might misjudge and bid 3C. We are not getting doubled and going for a big number so those are the main considerations. I would probably even go as far as saying vs good opps I would double at imps and pass at MP, depending on how aggressive I expect partner to be on the auction p 1C p 1D.

1D 1S 2N and you have to guess what to do in an indy (eg might partner pass 3D?). Bidding grands is not gonna be easy in an individual.

3H because my hand is too good to pass and I don't want to double with a stiff club.

pass

You can bid 4C splinter or 4D 4S 6D or 2H followed by spades

To be honest I would be completely shocked if game was 96 % opposite a strong NT lol, 96 % is a lot. Thats better than being in 7N on AKQ AKQTxx xxx xx opp xxx xxxx AKQ AK. I think something else went wrong but good to know you had partner at 3 points more than they had!

Absolutely. Construct some 9 HCP hands with a club void and I think you will agree. His clubs are also not wasted, a likely line is to set up his hand via a ruffing club hook.

Meck was #1 for almost forever, then Stamatov passed him. Obv it's close but off by ~21 rankings

Partner had a fifth heart, that makes our hand much more valuable. Hard to say he had a highly unsuitable hand.

You're gonna laugh at me but 9 points + 3 for the void with 4 trumps and an 8 card fit. I think that's GOREN? (add infinite with a 9 card fit and 4 trumps for a void). That gets you to 12, your partner has 12-14, so in support points you probably have an invite. However since the downsides of inviting (can't show your shortness, may induce them to double when things are bad, more likely to induce a trump lead, etc) outweigh the gains (stopping in 3H opposite a minimum), just bid game. If you really want some way to quantify what to do here, I think using support points is fine (+1 for doubleton, +2 for singleton, +3 for void with 8 trumps. With 9 trumps +1 +3 +5. Add less if you have only 3 trumps, 3 trumps and a void def not worth +5 obviously, even opp a 6 card suit.) So with a singleton and 7 points and 4 trumps you have a minimum limit raise opp a 1M opener, etc, it's really not that far off from accurate.

Game is 96 % to make with this hand opposite a weak NT? I am gonna say something went wrong with your simulation

If you had the hands he was hoping for, you would have a slam force over 4S. It's a partnership game, 4S is already a really big bid with his hand to say the least lol, if you cannot drive to slam over that then you cannot make slam

Does this mean the 1N bidder has denied a 4 card major? If that is the case I would reopen with a double, it seems to me that we must have an 8 card major suit fit (assuming LHO is at least 4-4 in the minors and RHO has at most 3-3 in the majors, that means we have an 8 card major suit fit). If they play Walsh I would def pass.