PhantomSac

loled. You still probably need 6KC blackwood to reach 7 since you need to find out about both queens.

Sry to spam thread lol but hearts might also be 6-1 I guess, in which case playing a heart at trick 2 is def right. So maybe playing a heart at trick 2 is normal. Still if hearts are 5-2 I think playing a heart at trick 2 is really anti percentage and you should just take your medicine and cash those aces rather than play for this miracle layout, even knowing LHO has a Kx suit they still must rate to have a heart honor (assuming RHO will open all 11 counts with a spade void and 5 good hearts which might be wrong given OP lol). I don't really know how to evaluate the chances of 6-1 hearts, on one hand I would say RHO will never sit for a double with 6 hearts and a spade void, on the other hand I would not think they would sit for a double with 0544 since I would never expect my partner to XX 1H with 6 good spades so I don't know if I should be taking any inferences from the bidding.

I just looked up the imp scale and assuming our teammates make a game I think 1100 to 1400 is 2 imps difference and 800 to 1100 is 3 imps different (correct me if I'm wrong), so at only 3:2 its probably right to cash out unless you feel you get a good read on the hand after 3 tricks that LHO has Kx of clubs.

It's hardly normal, you will only get 2 tricks if LHO has Hx of hearts and a king. On top of that even if you do sever the hearts, if RHO plays back a diamond you have to guess to hook whereas if they play back a club you have to guess to rise. And even if you will guess everything you need LHO to have a doubleton king. Against that, probably RHO will throw 3 clubs discouraging pretty painlessly, and LHO will play back the spade ten suit pref for clubs so RHO will play a club (note: the spade ten is NOT AKT876 and suit pref for diamonds, the ten promises the jack and is suit pref for clubs, if you want a diamond with AKT876 you play the 8 back, but of course some people don't know this so it can get convoluted). It's def a pretty big play since it rarely works to play a heart, on the other hand 800 instead of 1100 is a bigger difference than 1100 instead of 1400.

The amazing thing to me about this hand is that declarer can actually get a 4th trick, and it is probably correct to do so?

It's actually pretty old. I think BBO blocked it from looking up results so it doesn't update anymore (I could be wrong). IIRC it was slowing the BBO servers down a lot by always searching for results or something. Doesn't seem cool to make fun of someone for their bboskill score but I guess myrg brought it on himself. I prefer PKs way of just implying it

I agree with you, so why are you balancing on this hand with horrible shape? Your partner is known to have 4-5 hearts and 2-3 spades. They may or may not have a fit and we will often not have a fit. It's not like we have a shapely monster we are 3244. We also have excellent defensive values and pretty bad offensive values. On top of that even with a 4-4 fit we are pretty likely to get a 4-1 break

Just my opinion obv but I think balancing is completely batshit crazy

Combining these two together, 2S art forcing showing 5 hearts, 2N F1 showing 4 hearts. So over 2N you don't need to worry about showing 3 hearts, you can play 3D min, 3suit shortness (including 3H), 3N max no shortness. I play this in some partnerships and quite like it (though in precision I play 3C as natural since 6-4 always rebids 2D, in standard I think you can play 3C shortness since 6-4 will typically bid 2C unless the diamonds are very good). Anyways, sorry for the system derail, definitely agree that AKJxxxx and an ace should rebid 3D. The hand has too much trick taking potential not for diamonds but for NOTRUMP.

In general I think 5341 should always raise to 3H but the north hand is quite terrible so maybe a pass is called for. Having the SK is a really bad holding.

Well you told me the results but... I would bid 4S. My objective on the hand is to buy the hand. If 4S does not buy it and partner does not double I would bid 5S. I agree in general that we don't wanna make the last guess but I don't really view bidding 4S and then 5S as a guess with this hand, I am comfortable bidding to the 5 level with 7 spades and a pretty reasonable hand. I feel like if I make any non 4S bid LHO will bid something and we will have to bid 5S anyways, so I would like to apply the max pressure on LHO before having to bid 5S. If I bid, for example 2N, LHO will get to bid, RHO will probably bid 5 and I will have to bid 5S anyways. If I bid 4S it might go all pass, if not I will not be worse off bidding 5 anywyas. If I splinter LHO might double or if they bid 5x partner might X since we are in a force which I will respect but I'd be happier bidding 4S first and seeing if he doubled. It is not foolproof to bid 5 over 5 on this hand but I do have 7 trumps and a stiff and an ace, whatever, how bad can it be? Missing a slam is possible with 4S but I feel like buying it as cheaply as possible is the most important thing with a hand like this. Psyching seems pretty silly, I want to rob them of bidding room rather than give it to them.

Ya I'm sure the opps will just pass throughout if you start with 2N

My bad misinterpreted PK's post I guess

Helene I don't think what you described has been expert standard in a long time (if ever). It is flawed for all the reasons you mentioned, information leakage on the 1N 2N bids and inefficient use of 1N 2C 2H 2S. Expert standard in US now (and apparently England) is 1N 2S range ask. You lose inviting in clubs but gain 1N 2N bids without information leakage (though they still might get a lead directing X in). The normal use of 1N 2C 2red 2S is 5 spades invitational that has interest in playing 4S but not 3N. For instance, AJxxx xx x Qxxxx would be a good example, you really are interested in 4S opposite a suitable (fitting) hand but don't want to play NT. If you don't have a way to bid this you have to do something ridiculous, transfer and pass, transfer and bid 2N(!), transfer and bid 3C GF(!) or transfer and bid 3S showing 6 spades(!!). So this solves a real problem. Even when I did not play 1N 2S range ask, I just played 1N 2C 2H 2N as ambiguous about spades, the only time there is a problem is if opener is 4-4 in the majors with a minimum and responder has the wrong hand. I preferred risking this to gain being able to bid 2C then 2S with 5 spades shapely invite. I also played pass or blast for quite a while, I think because I read on here that Fred and Brad played that way for a while, and I hated the information leak of bidding 2C first. IMO this style sucked, inviting is pretty important. I am fine with passing random 8s and do that even when I have a way to invite, but bidding game with a random 9 or passing with a good 8 sucks. Especially as you noted if you upgrade a lot which my partnerships have always done, but even if you don't upgrade that much I think bidding game with a random 9 is a loser. If partner is going to reject an invite 3N is not going to be good very often, and then you are going to sometimes go down an extra because you need to try to make it and it all compounds. In general I think we would all prefer to not be in horrible games, if our system forces them to play them in an uncontested auction it's time to change our system. So yeah I think bidding stayman with no major invite sucks, and I think pass or blast sucks, I guess that's why expert standard has become 2S range ask lol. Losing the invite in clubs is much less bad since it is way less common. This is what I have played for a long time, but even it is going to become outdated (or already has). Ever since MECKWELL switched to 2N puppet, a lot of the people I play with/talk to have done the same. Not that it's standard or anything, but it seems clearly superior and I am going to switch soon also. There are two main gains to making 2N puppet and 3C diamonds, the first is they don't get to make a lead directing X of puppet which is nice, and the second is you can now combine (31)(54) into 2N freeing up your 3H and 3S bids. Over 2N puppet, partner bids 3C with no 5cM. Then you bid 3D with (31)(54), or 3M with 4oM. Over 3D your partner can ask for your shortness (but a lot of the times he can just bid 3N, and now the opponents don't know dummys stiff, and RHO has not had a chance to X partners stiff, so the lead is much more difficult -- less information leakage). You can use the 3H and 3S bids to solve other holes, the main problem with the structure outlined is that (4441) is not showable, so I'm guessing using 3H as 4144 and 3S as 1444 makes sense. 44(14) can still not be shown but it is less of a problem, if you stayman you will often catch a fit, if you don't 3N is probably ok (but not always lol). You give up being able to invite in diamonds to play this, but again that seems like it should be the least prioritized as it is not frequent at all and you will guess right half the time when you hold it anyways. (Side note, you said that over 2N opener bids their better minor, IMO that is a mistake and you should just play 3D accepts an inv in diamonds and 3C rejects, the 5-5 minors hand is even less frequent than inv in diamonds I would guess, and most of the time if partner doesn't like diamonds you should play 3C, and if they like diamonds playing diamonds will be ok even though clubs might be a better fit, so you are not losing much to cater to the diamond hands. It also helps for slam hands if you have shown whether you like diamodns yet or not).

Timo I both agree and disagree with you at the same time. I mean I agree that Mikey obv took the view that the CK was off and played for the squeeze or this hand would not be posted. However I think hands where great players take a view and make an otherwise anti-percentage play are very interesting/cool. I mean don't you have a sneaking suspicion that the CK is off like 100 % of the time on the 9 of clubs shift in this spot? I am not saying that I would go big and eschew the finesse, it's so much easier to say that on a forum than to do it in real life, but it might well be the right play depending on a lot of factors. It takes a lot of balls to not hook the club though lol, esp playing on a pro team with Jeff Meckstroth at the other table in a world championship. Credit to Mikey for making the play he believed was right (if he did in fact go up with the ace and sqz LHO).

I don't think anyone did anything that bad. I blame south more than north but both splintering and signing off seem like reasonable actions to me.

Where did I say your line is wrong? You can come up with the right line without considering the bidding (it happens all the time!). I did not see anywhere in your analysis that you mention the bidding makes east very unlikely to have the HK. I did see spots where you failed to realize that the bidding makes east unlikely to have 11+ cards in the majors. For instance you say that if you cash the CA and the J or T drops, against a good defender it is probably right to not finesse the club, since they might play the T or J from JTx(x!). That is very good except if LHO has JTx of clubs, RHO has the KQ of spades and 11 major suit cards and passed a diamond. Perhaps they might but I find it unlikely. I think it is absolutely right to hook the club based on the bidding, even though that is the wrong play in the suit in a vacuum. You yourself in your last post said maybe gib joined a silent gib order for passing with 10 cards in the majors and the KQ of spades. If that is true, then based on that the heart hook is really 0 % so there's nothing to even discuss, hope the clubs work out. My point is not that anyone came up with the right or wrong line, my point is that it is a major leak to not even consider the bidding in ones analysis. For instance some people claim that because of empty spaces, the clubs breaking vs the heart hook are very close lines. A lot of math to back that up. That is all well and good except that there was an auction. FWIW I think the auction makes 4-1 clubs more likely but it also makes the heart hook way less likely. I mean some people have it as 60 %! lol. Before deciding that a problem is a math problem and attempting to do math I generally try to first take inferences from the bidding and play. In this case there are many inferences to be had from the bidding and that affects this math greatly, but I did not see anyone mention it so I thought I'd point that out. I am not saying any line is right or wrong I'm saying in the entire thread the biggest clue of the hand was not discussed, so regardless of what decision people make they are doing it with incomplete and incorrect though processes.

P > 1N > 2C > 1H imo

congrats guys

It's as if no one considered the bidding

LHO is marked with spade length since RHO did not make a support double and partner has only 2 spades. If you are down a lot you are more likely to get doubled in 4 and go for a number so it is risky either way. You bought really well (the T9 of spades, and the CA filling your king and meaning they won't get a club ruff) imo, and game is still not that great based on the auction (though with no bidding it is an excellent game obv).

If I thought about bidding 4 it would be to try to dissuade them from doubling 3 lol. JK but this auction has gone about as badly as possible, they bid spades on my left, partner bid hearts and NT and then gave a spade preference, meanwhile RHO has stuck in a delayed 3C bid no idea wtf htat is. Seems like we have no fit no values might be facing a club ruff and the spades are all behind us, I'm scared lol.

Compared to say, JT of spades and 2 small hearts this hand is much better for defense whereas JT of spades and 2 small hearts would be much better for offense. It's a massive difference imo. If we are going to bid 3 over 3 on what will often be a hand that has 2 8 card fits we need good trumps and pure values. Ofc with JT of spades and 2 small hearts I would have doubled 2H already heh.

2S natural and forcing...what else could we do?

Bidding seems awful to me. Everything about our hand screams defense, even the JT of hearts for a possible trump promotion or trick combined with any honor from partner. And then there's that whole law of total tricks thing... 16 is a more common number than 17. Our clubs are well placed behind the club bidder. Only reason to bid is to hope to get to game which seems really optimistic (and if you thought your hand was so good then X 2H), as a partscore decision it seems like both going down is way more likely than both making.