PhantomSac

That's interesting, if you assumed that my line worked half the time where one layout works and one does not, then how can my line make 6 times out of 24 while the spade finesse works 9 times out of 24? That is not possible obviously, are you lying again? For instance, if the spade finesse works 9 times and you have me guessing that half the time, you have me guessing that 4.5 times. That is not possible. Let's give you the benefit of the doubt and say you had me making 5 times that the SK is on. That means when the spade finesse was off (15 times), you had me making only 1 time, though you had me "guessing" the endplay line half the time. Really, it's only going to work 1 out of 15 times? Interesting. If you had me guessing the play half the time where one layout works and one does not, it could not be that the finesse works 9 times and I only make 6 times. I think you are making things up again and being intellectually dishonest. Why did you bother posting this play problem? No, they are not the same. There is a non zero % chance that RHO pitches a diamond in which case I will often have a risk free way to make it in the end game when the spade finesse is off, as my last post indicated. Do you not see that this means coming down to that endgame is clearly superior to taking the finesse immediately? Are you willing to admit that you were wrong?

That's interesting, so in your opinion experts defend perfectly and that is what we should base our lines on? Or is your opinion simply that we should change the expert forum to the theoretical forum? That's interesting, how can drawing trumps and taking a spade finesse ever be better than running all your clubs and coming down to this ending: AQ x xx -- x AK9 T Even if your plan is always to take the spade finesse, you can still do that. You get a free roll that RHO has pitched a diamond. If they have done so, you are cold unless the SK is off and LHO started with 3+ hearts. You have zero risk also. You cash the AK of hearts. If LHO shows out they have to pitch a spade. Now if RHO is down to 1 heart you can endplay them, if they are down to 2 hearts then spades are 1-1. This does not require anything other than to be able to count to 13. If LHO follows twice to the hearts, we know they are down to 2 diamonds and 1 major suit card. If there are 3 spades and 1 heart remaining, we can play a heart, if RHO has it they are endplayed, if LHO has it we were not going to make it if we pulled trumps and took a spade finesse anyways. So we just gained something over immediately finessing the spade, a line that you are confident is right, and risked nothing. If there are 2 spades and 2 hearts remaining, we can play a spade. If LHO follows then spades are 1-1. Again, this just requires counting to 13, there is no risk. If RHO does not pitch a diamond and you think you have no edge in reading any end position, you can just take your finesse and you have lost nothing. Why not try, would it be insulting to our COMMONWEALTH GAMES opps? You lose absolutely nothing, so it makes me wonder about your intellectual honesty when you say that this line makes 6 times out of 24 when an immediate spade finesse makes 9 times out of 24, or that you "maintain the correct line is to draw trumps and take a spade finesse" when that strategy is clearly dominated by coming down to this ending and seeing what has happened since you don't have to risk anything at all. All of this information has already been laid out to you but you stubbornly "maintain" your position, it's quite fascinating. Since you have already lied (by your own admission and words) and been proven to be wrong about bridge and judgement many times in this very thread, I wonder if you even went over these 24 hands, and if you did why you would not post them here and show your "logic" and assumptions so we can discuss them. It doesn't even matter though as even without the hands posted it is obvious that you have gone very wrong somewhere.

But wait, Timo, that's not fair! We also got lectured that RHO would never pitch their diamond, when in fact they did, so it was also national newcomers defenders, not experts!

It is one thing to say you are not posting again in a thread and post. It is another to say that you said you were not posting again "save to say that the end position above was actually reached at the table." Do you see the difference? You did not actually say the 2nd part, so you lied about what you said. Even that's not so bad (though it doesn't make much sense when your words are written for all to see), but you used that to say that I was making a fool of myself for responding to your post.

This was also an interesting post, can you explain it? My line always has the option of playing for the SK to be on in the endgame. So why did my line work on 3 less hands than taking the spade finesse? Do you realize why what you said makes absolutely no sense and hurts your credibility?

Nice to have you back posting in this thread. Earlier you said: Do you still maintain this?

The reason to not overcall 3C is because the south hand is too good. And I am really unconvinced with doubling with 7-5-1 if it goes 2H 3C 4H lol

2C is fine, obviously you're max but if it goes all pass it's not necessarily a disaster and it rarely goes all pass. If you made the jack of hearts and a pointed jack into a queen I would jumpshift. 3N is a wild overbid, and on top of that if you don't bid 1N with game forcing hands it should show a club fit (since the reason your hand that was not GF now became a GF must be that the club bid from partner upgraded your hand). However, since the question is "why did we miss slam?" an overbid at some point is probably not at fault! South should definitely move over it. If the NS pair do not play that 3N showed a club fit then obviously the bid would be 4D, probably even if 3N showed a club fit 4D is the bid as it describes the hand well. It is amusing because if north had bid 2N, south would have bid 3D and it would have been trivial to get to slam (eg 3H 3N 4D etc).

It's not rocket science guys, if one hand denies a control in a suit and the other hand makes any non signoff, they have a control in the suit their partner has denied one in! That is just bridge logic, don't continue to try for slam knowing you're off 2 losers in one suit.

If LHO has 2 spades and 4 hearts you can play for the triple squeeze also since it'd be a 4-3 favorite. Or in other cases where you can *gasp* read the position because LHO is not strong and might start squirming pretty hard with everything.

Haha, you are really too amazing to be real. You say this: You realize we can all read what you wrote, and we all know that's a lie? You actually said: You should not just outright lie when your words are written here lol. You said you weren't going to post in this thread any more, and then you posted again not long after. And then when I reply to your post you say I look foolish? LOL. Apparently in lamfordland, the guy who says he's not going to post anymore in a thread and acts like he's taking the high ground, and then posts again with a dig at someone a few hours later, then gets to say that the person who replies to that is the one who looks foolish. He also gets to lie and say he said he wasn't going to post again except to give the final result of the hand. Sorry but you are the one making a complete fool out of yourself here. And good job correcting my typo. That's a sick burn, you got me. I was laughing too hard at your post I guess, it was really awesome. You are the gift that keeps on giving.

I cannot stop laughing. It would be funny if lamford made up this end position as a trolling attempt, because it is one of the most beautiful posts of all time. It has everything. --Apparently declarer exited a HEART after LHO had shown out of hearts [given that west had shown out of hearts]???? Yes, that is indeed embarassing since the guy is known to have 2 heart cashers? --Apparently RHO actually did pitch their diamond (based on PhilKings comments here diamonds were 6-2?) --Apparently declarer pitched their diamond too early, NOT reaching the correct position that I was talking about, even when RHO had pitched a diamond lol? --Lamford not understanding that this position would be impossible with the line I was discussing? If we go back a trick when LHO pitched on the HK dummy would have AQ of spades and 2 diamonds. LHO would have Kx of spades and 2 diamonds. If LHO pitched a diamond we would pitch a spade and claim of course, so they would have to pitch their spade. Based on this lamford thinks that the opponents will never mispitch or err ever and in the EXPERT FORUM we are supposed to assume completely perfect play at all times. And all of this after the whole "I'm not going to rise to the bait, this is my last post in this thread" followed by his sick burn of quoting my apparently correct quote given that lamford STILL does not understand anything about this hand, despite it being posted multiple times, especially the discarding that LHO would have to do to confuse the issue ever (he is stuck on well OBV RHO will keep his diamond...though he seems not to have, that wasn't even the point lol). But yeah, sick burn that declarer did not keep his diamonds and then misguessed the endposition and apparently attempted to endplay a guy who was known to have 2 winners left. Hahaha, what a timeless post, for one so short especially. Either the greatest troll post or the most clueless post of all time. Beautiful.

Are you ***** dense? This end position is never possible unless declarer pitched a diamond too early, DO YOU SEE WHY? LOL AT SAYING THIS: AS IF IT CONDRADICTS ME WHEN IT IN FACT PROVES MY EXACT QUOTE LOLOLOLOL

I know I should know better than to feed the trolls at this point but I will attempt to make a constructive post since it is an interesting hand. Lamford: For starters, you won't just need RHO to keep his diamond, you will need LHO to come down to a stiff diamond whenever he holds 6 diamonds. When your endgame is: AQ x xx -- x AK9 T If there are THREE diamonds outstanding you will pretty much know that LHO has 2 and RHO has 1. Ah yes, it's the COMMONWEALTH GAMES so I'm sure LHO might come down to 3 diamonds and pitch hearts/spades early just to mess with us. Or not. If there are 2 diamonds outstanding, I would bet they are not 1-1. Yes, it's the highly prestigious COMMONWEALTH GAMES so I'm sure all players will easily unguard diamonds looking at 2 little in dummy, without even knowing if we are the one with the third diamond yet or not (no doubt their partner pitched count in every suit so the diamond count will be known to LHO, because in the COMMONWEALTH GAMES everyone pitches honest count despite being completely double dummy, so that LHO can just boldly unguard dummy's suit, the only suit he has guarded). In real life if you think LHO might be down to 1 diamond or 3 diamonds in this position 100 % of the time because it is the COMMONWEALTH GAMES, well that's absolutely retarded, I'll say 99 % + they won't. On top of that, RHO might erroneously pitch a diamond on the run of 7 clubs some percentage of the time. Yes, that would be a poor play, but sometimes when getting squeezed in the majors you pitch your small diamond early on before knowing exactly what is happening. Maybe you should try thinking about what others post rather than dogmatically assuming that in the COMMONWEALTH GAMES everyone plays 100 % percent perfectly. Of course RHO if it comes down to it will stiff their spade but that does not matter unless their partner has also stiffed their diamond while looking at 2 diamonds in dummy, and that is an incredibly deep and hard play. To think you can never read the end position here shows more about your bridge ability and less about the strength of the COMMONWEALTH GAMES. I bet it would make you a better bridge player, but obviously your goal of your troll posts is to simply prove your superiority rather than to learn anything about bridge. I was going to write a much longer post about some of the other absurd things you have said but it doesn't really matter. If you think that LHO (not RHO) is so good that you cannot ever read the diamond count then gl to you.

lol

Yeah I would never sell out to any contract. I guess 7S I'd be forced to.

Just win and play a heart seems most accurate, clubs will be your entry to your hand. I expect to make an overtrick thanks to the SEVEN of spades being the lead.

Why did you bid 2S if you don't have any interest in playing a 4-4 spade fit in RHOs 5 card suit?

psycho!

Because declarer having solid diamonds are the layouts where winning the heart is necessary I suppose? Ducking seems like a normal reflexive play but it feels like maybe we're being duped somehow, probably just because it's posted here so it might be some kind of extreme hand. For instance fluffys initial idea without 9 top tricks, eg x KJxx AKQJx Axx is probably in the game, declarers legitimate play is quite low and it would be another sexy play to bang out the HK and hope for the duck. And of course that might even be the best legit line anyways, RHO having the AQ of hearts and 3 clubs. Seems like either play could work but in general I'm not playing for them to make super good/flashy plays. And if they do, it would take them a long time to figure it out, if a guy just whips out the HK I am ducking in tempo, if he tanks for a few minutes and plays the HK the KQJx kind of holdings become less likely lol. Same with gnashers proposed layout/play, even if the bidding was consistent I think few people would take gnashers line and of those they would have to think for a long time before coming up with it rather than just taking a heart finesse.

Sure why not? Even if you're going to take the normal line of the HA being on you are going to need to duck 2 clubs since you have to cross in spades twice to lead hearts up twice, so you don't want to lose more than 2 clubs 1 spade and 1 heart.

I'm ok with the splinter, I agree with zel and mike I just think that as mike said the SK and the 3 low hearts are bad enough that the hand is not that great. Also the lower the splinter the wider the range you can handle (for instance, 4D leaves you no room, so it should be tighter). I do think that over 4D north should just keycard, it is very likely partner has good trumps and the DK for his cooperation, I mean we are arguing the north hand is too strong to splinter, so when his partner cooperates he has to have something good. SA + 1 loser hearts + DK or 0 loser hearts + DK is already a decent slam. We might get too high opposite the SA and the CQ and the DKJ and decent but shaky hearts, but in that case south probably would have bid 2N over 2C instead of 2H unless he has 6 hearts (and if he has six hearts having 3 trump losers would be quite unlucky). At the end of the day the splinter does get partner to evaluate everything correctly, good trumps and the DK and the CQ are big cards, the SA is good but not great, and other stuff is not. I think it should have gotten the job done here.

I admit I ripped 4H but I only did it because my opponents had Scandi names so I thought they might be psycho. I don't think it's right in a vacuum.

2N rules are obv very important, my first rule is that if RHO passes, 2N is always natural after an opening bid or overcall. E.g. 1C 1S p 2N=natural, 1C 1S X 2N= 4 card limit+. 1S 2H p 2N=nat, 1S 2H 2S 2N=limit raise. This goes well with your post I think.

They don't have to psyche for you to have a natural 1x p 1y 2y bid. You have double and 2N for 2 suited bids, and if you really want you can have 2x also as a 2 suited hand, some people even play 1N as a 2 suited hand, I cannot imagine that 2y being a 2 suited hand improves your bidding much and it comes up as natural not infrequently regardless of whether they psyche or not.