PhantomSac

That's great. Do you also find it hard to criticize a line of play in bridge if it results in making a hand? This moron kicked two field goals from fourth and goal at the 1 in the beginning of the game. How can you not criticize that? There is no defense. Yes, McCarthy happens to coach the best quarterback in the league who has good receivers, so despite him they are able to put up a lot of points. On top of that how many points you score is going to be impacted by your defense, if the opponents score less then you are going to score less as you will run the ball at the end of games. For instance seattle held their opponents to the fewest points in the NFL by far. Why is it surprising to you that they also attempt the fewest passes? On top of that they have an elite running back and run game obviously.

Sry to spam thread but the live betting money line on SEA was +195 AFTER the field goal was made to go up 16-0. The NYT bot said before ATTEMPTING the field goal, the team who attempts it wins 92 % of the time. This is an inherent flaw in the bot that it doesn't take into the teams (and maybe doesn't take into account how much time is left in the game)? Given that even when GB made the FG (which the bot said is 77 % which does not take into account the massive wind), sea was +195, I am going to guess that not going for it was a horrible error.

Does the 4th down bot take into account how much time is left in the game btw? Because if it does not obviously that favors going for it versus kicking a FG in that spot.

Ignoring the wind and ignoring that you are by far the worse team (and 1 half where you got 4 turnovers and scored all of 16 points from them does not change that you are by far the worse team and on the road) is a big mistake. The chances of making a field goal go way down from the usual average when there are 50-60 MPH winds

He kicked a third field goal later in the first half that was 40 something in the wind on 4th and 1. I want him to lose so bad but apparently the seahawks cant even get a first down so the field goal strategy is elite. Best coach ever.

Mike Mccarthy is really one of the worst in game coaches by far. Runs the ball all the time when he has Aaron Rodgers (even when he's not injured). But his punting/field goals are just amazing. He is a 9 point underdog against Seattle. Due to 2 lucky turnovers, they get the ball to 4th and goal at the 1 twice. Both times he kicks FIELD GOALS. FIELD GOALS!!! I mean yeah it's absurd already since the EV of getting 1 yard at the 1 yard line is higher than 3 points. But on top of that, even if you miss they have to start at their 1 yard line which gives you safety equity, and typically good field position when you get it back. And on top of that? You have a completely shitty defense and a great offense and you are a 9 point underdog! It is mind blowing.

Would 3C be F or NF? I'm sure I'd bid 3N but maybe at MP 3C is a reasonable shot if it's NF.

What are their leads? If they lead fourth and lead low from 3 small for instance they have KT54(x) or K954(x) a lot, unless they have 43 or 42 doubleton or a stiff. If they lead mud or high from 3 small it's different, and if they lead 3rd and 5th its a lot different obv so knowing their leads would be a good start.

Actually if LHO has AJx of spades the DK will definitely be onside, but they might not be 3-2 (LHO might choose to not lead his stiff with 2 natural trump tricks). If RHO has stiff ace of spades the DK might be off and diamonds will surely be 3-2. Also if spades are coming in for 1 loser then the diamonds are surely 3-2. So I guess I win in dummy and play a spade to the king? I guess the last case to consider is RHO having AJx of spades, in which case there is a decent chance it will be Kx of diamonds if the DK is on. So yeah I dunno I'm confused. I'll stick with my original instinct.

I would win in hand and play the king of spades. Obviously it is some kind of math problem.

Passing this hand would be playing a different game than I am used to. I can't even comment on the relative merits of it as I have never done it.

Ah I missed that. I do like the trump lead I am not sure if I would have found it at the table.

Also, Philking if you were playing with me and we had no discussion would you just take 4C as a game try in diamonds all day over 3S? I think I would spring that one on you if I had the right hand

Am I the only one who thinks double is penalty? Is this one of those spots that's different in MP vs imps? I can definitely see myself doubling for penalty frequently at MP but admit I cannot see myself doing so very often at imps.

I would definitely shut up.

Sure if you want to show stoppers you can, you have 2N...3N and 3N available.

I do

I agree, there should be a standardized simple version. Here is what I play which I think is quite easy to remember. It is all based on the cuebid being stayman with shortness (without shortness just X). So over 2M, 3M is cuebid. Then 3C=inv+ diamonds 3D=inv+ other major, 3 of the other major=clubs. So you can show all suits directly inv+ or bid stayman (implicitly with shortness). Just remember the cuebid is the stayman and go from there. 2N is to get out in a suit. That is all you really need. You can as you please add the stopper showing nonsense like 2N then 3N with a stop, direct 3N without. You can utilize 2N then cuebid (I recommend minors). You can even utilize 2N then 3S if they overcalled hearts. But really all of that is not necessary and if you just want to play something very effective and simple you can just do the first part. What's important is to show your suits immediately with inv+, and to be able to stayman, and to be able to get out in a suit or invite in a suit or bid game forcing hands.

Sure and once again this is vulnerable to a raise and sometimes it risks partner passing when that would be bad for us. I mean you can try to fix normal leb all you want or you can just play transfer leb which allows you to show your suits and your inv+ hands immediately and still allows you to sign off. You lose one of those for clubs but so does normal leb. It is so much superior and comes up all the time.

Yeah and now you have no way to sign off in 3 of a red suit which also seems ridiculous. And your invite is heavily vulnerable to preemption, even something like 1N 2S 2N 3S is very bad for you. There is not really any way around these issues playing normal lebensohl, you have to give up some majorly important hand type. Or...you can just play some version of transfer lebensohl. I agree with you that everyone seems to play it differently though.

Also it seems like Jinksy is the main person who keeps posting topics and interesting stuff for people to debate. They definitely keep this forum going and IMO have a good attitude for learning and dealing with criticism.

Thanks zel but I think you listed me by reputation alone... I did not post much in 2014 and when I did it was not particularly good. You are way more worthy of a nomination than me. My vote is for PhilKing who always kills it.

Don't worry I hate you all

2s bid totally normal. Passing with 2 aces and qx of spades totally abnormal

I have always liked 1s with this hand type