wyman

Your approval means everything to me.

There's another issue here, and I've had to calm down before attempting to write this. HL keeps saying that he's happy to hear people debate him on an issue. Something like: "well, I've explained my reasoning, go ahead and debate me," which is fine. But this usually ends up with "you haven't proved me wrong, so I must be right." There are a lot of decisions in this game where one can write a few convincing paragraphs outlining exactly why one course of action is more likely to succeed than another. Play problems lend themselves nicely to this, for example. But bidding decisions are considerably harder to be provably right about. So many things make these decisions subjective -- style, opponents (including history), system, colors. Bidding problems rarely have a right or wrong answer. HL seems to have the strongest feelings in the thread about the (non-)overcall in the OP, but most people are on the fence. "It's not my style" or "I would overcall but barely" or "I wouldn't, but I wouldn't object if partner did" or "In my partnership this isn't an overcall, but playing with person X, it would be" I think sums up the feelings of most. This is an answer to OP's question. He came here not to look in an answer key for the right or wrong answer necessarily, but to hear what others would do with the hand. OP can decide, based on his experience and on reading the forums for some time, how much weigh to give to each of the responses, and he (and his partner) will develop their own style (which needn't match any of ours) accordingly. One point I want to make explicit: When Justin comes into a thread and says "I'd bid 1S," that's information. I don't need him to spell out the colors or the fact that I have 3 dead in RHO's suit. I can see that. I want to know how much weight to give that. My internal learner sees that Justin would overcall, and that bit helps me make decisions on future hands (after all, I'll likely never see this exact hand again). Since I give more weight to Justin's decisions than you do (which is a personal decision), I want to see what he says, even if he doesn't write 2 pages on the subject. Attacking his action will only serve to make him (and other players of his caliber) post less, and that's bad for the forums. Again, not every post needs to be as long as this one. Not every vote needs to have a "why" along with it to be meaningful.

A word of advice: there is a huge difference between <action> is ludicrous! and <action> seems nutso to me. The former is a judgment of an action. It is absolute. It implies something about the person that makes the action. The latter strongly states your opinion about the hand but is neither authoritative nor judgmental, and it suggests a willingness to hear another side. "seems nutso to me" is actually a much friendlier way to disagree than saying "is ludicrous" (though, especially when I'm outwardly disagreeing with seriously WC players, I'd tone it down even more).

IMO, XX > 2S, since there are almost always 4S behind us. If partner is 3622, he'll bid 2S over the XX, and we'll deal with the split, but if partner is 26(41) or 16(42) or even with a 5cm [these are not unlikely shapes at these colors, with apparently an anemic heart suit since righty is passing for penalties], he will be poorly placed to move over 2S (X), and you'll be left to guess again. I don't feel strongly about this, but I'd choose redouble.

Ah, I see what you mean...

We have different definitions of "factually," apparently.

Actually, I called you a jackass for calling JLall's action ludicrous with no argument at all (your claim that I ignored the other part of your post is silly, since that had to do with your call after (1H) P (P) X (P) ? not about the overcall) and for subsequently getting indignant about it. And I called you a clown for putting quotes around Justin's "credentials" and for claiming that you know you're right when several experts here disagree. I stand by both claims.

lol We'll just take your word for it. lol Wow, you are really a clown.

I would XX opposite a pick-up partner who I knew to be good.

4+3+2...

What analysis? You just called an overcall ludicrous and cited your heart holding and that you were in direct seat. So, if you intended that as analysis, I take it that you would never overcall on any hand with that heart holding. For example, AKxxx / 109x / AKxx / x. What you posted regarding the overcall isn't analysis. It's total nonsense. As Phil said in the Tips for Forum Newbies: You're free to disagree with him, but picking an action he takes and just calling it ludicrous, well, it makes you look like a jackass.

How many Bermuda Bowls have you finished 2nd in? Just checking...

Head asplode! So wait, after 1N (2H), I can't get out in 2S? This is mind-boggling.

In my judgment, this is another way that raising can win. I'd probably invite with 2N. After 1N - p - p, opps are sure to come in. Aggressive opponents may also come in after a drop in 3D.

3S is invitational with 5 spades after the 2N-->3C relay. Bidding 3N here shows a very good hand. Someone above suggests that doubler need not have spades, but if this is true, and if doubler has hearts for the natural 3N call, why double in the first place? What was doubler planning to do after 4S? Couldn't (s)he just bid 3N directly? Anyway, in my universe, there's no way pass is a LA on this sequence. But it's clear from the auction that advancer is in a different universe, so I wouldn't quibble with a director rolling the score back.

Agree that east gets the lion's share on the 2nd. Not sure what else west is supposed to do. I think east should move on the first one also, although the slam appears to be about 45%, so it shouldn't be too disappointing to miss it. edit: I guess it's 45+the chance that they don't lead a club, so maybe it's better than I give it credit for, but with so many clubs out there...

Pass is not a LA on this hand. Bidding 3N says "I can't take the chance that you want to drop in 3C; I have a GF and wanted to give you the chance to move in spades." Table result stands. Is the NOS really suggesting that this hand with 5 (!) spades is supposed to sit for 3N?

Yeah re: east, I know his hand is awesome, but in a potential misfit opposite a range that includes a handful of 14s [i'm making assumptions here], I'm not driving to slam at any form of scoring, but certainly not at MPs.

I referred to the community cards as "dummy" last night and realized my bridge:poker ratio has been enormous lately. edit: at the casino

Are you cold for 11 if RHO wins the first diamond and leads a club? You have entry problems. Seems like your line (w optimal defense) is always going to come down to playing for the HK onside. But maybe I'm missing something? Same problem if LHO wins the first diamond (not unlikely) and leads a club (not unlikely).

I'll lead a low diamond. No MP considerations here, since I don't have any idea where the field will be. I just want to beat it. My general sense is that a passive lead is probably right on this auction, and I want RHO to have to work (/blow up entries) to develop the spades.

Blah, now looking at the holdings from which LHO would lead the J [i'm counting J, Jx, J10x, J10xx, J10xxx, J10xxxx], it looks like 15 are winning and 22 are losing, so if all are equally likely (they are not), I should just draw the other trump, heart to the ace, draw trump, club club pitching a diamond, and lob toward the ♥Q for a 50/50 shot at 11 and a guaranteed 10. But I think things like Jx increase the likelihood that LHO leads from a more robust holding in a red suit. I'm not sure how to weight these holdings.

I know I'm going to regret this line once I commit to it, but I'm gonna play LHO for J10x(x) and play 3 rounds of clubs pitching a diamond and then run the H10, preserving the high spade as an entry to finesse again in hearts. I hope for 11 tricks this way. If LHO ruffs the 3rd round of clubs, I'll be unhappy, but I'll overruff and exit a diamond toward hand. I think lefty should win this and exit a trump, but there's an off chance that the DAK are onside, as well as a chance that he won't exit a trump. If all attempts at 11 fail, I have plenty of chances still for 10, which I expect will still net some portion of the MPs.

west has 2 honors in partner's suit, a 5-bagger of his own, and 16 real, but declines an invite? West all the way for me.

It appears mine does as well, as she posted in the BW thread. Pretty unlikely this passes imo.