OK, I ran a simulation on 2000 11-12 point 4333 hands opposite a 13-15 NT opener (2-4♠/♥, 2-5♣/♦) and came up with these results: Making: 60% Down: 40% Next, at my partner's request, I ran the same simulation, except constraining it to 2-4 in all suits. This only affected the result by 2%: Making: 58% Down: 42% I think this really proves that these hands shouldn't be downgrading... Is this true?