rogerclee

I don't know about the actual numbers, but we can do a quick calculation as follows. Assume that partner has 5 hearts, LHO has 2 spades, and RHO has 5 spades. This means that there are 3 spades, 7 hearts, 7 diamonds, and 10 clubs we don't know about (27 cards). This also means LHO has 11 cards, partner has 8 cards, and RHO has 8 cards we don't know about. We deal RHO 8 cards from the 27 card "deck". We can count the number of ways to deal him a certain number of a minor. An example calculation for "probability he has 5 clubs" is binomial(10,5) * binomial(17, 3) / binomial(27,8) This is the number of ways to choose 5 clubs, multiplied by the number of ways to choose his remaining 3 cards, divided by the total number of possible 8-card hands. CLUBS 5: .077 6: .0129 7: .0009 8: 0 TOTAL: .0908 DIAMONDS 5: .0108 6: .000599 7: 0 TOTAL: .01679 Given that one of these events occurred then, it is 84.4% that he had clubs rather than diamonds. The same calculation by assuming RHO has 6 spades (LHO has 2 spades, RHO has 5 hearts still) yields a 90.1% chance that he has clubs. What is the actual number? In general having more known cards (like knowing LHO has 3 spades or partner has 6 hearts), as well as increasing RHO's number of spades, will increase the probability that he has clubs. The real number is probably hovering around 87-88.

I play it's shortness, since it's very common for you to have spade shortness on this auction, and if you don't have shortness it's also very useful to show it by not doubling. Whether you have spade shortness is the most important piece of information you can give to your partner if LHO is about to raise to 4S. Also for slam purposes, whether you have spade shortness is really important from partner's perspective, so it makes sense to share this information immediately while the level is low. I'm not sure how standard the agreement is, but I know a lot of people who play it. Even if you don't want to play double is shortness, it is obvious to me at least that you need some way to show spade shortness, whether that is double, pass, or 3N.

I think it is good after (1Y) 2X (2Y) ? Starting with 2N where Y is a bigger suit than X. Also, transfers after transfers after a 1N opener.

Just two more things 1H-1S 2C-2N ?? One possible method in this auction is 3C = weak 5-5 3D = all heart hands, weak or strong 3H = strong 5-5 Also the auction 1H-1S 2D-2N ? is very different due to the extra step. Now it makes sense to play 3C as showing weak catchall or strong 0544, and 3D/3H are forcing.

Agree with awm, I don't know why people love to show bad 6 card suits on this auction for no reason. You already showed 5+ and partner has 2 or less, it's just unnecessary to jump to 3S and then play a retarded contract opposite small singleton.

I think you need to be able to work out what to do with strong 5-5, weak 5-5, strong 6-4, and weak 6-4 on this auction, and strong 0544 is also important to be able to show if you can do it (but this hand is rarer since 0544 would usually have started 2D if strong and 2C if weak). How you do that is up to you, but playing 3D as naturalish is not one of the ways to accomplish this.

I would x, pretty surprised Phil, who I thought was even more aggro than me about competing at nv MP, would pass.

This may have been useful information to include in the original post!

2H, a mild overbid to possibly give LHO a problem or shut out their minor.

LOL

Penalty by both sides. The opponents stepped into an auction where you usually have values and have not found a fit.

Is xx Kx AKxxxx xxx a 2D opener to you?

Easy pass

You should be missing a spade control.

The two main reasons to play 3C is GF are: 1) It is very likely when your partner opened 1M, and you have the other major, your LHO is about to bid a lot. If you play 3C is GF you have a forcing pass available. If you play 3C is LR+ then you can either choose to be in a less comfortable FP situation or not have a FP available. 2) You can just play 3H is constructive, and try to pass and come back in with a less than constructive hand.

3C, showing hearts is really important in a spot like this.

Very obvious to bid 3S to me

South's decision not to pass 2S is really illogical to me. Partner usually has a constructive hand with 6 spades, so he decided to 1) Show extra values when he had a nonfitting minimum 2) Raise the level with no expectation of a fit 3) Change it from 2M to 3m at matchpoints North's decision also seems very strange to me. With a great side trick source and 5 bad spades it is not surprising at all that NT will actually outplay spades. 2S will work a little better when partner is 2-1 in the blacks but this is a narrow target. 2N is better because 1) It shows values 2) 2S is a dumb spot every time partner has a stiff spade 3) If partner is 6-4 we will at least play in hearts, which is going to be a more sane spot than spades on average 4) If partner has 2+C we're a big favorite to be able to run clubs Also assuming south's bidding showed extras, north should have just bid 3N over 3D. In terms of blame this really adds up to being north's fault, though I think south's decision to bid 3D was more terrible in general.

So it's a transfer. BTW I think (agree with you?) that playing "systems on" is not a very intelligent method in this auction.

cleeeeee? Maybe it wasn't worth noting. Anyway yes, they are . (hidden) It's true that my first post was made without thinking much about the problem though.

The correct play in 7H is also worth noting.

2C I guess we will have a slightly worse auction if partner bids 2N, or if LHO bids 2H, but overall I would rather just get to my 9 card minor fit, and if partner will pass, I would rather have clubs than diamonds be my trump suit, all else being equal.

Also sometimes even very good humans are just careless. See: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blunder_%28ch...ladimir_Kramnik

It probably never occurred to you, but perhaps having a simple, widely played system available is good for the bridge world, even if it does not keep up with your standards of what a "good system" entails.

With such bad spades, such a great defensive heart holding, and KT9 in the unbid suit, 1N seems like a standout.