kayin801

[hv=d=w&v=b&s=saj10982h1074d3c764]133|100|Scoring: IMP (1♣)-1♦-(P)-1♠ (2♣)-2♦-(X)-2♠ (P)-P-(3NT)-AP[/hv] 1) What do you lead? 2) If partner Xs 3NT and all pass, what do you lead?

Except partner could be 4-3 in the majors for their t/o X and by making a responsive X we find our 4-4 fit. I have no idea what 3♣ would be here. Just more shape, like 5-5 and not enough to want to go to game? I can't think of any other hand I'd bid 3♣ on.

Done? I'm definitely bidding over 3 of something by the opps! Well yeah, but OP said the next bid was 5♦ after that :P

If you want to make a correction for the major additional chance afforded by the finesse, which is Qxxx of spades onside and diamonds cooperating, that should be roughly: (1/2*4/5*28%)*(36%+48%*(1/3)*(1/2)) = about 5%, so I guess that's significant, but still only puts it up to about 40%. That should also take care of part of the overestimation of diamonds being with spades in the drop calculation.

Ok thanks, my focus was more on "what is X" rather than "should I pull", but I guess I was a little surprised to hear people say never pull.

I tried to roughly calculate the chances (but probably failed). Damn you Jeff Rubens! Drop succeeds = (spade Q dropping, spades 3-2) + (spade Q not dropping, spades 3-2)*((diamonds 3-3)+(Diamonds 4-2)*(diamond J dropping)*(spade Q w/ 4 diamonds)) = 68%*40% + (68%*60%)*(36%+48%*(1/3)*(1/2)) = 27% + 17.5% = 44.5%ish Finesse succeeds = (spade Q onside)*(spades 3-2) = 50%*68% = 34% I excluded spades 4-1 and diamonds 5-1 since in most cases the hand will succeed or fail regardless of playing for the drop or finesse (I think) and the percentages end up relatively insignificant, and I ignored the fact that having length in a suit changes these calculations to some extent. Hence rough calculations. Maybe I can't do that. Oh well! If this is wrong maybe someone who doesn't suck at math can correct me.

2♠ and we're done.

[hv=d=n&v=n&s=sq10xxhq87xxxdkqxc]133|100|Scoring: IMP 1NT-(P)-2♣-(4♣) X-(P)-?[/hv] Oops, no smolen for you! 1NT was 15-17. 1) What does partner have for his/her X? 2) Do you pull to 4♥? 3) What would you change about your hand in order to make it so you'd pass instead of pull or vice versa?

X, sometimes partner is 5-4 in the majors (though he never is when I X here)

East4Evil-sohcahtoa are in (I am the former)

Yeah, that was my intent, since we overcall w/r on ANYTHING partner couldn't X 3♦ without knowing whether I actually had anything in my hand, so I thought my X was letting partner know I had an actual hand so he could indeed penalize them. In retrospect my hand still isn't that great for defense though so I should pass (had partner bid 2♥, I should have competed to 3♠)

[hv=d=w&v=e&n=sxxxxhxxxda10xxcax&w=shkxxdkqj98xxcq10x&e=sk109xhaq10xdxc98xx&s=saqjxxhjxxdxckjxx]399|300|Scoring: IMP (1♦)-P-(1♥)-1♠ (2♦)-2♠-(P)-P (3♦)-P-(P)-X AP, 9 tricks N/S -670[/hv] Part 2: what is X by south here, given north couldn't make a penalty X the first time around? Josh (partner) probably thinks I'm being sneaky asking others when we've already discussed this but I'm curious anyway :(

1♦-1♠ 2♦-2♥ (catchall force, planning to show a GF with ♦ support) 2NT-3♦ and now opener's hand is nice with controls in every suit of one sort or another 3♥ cue and now responder is pumped with his extras and little wastage in spades. I think I'd drive to 6♦ from here. Maybe: .... 3♠ 4♣-4♦ 4♥ (1430 for me, 4NT if you prefer) - 4NT 5♣-6♦ (Q, nothing else I haven't already shown) Basically, opener is happier after 3♦ and responder is happier after opener shows that he/she is happy.

I would bid 2NT on both if those are my only choices, but honestly I think the first one is too good.

1st sentence lie. 2nd sentence truth. Partner's hand could be useless in diamonds but our hand sure isn't useless in spades!

Looks like a really easy hand to hit slam on using big club... any clue how many of the tables who bid it/didn't get there were using a form of precision? How I would bid it: 1♣ (16+)-1♥ (GF w/ spades) 1NT (waiting)-2♥ (6+ spades) 2♠ (accepts spades)-3♣ (3 controls) 3♠ (asking)-4♦ (2 of the top 3 spade honors) 6♠ (maybe after searching for a grand by asking in clubs, idk) In 2/1 I agree with jdonn.

[hv=d=s&v=n&s=sxh9xdkqj10xxxxckj]133|100|Scoring: MP[/hv] You, a junior, deal and bid...?

I like 2♠ NV at MP so long as partner isn't expecting anything constructive. I don't like being stolen from by juniors so I don't mind X, though it's definitely one of the worst Xs I've ever seen. 2NT is meh, but I don't know if he has anything better to do. @aguahombre: Huh. I remember them saying they play DEPO, and then E later (jokingly) complaining that W was supposed to have 2. Now I'm confused. @gwnn: you are once again my hero

3♠ splinter and trust partner thereafter. Hopefully get a 4♠ bid in later if partner is interested. EDIT: Maybe I don't have a good reason for this without thinking more, but in an auction like this I've felt it's nicer to get a void across before a fantastic suit before a singleton, so I'm content keeping quiet about my diamonds for now.

4♦ = Prefer the suits in this order: (♠>)♦>♥>♣

[hv=d=w&v=n&n=skxh9xxxdaxxcaxxx&w=s109xxxxhd108xxxcjx&e=saqjxhdkqjxxck10xx&s=sxhakqj10xxxxdcqxx]399|300|Scoring: MP 2♠-X-2NT-4♥ P-P-4NT-5♥ P-P-6♦-6♥ P-P-6♠-X P-P-XX-AP Down 3, +1000 N/S[/hv] Clearly played at a high level. 2NT was a feature ask, 4NT was RKC, W's pass over 5♥ was DEPO, and E was devastated? when W had 0. I was kibbing W, a friend of mine, in a local club game against two club 'regulars'. Before bidding 4NT E tanked for about a minute, at which point W and myself had to stop ourselves from cracking up because we were so sure he was just figuring out the best way to preempt/continue his psyche. Quick Edit: I actually like the bidding through 2NT, but it gets silly beyond that.

I'm an idiot so I lead the ♥J

[hv=d=w&v=n&s=sxhakqj10xxxxdcqxx]133|100|Scoring: MP (2♠)-X-(2NT)-?[/hv] Opponents are juniors. 2NT is explained as a feature ask. 5♥ would (look like an) ask for a 2nd round spade control. Plan ahead if you would. Hidden:

Secondary vote then: do you like bidding 4♣ with Qx(x) here, or do you prefer it to be A or K? RE gnasher: 3NT would be serious for us (though, once again, opener is limited to 15, so serious in context), or in other words slam related but says nothing about shape. Opener hasn't shown any extras yet, so they'd just raise to 4♠ on trash, but maybe try a cue with an okay hand.

True, odds are if we have a triple fit they should be bidding hearts, and I don't know what style you play with regards to rebidding 2♣ here, but if you, for example (referring back to my example auction), would bid 2♣ on 3=4=4=2, then this auction is reasonable to play as natural, and if you're on the way to slam you might end up wanting to play in diamonds in the 4-4 fit instead. I could buy that if you've now promised a real suit with your 2/1 call that 3♦ should be artificial because now the odds of you having a diamond fit on top of a club and spade fit aren't so good. I only mention this because I know I'm more likely to leave in 6♦ later on in a slam auction if we confirm diamonds as a second fit earlier, not to mention knowing we have an actual double fit is just as good as being able to make a forward-going cue in diamonds for spades sometimes. (Just a comfort thing for me, maybe you're all set on that)