kayin801

[hv=d=n&v=n&s=s5hdakqj1098cakqj7]133|100|Scoring: IMP P-P-?[/hv] You play a big club system and have the tools you need to ask about spades... assuming they don't interfere. Are you gonna mastermind and try to induce a X from an opponent or open 1♣ and risk preemption? (yes I actually got this hand today)

[hv=d=w&v=n&n=sk4hakq87dj9ck972&s=saj653hj2daq87ca4]133|200|Scoring: IMP Contract: 6NT Lead: ♥5[/hv] How are you best combining your chances? As declarer you've shown 5 spades, 4-5 diamonds, and 3 aces in the bidding. I've put the full hand here (above hand was rotated): http://tinyurl.com/ylq8uk7 I thought declarer did a nice job bringing about pressure on the defense even if the contract could have been beaten, but I'm wondering how everyone could have done better. (ignore the bidding :))

When playing 4 way transfers I play transfer to the minor then 4 of the major = 5-6, but I have no bid if I'm 5-6 and slammish since that auction is just choice of games. On this hand I could just bid this equivalently in our system (1NT-2C (stayman-like)-2something-3C(GF w/ clubs)-(something)-4H) and partner would probably get the idea, though it was undiscussed at the time. That may make more sense for this hand though. For the system bashers, it didn't occur to me at the time to do this, it was just "show your major first". This is one of the types of hands I've ALWAYS had trouble with though, so I'm just curious and willing to take input, is the decision to bid the minor first based simply on the fact that there's more of them or is it the suit quality too? So say I held Ax, AKJ9x, -, Jxxxxx (okay that's a little extreme) do you still want to show clubs first, or is this more of a "hand feel" sort of thing? (BTW partner held something gross like KJxx, Q9xx, Kxx, Qx :) and that having been said 6 could make with a correct spade guess and a double finesse in hearts against K10x... not to justify this or anything)

[hv=d=s&v=e&s=s1042hk104daq72ck102]133|100|Scoring: BAM 1♦-(1♠)-P-(2♥)- P-(3♥)-AP[/hv] Your lead at BAM is...?

I thought this poll was gonna be unanimous for gwnn... (except whereagles, of course)

I probably could have started by showing GF w/ clubs, though I might have trouble convincing partner I have 5 hearts after that. I also probably forgot to mention the two options that passed through my mind: pass (play in 5♣) or 5♥. Agree in general w/ what you said though.

1) [hv=d=w&v=b&s=sa98ha8d932ca9852]133|100|Scoring: IMP P-P-1♥-?[/hv] This one maybe too straight forward, especially considering that recent discussion of P/X/2♥ 2) [hv=d=w&v=b&s=sa98ha8d932ca9852]133|100|Scoring: IMP P-P-1♥-?[/hv] You play strong club, 1♦ is 2+ suit, 1NT is good 10 to bad 14 in this seat, 2♣ is ostensibly 6+ suit 11-15, but in 3rd seat this can be relaxed to 5 cards with an appropriate hand (so all 3 bids are technically okay) 3) [hv=d=w&v=b&s=sa98ha8d932ca9852]133|100|Scoring: IMP P-P-1♥-?[/hv] Bidding explanation: 1NT was 10-12, 2♦ was inquiring about a 5 card major and invitational, or the start of a GF, LHO also made a lead directing X over this bid, 2NT showed no 5 card major and a min, 3♥ was a 5+ suit and GF, 4♥ showed 3 or 4 card support, presumably not with a good hand for what had been shown since cuebids were available 4♠ was RKC for hearts 5♣ was 0/3, presumably 0 since partner wouldn't have bid this way with AAK Also, is 4♠ an overbid?

100% agree here, but then again, partner knows we're limited so when we make this kind of bid they should be able to make a fairly informed decision.

Personally, I am a little surprised that the sigma is so low, for sets of only 24 boards. But a sim is a sim. I guess it's another example of human perception/expectation often not matching real probabilities. Does anyone else find it eerie that one standard deviation is almost exactly 1 HCP? (Granted this is only for 24 board tourneys) Or am I just being a geek? BTW, thanks for this sim Hotshot, it's exactly what I wanted to know.

1♠-P-3♣(mixed)-3♥ 3♠-4♥-4♠-X AP, +300 (if W bids 3♠ it would be tougher to overcall, I s'pose) b+c are 5♥X-1, -100 a-b: 9 a-c: 9 b-c: 0

Ultra flat, automatic sequences, same as awm a-b: 0 a-c: 0 b-c: 0

1♠-P-P-2♣ P-2♥-P-3♥ P-4♥-AP, +620 1♠-X-P-2NT P-3NT-AP, +630 (maybe only 600 on ideal defense, but I don't want to be sitting E on this deal, all sorts of terrible happens on the run of the clubs, and even if you pitch diamond J, it still sucks) 1♠-2♥-P-2♠ P-3♥-P-4♥ AP, +620 a-b: 0 a-c: 0 b-c: 0

1♠-P-1NT-P 3♠-ap -140 1♠-X-2♣-2♥ 2♠-3♥-AP, -100 1♠-2♥-P-3♥ 3♠-AP, -140 a-b: -1 a-c: 0 b-c: 1

I think I agree with all. Yeah, I also agree. I find I have the urge to balance those 1♠-2♠ auctions but at the same time, ew.

1♠-P-1NT-P 2♠-AP, +50 1♠-X-P-1NT AP, +120 1♠-2♥-P-2NT (overbid, but my p and I overcall on these kinds of suits) AP, +120 a-b: -2 imps a-c: -2 imps b-c: 0 imps

I'm on board here. Maybe slightly different route for C (i might try 3H instead of 3S with W), and definitely a X.

+1

1♠-P-1NT-P 2♠-P-3♠-P 4♠-ap, -420 1♠-X-2♣-P 2♠-P-3♠-P 4♠-ap, -420 1♠-2♥-3♣-p 3♠-p-4♠-ap, -420 a-b: 0 a-c: 0 b-c: 0

Agree. What han says Yup. Hopefully a lot of the hands will be this easy.

What? Where do you live? That's awful if it's true, I've never heard of such a thing happening. You know how on some (all?) of the automatic deal softwares they have printouts that not only have the hands and DD contracts but also the point distributions, suit distributions, etc. While I doubt you'd wanna specifically rotate some hands, why not throw out the entire set after seeing X pts in one direction in point count and deal a new one (subtly and don't tell anyone)? I think that kind of control isn't quite so bad... It's more work for directors, but it's not really tampering anymore. Not to mention this software will sometimes deal more hands than will be played, which are then included in the total statistics. Of course, going exactly 20 on average each way is ridiculous since anyone with a pencil and paper can predict the HCP count for the last hand ;P but maybe throw out 24+ in one direction or something (or there could be built in software control for this). Btw, where are the sim people who can tell us the chances of having one side average X HCP over 30 or so randomly dealt boards

I agree X but I thought a few more people would lean towards pass or (gulp) 1NT. Obviously at the table I went down the rabbit hole but that's what happens when you... put a spade with your clubs... (no rational defense for my actions except not playing a very competitive game) Btw I'm glad at least one person humored me. Now gwnn is my new hero on the forums.

[hv=d=w&v=e&s=sj94hq53dk96cakqj]133|100|Scoring: IMP P-P-1♠-?[/hv] ___ is a twisted bid, and ___ is suicidal. ___ feels out of place while ___ could work out. So I pick ___, WTP? (Additional explanation allowed if desired ;P)

I would bid if I were playing with close friends after everyone had a few beers. In all other situations pass.

Good point. Fixed the auction to what I should have had it as, though I suspect the answer is the same.

P-P-1♦-1♠ X-P-3♥-P P-3♠-4♥-P P-4♠-P-P X-P-?