vuroth

Not to mention that I think you can often do much better than down 1 even IF declarer has ♠Jxxx. But yeah, the other 99% of the time you'll do ok, too.

It's definitely an easier problem on this side of the atlantic. Then again, some family members play 4 card major/goren style, so my son is going to have problems at some point. Or maybe only I will.

Things I missed at the table: - Both opps passed with 10 diamonds between them. Decent chance they split 5/5. - LHO overcalled with a 4 card heart suit, without the ace. If I can play spades for 1 loser, I have 7 tricks - 2 clubs, 4 spades, and the spade ruff I just took in the short hand. If I can play spades for 0 losers (if they're 2-2), I have 8 right now. Given that RHO has 9 red cards, clubs splitting 3-3 is unlikely, but establishing clubs would obviously be great at matchpoints. If clubs are ever going to run, RHO needs to have a singleton honour, so I'll need to finesse LHO's honour after I play the K♠. However, if I do that, I won't have the entries I need to dummy's clubs. So I guess the best line from here is low to the K♠ - if an honour fals on your right, A♣, ♣ ruff, finesse ♠s. If no honour falls, A♣, ♣ ruff, A♠, ♣ ruff, ♥ ruff, and clubs now run. That's my guess anyways. I wish I'd seen more at the table, would have made chosing a line easier than guessing, which is what I wound up doing.

I have the same problem. That said, my face to face bridge is pretty much at 0%, and is not likely to change anytime soon, so I don't really have a way to deal with it.

Thanks. Wanted to make sure I wasn't crazy. Once upon a time, I think I would have focused on club finesse, club ruff. ATT it occurred to me that hearts might be a second chance (though in retrospect they're unlikely to get me to 12 tricks), and I figured it couldn't hurt to ruff a heart first. Mostly, I wanted to make sure I wasn't being too clever ruffing a heart early. Thanks. More is hidden:

so if it had been: 1♠ 2♥ 3♦ 3♠ it's more likely that partner only has 2 spades?

[hv=d=e&v=b&n=sa985h32dkcak7654&s=skt642hj8754d98c2]133|200|Scoring: MP P P P 1♣ 1♥ 1♠ P 2♠ P P P LHO leads, the A♥, then the A[DE], then the T♥, won by RHO. RHO exits the Q♦[/hv] I was super pressed for time, so I think I missed a couple of inferences at the table that I should totally have picked up on. So what should I be thinking about, and what should my plan be?

[hv=d=e&v=n&n=sk42hakj54dkq6ct8&s=sat973h7daj8caq76]133|200|Scoring: MP opps silent. T♥ led, RHO plays the 6 under your ace.[/hv] I only had about 3 minutes to plan and play this hand. What should I have been thinking, and what should my initial plan have been?

Playing matchpoints last night, playing 2/1, I had the following auction: 1♠ 2♥ 3♣ 3♠ 3NT ... My thought was that parnter might only have 2 spades. In the cold light of day, I'm not sure if that makes sense or not. Are their auctions in which both partners have bid the same major, but that you might want to bid 3NT along the way, just in case?

I held: ♠AKJ9 ♥A953 ♦3 ♣AK52

1. Bergen. Our default agreement is Bergen is off by a passed hand and in competition. Whether or not that is wise, should the following be Bergen or not? 1♠ (X) 3♣? 2. Ogust/Feature. The following came up: 2♥ (2♠) ? I had a 3-ace 4441 monster, and wondered if 2NT was still feature or Ogust. Should whatever your conventional meaning for a 2NT response to a weak 2 still be in in competition? Thanks. V

Whoops. You are, of course, completely correct. Q = (12C0)(26C5)/(38C5) = 65780/501942 = 0.1131 Qx = (12C1)(26C4)(38C5) = 12 * 14950/501942 = 0.3574 Overall: 1/3 + 2/3 x (0.1131 + 0.3574) = 0.6470

Whoops. You are, of course, completely correct. Q = Qx =

Your math seems wrong to me somehow. The probability of Queen-sixth is 1, and Qx + Qxx is greater than 1. I thought it was: nCr = n!/r!(n-r)! Q = (13C0)(26C5)/(39C5) = 65780/575757 = 0.1142 Qx = (13C1)(26C4)(39C5) = 13 * 14950/575757 = 0.3376 Qxx = (13C2)(26C3)/(39C5) = 0.3522 Qxxx = (13C3)(26C2)/(39C5) = 0.1614 Qxxxx = (13C4)(26C1)/(39C5) = 0.0323 Qxxxxx = (13C5)(26C0)/(39C5) = 0.0022 (Check: these values add up to 0.9999) So Q or Qx is 0.4518. So 1/3 + 2/3 x 0.4518 = 0.6345, or around 64%. Still way over 50%

Funny. I would have concluded that it's enough to bid reasonable games, and to not worry if you don't always make your contract. Changing your system entirely works too, although I would guess you still go down sometimes in reasonable contracts. 0.02 V

My plan is to lead low to the 9♠. If the ten is on my left, my path to 10 tricks seems clear. If LHO has at least 2 spades (he doesn't have more than 4), leading up to spades a second time should ensure me 3 spade tricks. The nice part is that I may need clubs in order to get to my spade winners, but RHO can't lead clubs without giving me a trick. Also, I'll hold onto the 2 of clubs, just in case.

Hate to derail the thread a bit more, but aren't there a whole host of strong 2-suited hands that partner might chose to open at the 1 level, rather than go through 2 clubs?

Yeah, I just read your line. Nice addition. I've missed that concept twice today now. :)

Duck trick 1 altogether. RHO has to win. Unless spades are 6-1 (~7%), he can't return a spade. Later I can draw trump, unblock ♥s, go to the A♠, and discard my last ♠ in hand on the Q♥.

Bloody hell! I could even see the danger, and the entry problem, but couldn't see the solution to both. I even mapped out that endgame, but couldn't see how to get there. I should absolutely find that play, but despite spending some time on the problem (more than I would at the table) I didn't see it. :)

If this is easy, then I'm a hopeless declarer. A♣, A♥ in case an honour falls. If it does, assume single. K♣, ♦ to the Q. If I lose and they return a ♠, A unless someone discarded a ♥ honour, in which case Q♥. If I played the A♠, ♥ to dummy hope they break. If the Q♦ holds, try hearts, and if they don't break, ♠ finesse for my 12th. I can't find anything better than trying to combine my chances in ♥s and ♠s, and if the A♦ is with RHO they can always stop me from doing so. There must be a better line than this.

It could be worse - just look at NCAA football. Conferences vie with each other for fame and notoriety (and big money TV deals), and who officiates conference games? The refs are paid by the conference. Huge conflict of interest. No change in sight, either. V

I would

Partner has 4-6 clubs. Partner is also light on HCP. Parnter having 6 clubs is very unlikely, as it would seem odd that LHO would suggest 3NT with Qx or worse in clubs. Definitely think about unblocking, so probably K, then return the J. This fails badly if declarer has QT43, but I don't think partner leads the 5 from 9865. Ymmv. ... In the second case, now I'm unblocking for sure.

For example, if you have a bad split in a side suit, or if someone bid/overcalled/weak 2'd indicating a bad split in a side suit.