vuroth

In isolation, 12 empty spaces vs 11?

I see it now. Thanks. V

If RHO covers the J♦ with the Q♦ and ♦s are 4-1 either way?

Can't I bid 3♣ now? Of course, if partner bids 3♦, I'm not sure. Maybe in that case 3NT. V

J♥, cross to K♦, draw the last trump. AK♠. If both follow on both rounds of spades, I'll lead the J♠, discarding a ♦, and I'll take 4♠s, 5♥s, 2♦s and 1♣. If ♠s are 5-1 or 6-0, I will have to fall back on the ♦ finesse for my 12th trick. Aside:

Sort of. Even though jlall/han say don't use empty spaces here (rightly so, there's way too much other info out there), in general some of the calculation isn't insanely hard. 7-2 diamond means: 6-11 empty spaces Difference between 1-2 and 0-3 is just the chances the third card goes one way vs the other. for this, we're talking: 6-9 empty spaces (hearts filled the first two). This is a nice neat ratio. 0-3 occurs 50% more often, in isolation, than 1-2. 1-2 vs 2-1 is similar, this time the empty spaces are: 5-10 So, here, 2-1 occurs twice as often as 1-2. Ok, so the actual percentages are harder to work out, but in general, distributions that are 1 card apart aren't too hard to work out at the table. V

Good point plaur - no cost to run the J and cover, and you pick up SOME QTx on the right. As for B/I, at the B/I level, I would think that many would fear partner having the singleton K♥. Maybe I'm wrong, and most would just cover an honour with an honour. V

AK♥. I'm not giving up Qx-x AND Q-xx just to gain v-QTx.

Nice. Thanks for sharing.

A♠, A♣, A♦, ♣ ruff, D♦, ♣ ruff, A♥, ♠ to the J. Hopefully LHO will be endplayed into leading a black card. If he exits a diamond, I'll lead a high heart, and hope to put the lead back on west.

Don't take my word for it, but.... 1 - Count me in for AK♦, ♣ to the K. If LHO can bid that way with 5HCP, he's got me. 2 - 4♣ either way.

Good point about the bias on lead. Good point. I had that the 4 was equally likely to be in each hand, but hadn't extended it to other leads. That's a useful at-the-table calculation. Thanks. In general, I'm probably over-calculating lately. Still, it's a useful exercise not only from the point of view of helping to remember the numbers (i.e. 3/3 is around 36%), but to challenge some of my incorrect notions and tendencies. Even if you only do a few calculations in your life on combining chances, it quickly becomes obvious that this is a vastly beneficial strategy. I also mentally hand-wave at too many problems that I should give serious thought to. I wondered about trying spades on this hand, but dismissed it as unlikely - the 3-3 fit isn't overly likely. Still, by dismissing it, I overlooked the possibility of combining chances. Anyways, thanks for the feedback han. As always, I appreciate you taking the time to correct my oversights. :)

Good point. If LHO has A-5th, you can't lose 2 club tricks even if you promote 2. So you lose to v KJTxx x KJTx xx KJT Hx KHx Hxx KH Or 10 of 32 cases, succeeding 68.8%. If LHO has A-4th, Siegmund's like works unless clubs are xx KJT x KJTx v KJTxx or 4 of 32, succeeding 87.5% That's something like a 78% chance combined for the Ace being with LHO, so han's line is slightly better either way. Thanks, han.

Not sure what you mean by onside, but LHO always has 4 or 5 diamonds, right? If LHO has the A♦, Siegmund's line seems quite secure. If RHO has A-fifth in ♦s, the opening lead sure fooled me.

Interesting. Han's line is a revelation to me. I tried the math, and the lines were pretty much a wash. Maybe someone with better math can puzzle it out for me. My reasoning is that, if the A♦ is on your left (more or less 50%, I guess a touch more), Siegmund's line is better. Unless LHO is KJT, KJTx or KJTxx in clubs, you're always getting 2 club tricks, and the KD is always coming home (regardless of what the hearts do) So 87.5%. Han's line is a little over 80% in this case, but not quite as good. If the A♦ is on your right, and we assume that RHO is never leading ♦s if he gets in (maybe this is unreasonable?), then both lines are longshots, but han's is better. Siegmund safely gets 2 club tricks around 40% of the time, and will have to try hearts for his 9th trick - which works maybe 25% of the time? With only 1 club safe club trick, Siegmund has no play I think. han will find spades 3-3 36% of the time, but 30% of THAT time LHO will have QHx and he'll be down straight away. If spades are 3-3 he still needs a 9th trick form hearts, and if spades aren't 3-3 he needs hearts PLUS the club finesse. I have it at something like 32%? EDIT: Ok I have it a dead heat. I took Siegmund's line at the table. I think a B/I who took either line would be above the B/I average. :( V

[hv=d=s&v=b&n=sqj83hqj72d8cakq7&s=sakt6hkt9dj6532c6]133|200|Scoring: IMP Opponents silent[/hv] If this seems completely wtp

I'm always a bit nervous posting problems, because it's always possible I've overlooked something that makes it a poor hand to share. (After all, I get so many of these wrong at the table...) Of course, I feel that way whenever I post my answers to others' problems, and it never stops me so... [hv=d=s&v=e&n=sa842ht2dkt2caq43&s=sk97hakq9dq3c9876]133|200|Scoring: IMP 1♣ 1♠ 1NT 3NT 5♦ led to the T, J, Q. Plan the play.[/hv]

Win in hand, A♦, ♦ ruff, Q♥. If ♥s are 2-2, eliminate the last diamond and throw them in in clubs. If ♥s are 3-1, I can't see anything better than finessing for the spade. If it's IMPs, I guess I would follow more or less the same plan, try to get count on the side suits. IF it's MPs, maybe I'm better to ensure that I don't go more than down 1, and finesse sooner against the short heart holding?

I suspect that natural is playable, but I think I prefer it to be strong/in support of hearts. Hands where you might have wished that 2♣ were natural can always rebid 2♦, right?

I know that one blogger posted some thoughts - start here: Link

Nice. I wanted to hope that it was 2 places to play, but was afraid I was nuts.

Not to sound petulant, but it must be nice to play against consistent opponents. I agree with points 1 and 3 if I'm on defense, but experience has told me that I really shouldn't read these kinds of things into my opponents when I'm declaring. I'll stop now.

I don't have a big problem with 1NT, but I'm not really sure how much it will cost. If opponent shut me out of the bidding, they're the ones in the dark. If partner is the one who shuts me out, I'm still not in bad shape, am I?

Must be nice to play against opponents who never lead low from xxxx or xxxxx in spades. If you're convinced LHO has the Q♦, better to play RHO for xxx in diamonds, and run hearts. Hopefully when you run 5 rounds of trump on him, he'll have to chose between discarding the Q♠, a diamond, or the J♣. (If RHO started with 4 diamonds, he'll have to discard at least one diamond, but then the above applies). If your opponent would lead a low spade from xxxx or xxxxx, I don't see this line being much higher percentage than the line I gave above, so I guess I'm still looking.

Double. I'm too strong to pass, and probably even too strong for 1♥. If it goes P ♠ P, I'll bid NT. I think partner will understand.