skjaeran

2♣ seem to be the obvious choice playing standard methods. With one of my regulars we apply transfer advances, 2♣ showing ♦'s and 2♦ being the good raise.

I agree about the 5. level, but I see no reason to hide my heart support. If we need to make a descission at the 6. level, he will be much better placed if I had told him about my support then not. When you rebid 5♠ you DO tell him about the ♥ support. You'd never take another bid in this position without the ♥ fit, so that's implied. Now you tell partner that your ♠ suit is good enough to play without support and that you probably can't use it as a trick source in a ♥ contract. So 5♠ gives a blueprint of your hand.

I don't think that you can. Private clubs can no longer be created, and even those in existence do not offer these facilities to my knowledge. I think he meant outside BBO...

84.9% probability that Italy will beat Norway in a head to head match? That's ridicolous. They've met in matches like this several times before. Those matches has as a rule been very close. Since 1995 the two teams have met three times at the KO stage of the BB. Norway have won twice, Italy once. Italy probably are favourites if they meet again, but not by much - maybe 55-60%. And your probabilitiies are likewise way too high for several other teams too. Let me just point out that this was not Helene's personal opinion. It is just the outcome of a model that has as input only the IMP scores of the round robin matches. Of course there may be more relevant information, and the model may not be the best model for this purpose, but I expect that the numbers Helene posted are the correct outcomes of her model, and calling them ridiculous doesn't make much sense. It's like saying that 1+1=2 is ridiculous because we should be computing 1+3. If so she should have presented her assuptions and how she computed these probabilities and asked the question what's wrong. Since it should be obvious that none of the figures presented could be anywhere near correct.

If I was on lead I MIGHT consider passing and leading a trump. Here passing is absolutely no alternative for me.

I know there was talk about Bergen among our ladies who attended the Riccione festival. I've not heard anything more about the matter later, so I'm quite sure that's not going to happen - unless there's something going on that I know nothing about (that would be a rare thing in my position). I'll check up on this.

Kxx is enough. I've got a minimum, but nothing wasted in diamonds, and controls in both side suits. So I'll bid 4♠. I'm not proud of my trumps though, so this is borderline.

I'd not have bid 4♦. But that's a question of style and agreements. OK if it fit partner's expectations. 7♥ simply doesn't exist. No reason to belive all keycards are there (in fact one should be missing when partner doesn't bid 5NT vs an unlimited hand).

Good analysis Art!

As it is in Norway, and in most countries I'd think.

The main issue should be to broadcast interesting matches. Not to broadcast all teams. The vugraph coverage isn't for the teams, rather for the audience. I surely can understand that there are people watching from all countries playing, and all(most) would like to watch their compatriots. But that should be only a secondary issue IMHO.

You need the spade hook and to discard a spade on the ♦J. At first I can't see much point in ducking the lead, so I take the ace. I need to set up the diamond trick in dummy in time. I guess I'll play off the trump ace (instinctively that seems right to me) before playing a diamond. Guess I've missed something here, but not sure what.

Undiscussed, this double is penalty. I'm used to playing it as penalty, but can see the arguments for playing it as t/o. I open the 2nd hand 1♣. Agree with Frances to rebid 3♥ if sure this is forcing, else 4♥.

Like Adam I disagree with those negative comments about the 5♠ bid. I think bidding 5♠ is almost compulsory with this hand. You expect at least on of the sides to make a 5-level contract with this oneloser suit and 3-card fit with partner. A 6-level save will probably be good against a game contract too, whether opps can make slam or not.

I'd also overcall 2♥ all day long with that hand. You really need to get in or you might easily have a big problem coming in at all when it's your hand. I'm more reluctant to overcall in a minor suit though. I'd still do it with this hand, but then it's more borderline to me.

You're probabbly right, but why does my model say 84.9% then? Which of my assumptions are more likely to be wrong? I'm no statitican, and I don't really know how you have computed your probabilites, nor what assumptions you've made. But knowing that the score in head to head competition in the KO stage in BB is Norway 2 - Italy 1 and that Norway actually beat Italy (narrowly) in their outing in the RR, common sense alone will tell you that your probability must be way off. And even after Italy beat USA1 63-0 in the RR I can't believe the odds for an Italian victory in an hypothetical semifinal/final encounter with a 16/20 IMP carry over could be more than 60% at most. The Italians are very good at crushing the weaker teams - just look to the European Championships (and there are "weak" teams relatively speaking in the BB too) - and thus always do well in round robins. But the knock out stage is something different. Even in long matches other strong teams have a reasonable chance to beat them, they are far from unbeatable, even if they are a really formiddable team.

Can't see any other reasonable start than pass.

84.9% probability that Italy will beat Norway in a head to head match? That's ridicolous. They've met in matches like this several times before. Those matches has as a rule been very close. Since 1995 the two teams have met three times at the KO stage of the BB. Norway have won twice, Italy once. Italy probably are favourites if they meet again, but not by much - maybe 55-60%. And your probabilitiies are likewise way too high for several other teams too.

There's no way it could be non-forcing.

Huh, is this intended as a problem? I'd lead the ♥Q in my sleep.

3♠ was OK for me. Nothing intelligent to add now, so I pass. Partner is better placed to make a decision, and he is the more wide ranged hand.

Normally a pass, but 1♥ is possible if I'm in the mood for it. Not 2♣. According to Sabine you should overcall 2♣ over 1♦ as often as possible - I just don't agree. :)

Some might disagree maybe - I'm not one of them. On the contrary, I strongly agree with 4♠ by north.

I can understand why Italy are favourites in most people's eyes - that's very reasonable. But there's several teams in the competition who's got a 40-50% chance of beating them in a head to head match, and has done so on more than one occasion over the last 5-6 years. The Italian team haven't IMO looked quite as impressive as earlier the last year, and certainly not in the first part of the Round Robin. I'd give them 25-30% chance of winning the event now, after they have gotten their play more together now. I'd say USA1 20-25%, Poland and USA2 15%, Norway and Netherlands 10%, Other 10-20%.

That means LHO has J986 AKJx KJ QJx, give or take the ♦J - a 15-17NT, consistent with his bidding.