benlessard

In a strong NT universe (Canada) most strong and ALL average players defend much worse against a weak/mini NT then over a 15-17 setup. Its not the first bid the problem its the follow up. If bridge was just about the first bid we wouldnt playing it. After a penalty X are all other X penalty ? What if opps XX that its to play ? How much stenght is showned by 1Nt---(X)----P (to play)------(PULL) pass--(raise) If you overcall how much strength do i need to raise, how much to bid a new suits ? If you X and bid a suit later how much strength do i need to raise to bid a new suits ? Is a new suit by doubler forcing after advanced made an unforced bid ? What our way to find 4-4 fits after an overcall ? What about balancing positions ? etc I agree that most is about bridge logic but tuning is still highly necessary. A big part of an average player bidding knowledge is opening/response/rebid by opener. If you remove that by playing a dominant system (dominant as you are forcing them to play in your world of expertise) players just lose a big part of their knowledge and of their fun. Im all for FP system, we are playing relay system with a lot of relay that dont show inv strenght of better that are rarely allowed in tournaments so i feel the pain. Also instead of constantly alerting ill be glad to put my system away for a while, to just relax, try to nail them, preempt when they pass and collect the imps. But most wont be so happy to use their hard-working system only in 1st seat. Just that in reality tuning your bridge for FP system is a pain for everybody. Anyway you have to rely to higher authority to make the decision, im sure that from time to time they are checking the pulse of the population and when they feel the time is right they will allow it in the stronger events and depending of the success theyll make a decision. But dont be too optimist , Im pretty sure that ill have the right to marry a pet mouse before seeing FP in pair events. I remember the ATP where trying slightly bigger balls for tennis they where more visible and despite going the same speed you had the feeling they were slower giving you more control and everything. Ive had great time playing with those tennis balls and im sure all amateur players would have enjoyed them a lot but unfortunatly after asking to the players they decided to switch back to the old ball and the bigger balls disapear from the market. So in the end top level players often have the last word. I agree 100% with that statement.

Yep my bad. My number arent good because we have to take into account that some H cards are gone while none of the D cards are gone. So with 2H and 4.5 diamonds. 1/7 x 2 vs 1/13 x 4.5 diamonds. Will give the right proportion. As the points go up the proportions should stay the same unless you are very near to the limit. But my main point was that if i hold. JT98765432 2 2 2 Without restrictions every honnor has equal prob. Now if parnter got a balanced hand its obvious that hes going to have a S honnor more often than any other honnors. But its pertinent to a much lower degree to the cases where getting card is proportionnal to the expected length.

You wont buy the hand so why tell declarer how to play the hand ? As for lead directing its unlikely theyll play in NT. At a suit contract. Its possible that a S lead blow a trick while a D lead is best but other than that I see no point in preempting.

game is borderline and unbiddable unless some major steaming. trumps 32 68% & clubs finesse about 60% = 40%

Having a balanced hands tend to bonify the short suits. So if my hand is 4603 and no restrictions are put. partner chance of having the 2 of clubs VS the 2 of D are the same & every cards that i dont hold partner will have the same prob of getting them. But if hes got a balanced hand. Then all the hands where he hold with a stiff H/S or with 6D/6C are discarded. These will be much more frequent than the opposites hands that are also discarded (stiff in a m or 6M suits.) This created an inflation on the numbers of cards partner hold in my long suits. But in no way this increased the likeliness that each of partner H card will be the Q vs the ratio of D for being a Q, it just mean that his average H lenght is longer than expected because he is biased by having a balanced hand. But these are completly irrelevant here and in most bridge hands. edited ive understand that youve put no restriction for the bidding. I dont really understand why you did that but other than that your sims are surely good. Here partner has exactly 2H and cannot have 4S. So partner chances of holding the HQ and not holding the Q of D vs holding the DQ and not the HQ are directly proportionnal to the average expected lenght that we give for the diamonds if we use a conservative lenght of 4.5 diamonds 2♥/4.5 ♦ Partner will hold the Q of ♥ without the Q of ♦ 3 times and will hold the Q of ♦ without the ♥Q 7 times. So partner is at least twice as likely to hold a D honor without the counterpart in H then holding the H honnor without the equal honnor in Diamonds.

[hv=n=s764hjd3cajt86532&w=skqhaqt8542da75c7&e=st98hk963dqjt92c9&s=saj532h7dk864ckq4]399|300|[/hv] 4S/5H makes 5C is down. Probably that if NS bid 5C it will stop there while if he bid just 2S/3S/3C EW should reach 5H. [hv=n=s764hjd3cajt86532&w=skqhaqt8542da75c7&e=st98hk963dqjt92c9&s=saj532h7dk864ckq4]399|300|[/hv] 5C isnt good but it makes, 4S doesnt. [hv=n=s764hjd3cajt86532&w=skqhaqt8542da75c7&e=st98hk963dqjt92c9&s=saj532h7dk864ckq4]399|300|[/hv] Highy questionnable 2H overcall i just didnt want to do a michaels nor pass with the hand. 4S makes 5C is down.

[hv=n=s764hjd3cajt8xxxx&w=sj52hakt654dk7ck9&e=st8hq732dq98654cq&s=sakq93h98dajt2c74]399|300|[/hv] This is the first deal where 5C makes and 4S deosnt but it takes an impossible lead of the K of D or the 9 of clubs. [hv=n=s764hjd3cajt8xxxx&w=sj52hakt654dk7ck9&e=st8hq732dq98654cq&s=sakq93h98dajt2c74]399|300|[/hv] I didnt do a M cue with W, one of the fairly rare hands where 4S makes but not 5C. [hv=s=sakj532h73dk96c74]133|100|[/hv] 4S cold,5C no play. [hv=w=sa93hk6432dak7cq9&s=skqjt2hat7dqj92ck]266|200|[/hv] If you lead a high diamonds followed by A and small trump 4S is down 1, 5C makes.

I meant that 1S----(2H)------2S-----(4H) P------(P)-------5C I hope you dont take 5C as slam try. 1S----(2H)------2S-----(4H) P------(P)-------4S 4S here IMO show H shortness without super trumps (with 4 trumps and a stiff H not close to a limit I would bid 4S directly. If they bid 5H partner shoulndt compete and wont play me for a bundle. Some hands where the opps will bid and raise D partner can figure out that i have clubs lenght. but i dont expect him to pull to 5C anyway i just expect him to not X 5H with his KQ of clubs. Ive just sims the hands. Ive put nobody VUL so with fairly agressive 2H overcall (10-19) Ive removed the hands where W has a michaels instead of an overcall (quite frequent) and ive removed hands like AKQJTxx xx Kxx x since i believe that i would open those with 4S or with namyats. 4S by south makes 28% 5C by north makes 24% 4H by west makes 54% 5H by west makes 30% PS I also have to check for 5D by E. This is a terrible hand for DD because north doesnt have a clear lead vs a H contract and west will lead trumps with impossible holdings. Im wondering if its possible to impose a lead with DM pro and if so what would you lead with north hand vs 5H assuming most common bidding sequences by EW.

What does it show then ? I mean i hope you dont usually bid 2S and take a sac at the 4 level without distribution. Anyway if you dont trust your partner to figure it out than you still can bid 2S and if partner doesnt rebid his spades then you might try for 5C. My feeling is that he will rebid them. 5C might be a terrible doubled contract, 4S may be a great contract and its quite possible that neither side may make a 5 level contract.

Youre a not using the right approach to calculate. You cannot visualize a distribution and put HCP in it. The distribution is a restriction for the the hcp and the hcp is a restriction for the distribution you have to sims them together not 1 after the other. Another way to see it... Partner has 2H. Only time hes got 3 hearts is if slow values in the minors. If hes has 2D. It means 4-5 in the blacks Holding AJ of clubs make it higly unlikely that OP has 5 clubs because the missing HCP is a restriction on his distribution. So therfore the % of having short D drops proportionally to the hcp restriction. Another example Q xxxx xxxx AKQJ You know that partner got a strong NT. Because hes got 0 HCP in clubs hes more likely to be long in D/H than in clubs. So when holding J Axxx xxxx AKxx The odds of having the Q of clubs isnt really higher than having the Q of D. Its not that easy to understand or to explain but i can assure you that im 100% sure that your numbers are wrong.

The stiff diamonds + A of clubs + the fact that i dont have a super fit make it likely they dont make 5H. So no need to go crazy for saving, its could easily be your hand. 2nd is 5C a better contract than 4S ? Maybe, maybe not. Im not willing to gamble on this. I think bidding 2S and bidding 4S over 4H will show 3/4 card supports short heart and extras distribution. This a a fair description of my hand. Bidding 3S has a lot to offer too if it could help partner to know what to over 4/5H but its not so clear. I prefer 2S.

What im saying is that the Q of D is more likely than the Q of H and its not close.

Its normal that when holding semi-balanced hands that you are more interested in what partner hold than making a descriptive bid. Its just that if your system isnt built for it the benefits are probably marginal, in the example partner will often raise to 3C giving little information while if you bid 2H and partner raise you are much better placed. If you often bid 2C on fake suit that partner will bid 2 red with a 4 card suit instead of raising you. If youre often tempted to bid 2C often on fake suit why not just play a relay system im sure youll like it.

Agree 100%. I prefer to have 2 real quick tricks when opening light. This doesnt take into account that sometimes you want to X the opponents.

Dont tell me you really check his post when he put tons of numbers I always skip them, just a quick look a them and i laugh. I mean QH 61% QC 56% QS 52% QD 46% How is it possible that partner is more likely to have the Q of H than the Q of D ? If you have a void in D and 6H it doesnt take a genius to know that partner is more likely to be long in D and short in H. So its simply not possible to have the HQ more often than any other queens.... Just kidding... i believe your number are usually write but youve surely done something wrong this time.

http://forums.bridgebase.com/index.php?sho...hl=muppet&st=15 Play what ive written in the last post and try to improve it. Being able to show 55/54/45/ and all fit where opener has 5M without allowing a bunch of lead directing X. We are using this setup over 1Nt/ strong club opening and over 2C precision. Rarely regret it to play that way.

ACB are still around for sure. Im not too fond of them but this is a perfect case for them. You ask for a stopper if partner show 1 (by bidding 3Nt) you give fit and partner know youve made a cuebid. If partner doesnt have the stoppers you know all his points are working all you ll do fine. I think 3C is terrible since my suit is crap facing a stiff. Speaking of crap that is what i think of "2C GF over 1D".

The full hand is something like [hv=n=saxxxht98dtxxckxx&w=skqjtxxhkxxdqxcxx&e=sxhxd98xxcaqjtxxx&s=sxxhaqjxxxdakjxcx]399|300|Scoring: IMP[/hv] Its a declarer problem that isnt tough . If defense take the K of H and return S you ll know RHO is 1147 therefore your only hope is to drop the Q of D. I think LHO can find the duck of the K of H since he pretty much know the whole hand. Declarer may go wrong by finessing diamond at this point especially if the duck wasnt so smooth.

Qxx Kx AKQJT KQx Even 4 is in danger. AK of S lead. club switch. K of H and now you have to pitch 2S even if they are winners before playing H to the T. Over 4C would you bid 4D or since you have like the worst hand possible bid 4H ? We werent bidding this hand but i find it painful, if you bid 4D its forward going but if you dont partner will just be more excited because hes thinking you dont have the D ace. I think its not that easy to stop in 4H.

I can assure you that my methot is playable wheiter its superior or inferior is not an easy matter. The question is wheiter a shortness or a fragment is a more useful feature. After showing a long minor (lets assume diamonds with or without superacceptance.) Methot 1 showing shortness at least slightly slammish. 3H= shortness in heart may or may not have stoppers in the other suits. 3S = shortness in S may or may not have stoppers in the other suits. 3Nt = to play facing a SA, mild slam try facing a non SA. 4C club shortness. rest is whatever you want Over 3H you have 2 style options 1a - 3S show a very good 4 card suit or a S with or without ♣&♥ stops/ 3Nt is ♥ stop/ rest is slam going or no stops. 1b - to bid 3S with a spade stops but no club stop or advanced cue/ 3 Nt show H stops and rest is slam or no stops. I believe 1a to be superior if opening 1Nt with 5M is possible. over 3S you dont really have options. 3Nt not foward going with a S stopper. rest is foward going but i suggest that you use 4H as natural and not a cue. Over 4C you should aim for slam rather than reaching 4M. So all bids a cue or ace asking or soff. ----------------------------------- my method. 3H show at least Qx/xxx in H may or may not have stops in the others suits. 3S show at least Qx in S and without H fragment. 3Nt show nothing in the M therefore good diamonds or strong clubs. 4C void. 4D keycard 4H void 4S void. Over 3H 3S show a S stoppers but no C stop or adv cue. 3Nt show stops in both other suits. 4C is a cue 4D is keycard 4H is showing 5H. Over 3S 3Nt stops in H 4C & + foward going or no H stops 4S is showing 5S. --------------------------- In conclusion in my method my 3S bid is similar to your 3H bid except that it can show xx. My 3H bid is way more frequent as it may show a stiff culbs a stiff S and a hand willing to play 3nt. IMO showing stiff is better for slam bidding but worse for COG. Since a minor transfer facing a possible 5M nt opener lead to 3Nt/4M/5m i believe my method is at least equal or better. PS An important difference for us is that our minor transfer are not invitationnal so we dont need to bid 3Nt just because partner SA our inv hands and we feel that a gamble in 3Nt is a better shot than an unlikely 5m. But even without that i know that bidding fragment as a lot to offer.

Just bid 3Nt. If partner as a wide open major he will pull. Singleton are a bit more frequent than 3 card or fragment. So for slam bidding i can understand that showing a singleton might be superior but for COG bidding a fragment seems better since it allow you to play 4M in 5-3 or 4-3 fits.

There is lightyear of difference between Polish/Fantunes and a fert bid. In one case the defense fit in 1 page in the FP it take at least 10 pages of agreements. The FP isnt really a problem it the frigging fert that the problem.

IMO a cornerstone of bridge is that the opponents are entitled to the same information than the partnership. Its something impossible to do completly even with the best explanations and good will. But it still something we should aim at all time. So banning complex methods where the inference are impossible to draw for 99.9% of the opponents is just common sense. I voted for 100+ boards matches and only 1 pair per team giving seating rights.

X I have good chance of being able to rebid 1Nt on the 2nd round if not 2Nt over 2C is ok. The tough problem imo is if it goes. (1D)---X-----(1M)-----P (2M)---???

I dont know if 4S in example 3 is that obvious but its way less dangerous than in example 1. I would need to smoke fairly strong stuff to bid 4S on hand 1 and pass on hand 3. Understanding VUL and its consequence is not obvious.