benlessard

West has a 100% pass. Not even close. You should never pull a 4 level double in a contract you have little hope to make. East has a double but hes minimum for the action and if he hand a 5530 shape ill prefer 4Nt to double. 4Sx making +1 is a normal result here

I keep getting this comment a lot and i think that we must be doing something wrong since we are constantly getting good result with our 2C opening ;) I strongly suggest to drop the 2D, its too rare not so efficient and the alternative of opening 2C is equal or just slightly inferior. Just that you ll need to find a way to deal with 4414.

Laws and rules of games are conventionnal. sometimes there is no logic behind these other than to make the game more agreable. Playing duplicate does vulnerability make sense ? What about 100,300,500,700,900, wich meant that you could go down 10 and make a profit. How about revoke that cost 2 tricks while some dont cost nothing. Bridge is a hidden information game where players communicate information with bids that they defined themselves, yet all players are entitled to the same informations. So you have to rely that agreements and styles that was accumulated over the years can be explained in simple terms to the opponents. Some players dont like preempting with 3 card in the other majors they ll rarely do it, yet some will find any excuse to make a weak 2. Yet if you ask for information to both of them they will likely say the same old *****... we are white so we can be pretty agressive tend to be 6 card but could be 5 with 5-10hcp. One partnership will preempt on Jxxxx,x,KJxxx,xx and the other will pass AQTxx,xxx,x,Qxxx . Did you get a correct information ? In a strict sense yes. Did you get all the information ? Surely not. Wheiter we like or not this happen all the time at all the level. We will never be able to give information clear enough to compensate specific knowledge that is accumulated through years of partnerships. So in my view any system where partneship understanding and inference are much more complex than the information you ll give to the opps can be banned and i wont lose sleep at all.

That why im not fond of 2D precision. Its not clear the 3415/4315 are better at 2D than at 2C. And its clear losing the 2D preempt is a higher cost than the downside of opening 4414 with 1M or 1Nt + the downside of 4405 hands.

21- Depending on agreement 1S------1Nt 2C------2H (by a passed hand this ask to correct to 2S without H support) 3H------4H 1S------1Nt 2C------2S all pass. (2D)-----X-------3H-------4H 4H is 50% depending on defense and line take by declarer. so im giving push 22- 2Dx is -500 If west open 1D NS will probably be -300 at 2Cx or -500 at 1Hx. Im giving -3 23- West open 2Nt----3Nt make on the Q h lead. If south open 2D---X-----2S will reach 4S wich is very unlikely to make. so +10. 24- Pretty hard to see if a bad 6H will be reached after 2D or after a 2C opener. im giving push here. 25- 4H by west without a D lead or 4H by east will make so push.

16- push 17- over 2D youll reach 3Nt making. if west open 1Nt i expect 3Nt 50% and 4S down 50% so -5 18-push 19- shouldnt reach 6 so push 20- 4M will be reached and down push.

I have no problem with your methot and i prefer to play a relay of some kind of relay either 1Nt or 2C as artificial than needing a good hand with 5 clubs to use the premium spot of 2C. Just i think the post is a "standard approach" so opener will be expecting a suit. I believe that winning slam bidding is 50% about establishing suit and 25% about ruff and 25% about seeing if the hand mesh well (balanced vs balanced). Bidding fake suit and cuebidding Ken style start by seeing if the hand mesh well and if a long suit that meshed well is providing tricks i have no problem with that. Just like i said in my previous post if you have no tools or no agreement about bidding a short 2C the advantage of getting a hand where you believe a short 2C in standard is the correct bid the advantage will be marginal. However if your system is built around it then NP.

[hv=n=sj987haq75dk86c53&w=saq532hk96dqcaq72&e=skthjt432dj92ckt8&s=s64h8dat7543cj964]399|300|[/hv] [hv=n=sj987haq75dk86c53&w=saq532hk96dqcaq72&e=skthjt432dj92ckt8&s=s64h8dat7543cj964]399|300|[/hv] [hv=n=sj987haq75dk86c53&w=saq532hk96dqcaq72&e=skthjt432dj92ckt8&s=s64h8dat7543cj964]399|300|[/hv] [hv=n=sj987haq75dk86c53&w=saq532hk96dqcaq72&e=skthjt432dj92ckt8&s=s64h8dat7543cj964]399|300|[/hv] [hv=n=sj987haq75dk86c53&w=saq532hk96dqcaq72&e=skthjt432dj92ckt8&s=s64h8dat7543cj964]399|300|[/hv]

[hv=d=n&v=n&n=st9hk54dk982cat52&w=saqj873haq93d6ckq&e=sk52hjt762dqjc873&s=s64h8dat7543cj964]399|300|Scoring: IMP[/hv] [hv=d=n&v=n&n=st9hk54dk982cat52&w=saqj873haq93d6ckq&e=sk52hjt762dqjc873&s=s64h8dat7543cj964]399|300|Scoring: IMP[/hv] [hv=d=n&v=n&n=st9hk54dk982cat52&w=saqj873haq93d6ckq&e=sk52hjt762dqjc873&s=s64h8dat7543cj964]399|300|Scoring: IMP[/hv] [hv=d=n&v=n&n=st9hk54dk982cat52&w=saqj873haq93d6ckq&e=sk52hjt762dqjc873&s=s64h8dat7543cj964]399|300|Scoring: IMP[/hv] [hv=d=n&v=n&n=st9hk54dk982cat52&w=saqj873haq93d6ckq&e=sk52hjt762dqjc873&s=s64h8dat7543cj964]399|300|Scoring: IMP[/hv]

Hand 1 6Nt make because of black squeeze while 6H will go down i cannot say that the preempt will help or annoy to reach the best spot... so puch. hand 2 i doubt 6 will be reach missing 2 keycard but only 6Nt will make. Hand 3 no game and impossible to stop below. push. hand 4 Its tougher to reach 6H after the preempt but not impossible. im giving +1.

[hv=d=n&v=n&n=sj932ht954d98ck32&w=sakq5hak2dk62ca87&e=st87hqj763dqjcqt5&s=s64h8dat7543cj964]399|300|Scoring: IMP[/hv] [hv=d=n&v=n&n=sj932ht954d98ck32&w=sakq5hak2dk62ca87&e=st87hqj763dqjcqt5&s=s64h8dat7543cj964]399|300|Scoring: IMP[/hv] [hv=d=n&v=n&n=sj932ht954d98ck32&w=sakq5hak2dk62ca87&e=st87hqj763dqjcqt5&s=s64h8dat7543cj964]399|300|Scoring: IMP[/hv] [hv=d=n&v=n&n=sj932ht954d98ck32&w=sakq5hak2dk62ca87&e=st87hqj763dqjcqt5&s=s64h8dat7543cj964]399|300|Scoring: IMP[/hv] Hand 14 was removed because north had AJT853, KJ6543 x wich i pass but felt most would open here.

[hv=n=sjtxhaj63djck8732&w=sakq72hq97dq62ca5&e=s953hkt542dk98cqt&s=s64h8dat7543cj964]399|300|[/hv] Ithink that over 2D reaching 3Nt is possible at least 50%, over a club lead playing the Q and finessing the H is normal. If no preempt 4H is making but youll probably reach 4S wich will go down. Ill give -5 for the preempt. [hv=n=sjtxhaj63djck8732&w=sakq72hq97dq62ca5&e=s953hkt542dk98cqt&s=s64h8dat7543cj964]399|300|[/hv] 2D would go for -800 but i dont think west can pass so push. [hv=n=sjtxhaj63djck8732&w=sakq72hq97dq62ca5&e=s953hkt542dk98cqt&s=s64h8dat7543cj964]399|300|[/hv] 4H will make because of the squeeze in the blacks. So push here. "AQT972","Q75","J","AT8", "J53","AJ32","Q98","K32", "K8","KT964","K62","Q75", "64","8","AT7543","J964","9", I think game will be bid and even if south get a ruff in 4S it will make so push. [hv=n=sjtxhaj63djck8732&w=sakq72hq97dq62ca5&e=s953hkt542dk98cqt&s=s64h8dat7543cj964]399|300|[/hv] Some would preempt with east but i dont. Over 2D west has a nasty problem. I feel that the slight overbid of X and 3C is the way to go. I think 3C will make as north wont get a S trick (M squeeze or blow the club trick. If south pass EW will reach a no play 4H. Im giving -3 for 2D.

"QJT8","AJ2","J","AKQ53", "AK75","Q9643","962","7", "932","KT75","KQ8","T82", "64","8","AT7543","J964" 3nt making push [hv=n=sajt52hq542dqj2c8&w=s97haj6dkcakqt732&e=skq83hkt973d986c5&s=s64h8dat7543cj964]399|300|[/hv] 3Nt by West will make because South wont go up on the QD lead. 4H by east is trickier but should make. preempt or not doesnt matter = push. "AJ5","AK963","J96","A2", "KQ832","QJT52","K2","T", "T97","74","Q8","KQ8753", "64","8","AT7543","J964","3" All road lead to 3Nt and since club dont break 3Nt is going down. push "[hv=n=sajt52hq542dqj2c8&w=s97haj6dkcakqt732&e=skq83hkt973d986c5&s=s64h8dat7543cj964]399|300|[/hv] 2Dx -2 vs 4H-1 ... =-11 [hv=n=sajt52hq542dqj2c8&w=s97haj6dkcakqt732&e=skq83hkt973d986c5&s=s64h8dat7543cj964]399|300|[/hv] Here i think reaching 6S is fairly easy but 6H goes down. You have more chance of reaching going wrong after the preempt so im giving +2 for 2D.

I think you are smoking some clubs, its a green plant with little leaves but... To say that partner will be well placed because he know how many clubs hes got in is hand is pretty deep thinking. There is just so many clubs holding that should be good but arent because my club holding is Kxx. Txxx xxxxx AQJ AQ Etc... One of the main point of 2/1 it to be able to determine source of tricks to reach those 20-low 30 hcp slams. I have no problems to sacrifing 2C to show a balanced hand or whatever type of hands. But youll need a way to show a real clubs suit sooner or later. Its impossible to think that 1M----2C----3C where 2C tend to show 5 clubs and that 3C is a raise VS 1M----2C----3C where 2C could be a lot of things and 3C tend to show 4 is equivalent. You are nowhere near the ball park when you have no idea how many trick the suit can yield. If you bid 2C you are taking the captaincy, youll hope that partner will be able to describe his hand and youll manage to make a decision. To say that 2C will help partner understand the value of his club holding is complete crap.

Mighty mouse instead of dead man. Not close

Pass----(Pass)-------2H-------(X) ??? What to you play here ? Are you always pulling with a void and never pulling with a stiff ?

Its big drawback to rebidding 2C is if partner has clubs. 1S----2C-----3C 1S----2H-----3C In 1, 3C show 3 to 5 clubs with or without 6S with or without 3/4 H. In 2, 3C show at least 4C without 3/4 H, probably without 6S unless very good clubs.

A simple way to improve 2/1 is to play that 2C show a fit and that 2Nt and over is hands with clubs. It allow to play at the 2 level with a limit raise. It allow to show a fit and show a suit or to show a suit and show a fit. Its allow 2 kind of splinters. The downside is that hands with clubs you make 2 bids in a single shot not allowing partner to make a bid between the 2. 1S-----??? 2C at least 3S 10+... could be 2344 (if 15+ strong) 2D nat but could be 1444 if unsuitable for 3Nt. 2H nat 2S nat 2Nt GF balanced with clubs 3C GF clubs rebidabble 3D clubs + D 3H clubs + H 3S clubs + S fit with very good clubs 3Nt balanced 13-15 or 1444 allowed. 4C void 4D void. 1S-----2C 2D nat 2H nat 2S minimum with 6S or with S+C If partner rebid 2S hes showing a limit raise. any other bid is fairly natural but tend to show a bad 5 card suits. Splinters are singleton (or a different range than the direct splinters)

its included. So if they reached a bad contract with or without your 2D is doesnt count So if they reached a good contract no matter what is doesnt count.

Just for the fun of it. What % of times do you think that your preempt will put them in a bad contract (that lose imps vs the contract they would reach if they had a free run. What % of times do you think that your preempt will put them in an good contract. What % do you expect to get nailed and lose at least 9 imps (-800 vs a game or -500 vs a partscore). What % do you expect that because of the overcall declarer can read and go plus instead of minus.

If you are hoping than your 2D is going to stop them for slam or push them in the wrong game more often than you will suffer a bad big number its either because you think opps can relay the hand a reach a tough to bid slam or you play against weak players. I believe that vs better than average players it will help them more (in the play and in the bidding) then it will annoyed them. So you are risking a penalty for nothing.

In your case. you have a 0805 partner average is 4.333 (13 divided by 3 players) 1.666 (5/3) 4.333 2.6666 (8/3) after discarding all hands with a stiff a void or a 6 cards suits. His average hand will be something like 3.9 2.2 3.9 3 So hes 30% something more favorite to hold any missing H than usual and 15% more likely to have a specific C card.

Its not hard to understand. If you have 10 S and patrner show a balanced hands his number of S (2 or 3) is above his normal expectancy of spades (1). If my hand is 4441 in average he should have a 3334 if he hold a 3334 all the missing cards in the deck have the same probablilty. But if he showed a 5??5. so hes 60% more likely to have a specific S card and 25% more likely to have a specific club card.

Both 5C and 6D are overbid. he know partner K of H is wasted and he already made 1 cuebid 3 ace is nice but its still minimum in the context of forcing to 5D. Also even if some wont like to make a splinter with a stiff H I think 3H/4H might be a better bid than 2H, facing a minimum hand or a hand with H waste slam seems a bit unlikely.

Ive checked a couple of more hands and my conclusion is that 4S is slightly better game than a club contract by about 5% out of 30% wich is 1/6, im pretty sure about it. However if youre W vs R 5C is probably a better bid since it might stop them from 5 red wich might make or be a cheap save, i have no strong opinion for W vs W. Vul however bidding 5C seems to be a small mistake since youll get X in 5C significantly more often than in 4S while if you get X in 4S you can pull to 5C. Bidding 3C has no advantage over 5C and none over 2S since clubs support by opener is fairly irrelevent for knowing if 5C is better than 4S. Curiously i saw no correlation between club support as a factor for seeing if 5C is better than 4S. However as club support increased the chance of making 5red by opps increased drastically.