benlessard

Swith the Q of D for the Q of C or give him a 6th spades. I think it mostly depend of the extra playing strenght expected for 3S & with what hands do you expect partner to raise to 4.

yep if 4254 he has to have the K of H. A of H and H seems better then running the Q.

You are right i somewhat screw up this 1. RHO pass has to show either 4S and a 5m or 3S and at least 1 4 card minor. So the only distribution seems to be 4153 ----3343

I think 4S is the proper bid Our hand make 4 facing AKxxx,xxx,xxx,xx and even AQJxx will lead to a good game.

Im a believer in the middle club. With the K of club LHO would probably have return a trump. (of course the fact that the T♠ was won by the A says that your S are solid) but since you tried the T of S (suggesting that you expect them to make mistakes)

The problem i see is that if Q of D, A of D, spades. eliminating the S ending in dummy and run the Q of H (if west has showned all the points) to pick up stiff T or to endplay stiff KH he will exit with a 4th round of spades. But maybe its the best line anyway since LHO can be 3154. I think that he 2D bid tend to show 3154 i guess that anyhand with 4S will bid 1S. I think a fair amount of pair will bid in 3H so i dont see the need to make any safety play.

With an advanced partner I would bid 5Nt PAS that show 3 clubs or a red 2suiter. Partner will bid 5C everytime hes got 6 of them and will only bid 5D with 3 suiter 0445,1444 & with 1345,1435 (with lousy clubs)

Clear 2S the turn earlier (even im partner sometimes open crap in 3rd seat). Before partner X it a reasonnable assumption to think partner is going to be short in H. My hand is great. I have 9pts all working a Qx support so its an easy 2S. Once i pass and see the X i regret my previous mistake of passing and bid a chicken 2S.

My style is that if I X and bid 4S I show a great hand with defensive values. With purely offensive hands powerhouse I prefer to bid a direct 4S (at the risk of missing some slams) or to overcall 1S knowing the bidding wont stop. So X and 4S clearly setup forcing pass and after 6H if I was interested in slam I would have made a forcing pass. Even if not playing forcing pass i would expect 5H to go down so im not afraid of 6H making. bidding 6S seems is just a big gamble. As for the previous hand i would have bid 4S but 3S isnt that bad. In MP this is a clear 4S bid because 3S is only competitive (3S down 1 over 3H making is a good deal) but at Imps you are never bidding 3S to "sacrifice over a partscore" bidding 3S means that you are going to make 3S some amount of time. So that why 3S is always showing extra playing strenght. The 2nd hand is about the same thing its a clear X for me (2C is terrible) but i dont think pass is a big mistake.

W vs W imps (3H)---??? you dont play NLM if you X and correct to 4D it doesnt show extra strenght. my suggested calls are .. T53","K","AQT84","AK94 Pass A732","9","AK98542","T double "QT6","6","AKJ95","KQT4" double "AJ6","","KT85432","KQ8" double "KT63","A","AT642","Q62" double "A83","4","A987652","AQ" double "2","J","AKQ97653","Q94" 4D "6","Q92","AKJT9","KT64" pass "J843","A","KQJT93","Q6" pass "Q82","","AQJT76","AT98" double "T9","T6","AKQ92","AJT3" double "A98","A5","AKJT9","J94 3Nt "A","KQ4","K8752","AQ54" 3Nt "QJ865","T","AQ763","A3" 3S "JT","AT","AQJ982","842" pass "AQ","K2","AQ842","AQ82" 3Nt "J43","K6","KQJ76","A54" double "AQ9","QJ","KQJT9","QJ3" double or pass "63","J4","AKQT9","KQ76" double "A62","J76","K8432","AK" pass "QT93","AJ","AKQ876","7" double "AKT4","72","AJ8543","6" double "7","AQ7","AQJ875","KJ6" 3Nt "A53","Q5","AT743","A63" double "932","Q6","AKQJ3","AJ8" double "K54","Q4","AKJ932","76" pass "Q762","J","AK876","AK3" double This was a fairly easy set. ------------------------------------------ "AKT","86","AKQJ32","J7" double "AKQ5","4","KJ432","QT9" double "AT72","","AT9754","AJ9" double KQ86","","A8754","K872" double "AK2","82","KJ754","QJ8" double "A32","A","AKJ97","QT42" double "8542","A6","KQT74","A3" pass "AKQ9","3","KQT543","Q6" double "J3","6","AQT874","AQ53" double "KQ73","Q","AJ642","K92" double "KQ6","J9","AKQ965","Q9" double "K92","J86","AK865","KQ" pass "Q97","QJ62","AQ753","A" pass "AJ65","K6","QJT65","K8" double "AKT54","QJ","QT743","4" 3S "Q2","J","AJ832","AKQ82" double "A","7","J9653","AKJ642" 4Nt (minors) "AQJ4","9","AQJ97","AQ4" double "AKQ7","864","AQJ85","T" pass "A875","9","KQJ96","AQ3" double "KQ3","","AKQJT2","AJ42" X "KQJT7","7","AK764","T3 4H "Q854","K","AQT84","Q83 X "J","K4","AKJ864","Q764" pass "K95","A","AQ643","T832" X pass is ok too "J863","7","AKT65","A94" X "J8","3","KQ864","AJ963" pass "AJ95","A5","AT7432","K" X "JT6","3","AJ9543","KQ8" pass "QT74","K","AKJ982","A4" X another easy set.

Yep you are right the fact that you have 3S is a too big drawback. AKxxxx of spades will be enough to produce game.

Ive shuffle 150 hands where south has 6-8 hearts 4-10 pts (without 5S). West had at least 5D and 10 pts. Each hand where south wasnt close of a 3H bid or that west wasnt able to take action or had a no-brainer bid that would lead to the same result if you play NLM or not were discarded. Since West had at least 5D no 6-5 and curiously no 8 carder qualified for the condition. Many hands i wouldnt have bid 3H but felt they were close enough. Ive assumed no light opening bids. J974","AKJT742","4","4", KQ93","KT76532","2","Q" AK6","QJT754","9","642 975","AJ9854","","KQ83" So opening 1 with these isnt possible. Is 3H a reasonnable alternative ? I really dont like passing with those so that why i think 3H is not so bad. 942","AQT742","9","A94 with this one opening 1 is ok.

Either 3D followed by 4D (if natural). Or if i play 5NT PAS im pretty sure i can bid a direct 4Nt. Over 4Nt i expect partner to bid 5Nt (PAS) if he think 6D or 6H is still in the picture. I think 4Nt should suggest 4522 but im 100% sure about that.

I can live with both opening 2Nt or 1C---2nt. After 2Nt i wouldnt make a slam try because i have 0 keycard. We are missing 4A , 2 black kings + Q of clubs if partner got a perfecto slam is at best 75%

Wich hands would you discard as a 3H preempt Wvs W 1st seat Imps standard agressive opening bids Are these hand weak 3H ? "J974","AKJT742","4","4", "86","QT98765","AT","87" KQ93","KT76532","2","Q", "953","AK9872","3","QT6" "985","AJT975","983","A" K","KQJT762","52","J76" "9","KQJ974","J8","T962" "7","QT97543","K6","K98" "J64","JT98543","KT","5" "4","AQ7653","T2","K832" "J7","QT95432","Q","732" "2","AKT7543","98","J74" "942","AQT742","9","A94" "Q76","AKT863","J","T92" "7","KQT6543","KT","964" "K97","AJ98432","87","Q" "K","AQJT83","T8","8765" "T84","KJT972","","A653" "62","KQT8642","42","64" "975","AJ9854","","KQ83" "Void","Q986532","93","A742" "AK6","QJT754","9","642" "87","QJT9853","75","A3" "J","KQJ9854","82","K75" "75","KQJ643","3","KT85" "T","AKJ764","753","Q42" "VOID","KJT8643","86","Q765" "953","AKJT87","6","943" "J5","AT98643","7","K62"

Wvs W 1st seat Imps standard agressive opening bids Are these hand weak 3H ? "J974","AKJT742","4","4", "86","QT98765","AT","87" KQ93","KT76532","2","Q", "953","AK9872","3","QT6" "985","AJT975","983","A" K","KQJT762","52","J76" "9","KQJ974","J8","T962" "7","QT97543","K6","K98" "J64","JT98543","KT","5" "4","AQ7653","T2","K832" "J7","QT95432","Q","732" "2","AKT7543","98","J74" "942","AQT742","9","A94" "Q76","AKT863","J","T92" "7","KQT6543","KT","964" "K97","AJ98432","87","Q" "K","AQJT83","T8","8765" "T84","KJT972","","A653" "62","KQT8642","42","64" "975","AJ9854","","KQ83" "void","Q986532","93","A742" "AK6","QJT754","9","642" "87","QJT9853","75","A3" "J","KQJ9854","82","K75" "75","KQJ643","3","KT85" "T","AKJ764","753","Q42" "void","KJT8643","86","Q765" "953","AKJT87","6","943" "J5","AT98643","7","K62"

I think the X is a terrible overbid. passing the X is clear cut

wtp X

Optionnal. I expect partner to pass 85-90% of the times.

I want to do a sim for W vs W imps (3H)------??? 1st setup X can be done with a void 3S,3Nt,4C,4D,4S,5C,5D nat 4H =S+m 4Nt =both m 2nd setup X rarely with a void (unless 5440) where you dont want to treat it as m+M 3S,3Nt,4S,5C,5D nat 4C= C+S 4D = D +S 4H = both m+ S tol or long m+S tol or good 5m bid. a spade tol is xxx or Qx 4Nt = both m (after the 4H cue responses are 4S i like S 4Nt i prefer D 5C i prefer C 5D slammish POC) 3rd setup X semi penality 3S, 3nt nat 4C take-out GF or C + S 4D D+S 4H both m+ S tol or long m+S tol or good 5m bid.m + S tol or both m 4S nat 4Nt both m The condition for the preempt are 6 card suit acceptable with 6HCP in the suit. 7 card suit are 3-10 pts. LHO of preempter has 10+ hcp and at least 5 cards in a minor. Ill make several hundred of hands (using DM Pro) and send it to those who are willing to participate checking the hands. send me a private message if you want to participate.

You are rather naive thinking i didnt take partner input into account. Lets say that before my partner is making a decision (without partner input) the number of tricks im expecting is something like ... to make 6 = 5% To make 5 =25% To make 4 =49% (70% making of when you are in 4) -1 or worse (in 4)= (21% going down in 4) With these number bidding a natural 4C (and waiting for partner response) instead of taking a gamble at 3Nt or 5C will give you little profits EVEN TAKING PARTNER INPUT INTO ACCOUNT. The hands where 6 or 5 is making will have little difference except for more guessing when reaching 6. (3H)----4m----(P)-----cue ...etc (3H)----5m*---(P)-----tough spot. *can be streched The 21% hand where 4C is going down being in 5C will only cost undertricks and 3Nt is maybe less likely to be X then 4m. Then i guess you dont bid 5C or 4C with the same hand then I because I rarely get doubled in these situations. So where the profits are is when we are making exactly 10 tricks in clubs and 3Nt is going down and when partner make the correct decision bidding 5 when 5 is making and passing 4 when 5 isnt there. We all know that some of the hand partner will pass 4 and 5 is making & bid 5 when 4 is the limit. Add to that some of the hands where 3Nt is making and 4C going down and at the end you will get little profits. What we need to compare is the amount of expected imps (or mp) a NLM empty space will give you VS the profits (IMHO small) the availability of a nat 4m bid will give you.

Its amazing how people draw conclusion with extrapolation instead of just reading the post. In MP ok but in IMPs if 30% to make game vs 70% to make a partscore i want to be in game.Ive never said or imply that if ive got a hand that i feel is going to produce game 30% i would prefer to bid 5m then a natural 4m. Just to make sure that my point is clear. Talking about 2 hands that are not showned and saying that game as only 30% chance of success vs 70% for the partscore appear to be a rather weak argument if we are in IMPS.

In MP ok but in IMPs if 30% to make game vs 70% to make a partscore i want to be in game. With this i agree. With this i disagree 100% You can use the 4H to show both m with S tolerance or a single minor with S tol or a slammish single m. With 3361 facing 5??? i will play 4S you will play 4m. Partner rate to have a weakish 6 or 5 carder much more often then having a suit solid enough to bid 4 all by himself. If you bid 4m do you think partner will bid 4S with jxxxxx ? As for being X in 5m i dont remeber last time it happened to me. The problem is that over a 3H preempt space is scarce. Playing that both 4m bids arent forcing is aiming at a too narrow target. Often making a offshape X will do the job. (3H)----X-----(P)------3S (p)-----4m. (suggesting a 64 or looking for 3nt) With 23(63) shapes the X is preferable to 4m anyway. With (12)(64) shapes X is equal or slighty inferior to a 4m bid most of the time. With 33(61) bidding 4H (showing a m + S tol) is better then a direct 4m. With 13(63) i can live with 3Nt without a stopper or a heavy pass. For slam bidding its obvious that nlm is better (most of your bid are forcing). For avoiding to play 3Mx making nlm is clearly better no need to X with 5530 shapes etc. 6 card suit are not way more frequent then 5-5 after a 3 level preempt and once you remove all the 6 carder where you dont really want to bid 4m anyway 2 suiters become more frequent then single suiters. At MP i have no problem not playing NLM but at IMPS i consider NLM to have a a big edge over 4m natural. Both over 3S and 3H

1Nt at Mp is clear. At imps its a clear pass. I find the X risky but its probably an reasonnable gamble. Pulling the X is terrible and doesnt make any sense.

I mostly balance with 4441. I think balancing with then 4414 or 4144 is ok but with 1444 im sure its a mistake to balance. In direct seat only in MP and W.