Trumpace

I think I might have goofed trying to make the point clearer. I have edited the hand.

Really? This is just a made up problem based on a real deal on BBO. So, why not?

You are South in rubber bridge and reach 4NT. West leads the heart 2. You see: [hv=d=s&v=n&n=skqj97h93d853caq4&s=s42haqj4dakqc6532]133|200|Scoring: Rubber Lead heart 2.[/hv] You try the heart 9 from dummy and RHO plays the King. Plan the play.

Have you also considered how likely a club lead is from the various hands you give to West? In any case, this is too tough for me to calculate (or cross check your calculations), even away from the table. If someone has any ideas which suggest one line is clearly better than the other, please share.

I expected it to be worse than the finesse :P For a squeeze you need SK in the same hand as the one with long suit, which I presume would add up to < 50%, and smaller enough that the minor additional chances (like DJ9 tight, which I think you have an incorrect value) won't make it better than the finesse. Of course, I haven't tried doing all the calculations...

Sure I meant to say, against perfect defense, there is no extra chance from the squeeze. As you say the main point is to fork RHO, I was just focusing on the squeeze. Ok. Sorry, I misunderstood you.

Surely the spade finesse is inferior to the squeeze. A diamond to the Q, losing, and a spade comes back. You fly ace and play for the double simple squeeze. Assuming 4-1 hearts for calculation simplicity, SK with long hearts is 9/21, J9 of diamonds[ignoring unlikely Hx in unsqueezed hand] is 9/20*8/19. Combined we get +(9/21)+(12/21)*(9/20)*(8/19) = 53.7%, 5-0 hearts since this is closer than I expected gives +(8/21)+(13/21)*(8/20)*(7/19) = 47.2. Averaging the 2 gives about 52.6% since 4-1 is roughly 5:1 more likely than 5-0. Not much of a difference to an on-average 50% spade finesse, but it is certainly wrong to say leading to the DQ is clearly wrong since they might return a spade. Playing to the DQ also allows the possibility of playing for the strip squeeze in spades/diamonds if West has the short hearts if it looks right instead of finessing spades though it might be hard to judge the diamond count depending on how estute the defenders are. Can you please state a complete line of play so we have some context? Also, you seem to be getting J9 diamonds to be ~19% which seems quite a bit. In any case, if your calculations are correct, I would be surprised, but still would take the line stated earlier. As PhantomSac pointed out it would be quite difficult for LHO to duck the A etc. Also, from the lead, the club length is probably with LHO than with RHO.

PhantomSac, yes if DK is ducked, there might be no squeeze, but that does not mean there is no gain. By preventing a spade shift from RHO, you can test hearts before falling back on the spade finesse. If you just play a D to Q, and RHO shifts to a spade, you have to commit then and there. Most likely you will go up with the SA and bank on hearts to break. So this loses to the cases when hearts don't split and RHO has the SK. The squeeze is just another additional chance. Also, if LHO/RHO duck the DA, you have other options which might open up (like an endplay for instance).

only remember to cash the clubs first ... otherwise W might win the diamond and play a heart back so you cannot reach your ending anymore. Isn't DQ an entry to dummy then?

There is one more point to this hand (not for overtricks, but to make).

This is similar to one of Kelsey's hand and one posted by bid_em_up a few years ago. You are in 5D and LHO leads the S5. You see: [hv=d=s&v=n&n=saq3hq752d653cq72&s=s642hakdakqj98ck3]133|200|Scoring: Rubber Lead S5.[/hv] Plan the play.

Good hand! I think this is hard for intermediates to find at the table. The line I would take:

Perhaps an easier one this time. You are South in 6H and west leads a club. You see: [hv=d=n&v=n&n=sakjt3haqjdaj2ca5&s=s62hk6542dkt843c3]133|200|Scoring: Rubber Lead low ♣[/hv] YOu win the lead with CA and play AQ of trumps and RHO throws a club on the second trump. Plan the play.

This hand is from a book by Frank Stewart. I don't remember the title, sorry. You are west, and hold Ax, JT9xx, AKxx, Jx and open 1H. LHO doubles, partner bids 4H showing a weak hand with 5 hearts. RHO bids 4S and bidding ends there. You decide to lead the DA (your agreement) and partner plays low showing odd number of cards, while declarer follows. [hv=d=w&n=sktxxhxdqjtxcakxx&w=saxhjt9xxdakxxcjx]266|200|Scoring: Rubber You lead ♦A, partner shows odd number of cards and declarer follows.[/hv] What is your plan?

This looks like the best play, but it is hard to be sure. Sorry if this hand was too complicated...

You are South and reach 4H (opps silent). Lead is SK. [hv=d=s&v=n&n=saxhaxdakjtxxcjxx&s=sj9xxhqjxxxxdqxca]133|200|Scoring: Rubber Lead SK.[/hv] Plan the play.

SA, S ruff, minor, S ruff, other minor. Easy.

Why? Partner will know you had a clear problem on this hand and chose the option which you thought best. Why would that peg you as a 'mushy' doubler?

Well, if you presume that LHO plays randomly from KQ, then a kind of restricted choice argument favours RHO to be holding the SQ. So even in that case, assuming you can rely on the bidding inference, it still makes sense to play LHO for the DQ. Things like playing Q from KQ in third hand are basic, and either only very good players (and only for a good reason) or very bad players will deviate from it. (As always there are exceptions, though).

What did you have in mind? Pretty sure I was thinking ruff a spade, cash a trump, and exit with a high club. hope east only had 1 trump, and was forced to give either give us a club ruff, club discard, or lead away from Q♦ From the lead and play to the spade trick, it looks like RHO has the SQ and the AKJ of clubs. Given that he passed as dealer, LHO must have the DQ.

What did you have in mind?

This is hand # 67 from the book "Masterpieces of Declarer Play" by Julian Pottage. You are South, holding J, AQJTxx, Jx, xxxx. East is dealer and passes to you. You open 2H, pass by West, 4H by partner and all pass. LHO leads ♣9 (they lead low from xxx) and you see: [hv=d=e&v=b&n=sathkxdakxxxxcqxx&s=sjhaqjtxxdjxcxxxx]133|200|Scoring: Rubber lead C9.[/hv] RHO overtakes with T and shifts to low spade, LHO playing the K as you win the A. Plan the play.

At least it is not worse than mocking forum posters :blink: I'd actually disagree...at least on the forums the mocked party has the ability to return fire. Disagree with your disagreement. On the forums, the person being mocked has a high chance of actually reading that post. If this RHO is offended by reading this thread, he/she is free to respond. I was always told that its wrong to talk about people behind their back... Then again, I was also told that it was wrong to say that someone had their head stuck up their ass, so what do I know Don't care. Not interested.

Or have LHO pass RHO's 4♣ bid.

At least it is not worse than mocking forum posters :blink: I'd actually disagree...at least on the forums the mocked party has the ability to return fire. Disagree with your disagreement. On the forums, the person being mocked has a high chance of actually reading that post. If this RHO is offended by reading this thread, he/she is free to respond.