Trumpace

You hold AQ, J9xxx, Qxx, AQx. It is IMPS and no one vul. RHO is dealer and opens 1♥. You overcall 1NT. LHO passes, pd bids 2H (transfer to spades), RHO passes, you bid 2S and LHO doubles. Three passes. LHO leads the ♥A and shifts to club. [hv=d=e&v=n&n=skj9876ht2d543cj3&s=saqhj9754dq76caq4]133|200|Scoring: IMP[/hv] On club shift you play low, low from RHO and you win the Q. When you cash the ♠A, as expected, RHO shows out. What now? This hand is for beg/int only. Adv/+ please hide if you decide to respond.

Belated happy birthday :) May all your finesses work!

And they play low? Hmmm. If I play another trump, and they split 2-2, no problem. If I win it on the board, and play the jack of clubs...still risky. If I play a low heart, they can win, cash the ace of spades, and exit with a heart, and again I need spades 2-2 to make it. Boy, I'm having a hard time finding a way to make it trumps split 3-1. Yes, low trumps. I was thinking what if instead of a ruffing finesse of the club on trick 3, we ruff a low club high and then duck a heart...

Please also mention what you would do if LHO wins the ♣K and returns a trump.

Is the standard lead from xxx the lowest?

[hv=v=n&n=sakjt96hj873d52c3&s=sq5432hk2daktcakq]133|200|Scoring: Rubber[/hv] You are South in a 6S contract, after East had overcalled hearts at some point. West leads the heart 4 (and East plays A) (East/West are playing standard leads.) Plan the play. Adv/+ please hide your answers.

The opps bid spades... Yes.. I thought the auction (and your hand) called for a "passive" lead. Isn't a spade safer than a diamond? It is more likely that pard's honour(s) is in diamonds than spades, no? And if you have xxx spades, and given jump to 6NT, it seems like pard will have no spade honours... If pards honour is in hearts, then diamond is safer, yes. Basically, a diamond does not look like 100% to me... Sorry, if these questions are too dumb.

Agree with the restricted choice argument. My main reason for asking was, if it is the case that a spade lead implies 100% DK with LHO, then from small spades and small diamonds (not counting Jxx diamonds), a diamond must be the obvious (100%) lead. The question was why is that the case? Am i missing something basic there?

What did dummy play?

Tricky! I tend to agree with Hatchett. Given partner's diamond discard and the spade 7 (would he not play a higher one if he had 4 carder? Some ppl play 2nd best in these cases sometimes though, say from 97xx), seems that we need to play declarer for a 5 carder spade suit. But, with Axxxx, Qxx, AQx, xx would declarer open 1NT? Even if bidding goes 1S - 2C he has an easy 2NT rebid. Why would he open 1NT instead of 1S then? Is 1NT a better bid than 1S here? (Sorry if the question is too dumb).

lol :) where did you get this figure from? btw, are you right handed?

Agreed, overcall does not promise DK (not sure why it is more of an indication of the contrary though...) Also is spade lead really = 100% DK? With LHO holding small diamonds, and small spades, why is diamond a better lead than spade? Isn't spade a "reasonably" passive lead?

Assuming LHO holds ♦K for overcall... Cash AKQJ of hearts, discarding diamonds. Now over to dummy using SQ and cash spades. discarding 2 hearts a club and then the heart 9 depending on RHO's discard. coming down to _ _ xx 8 _ _ AQ K Read end position, either exit with club or diamond to A dropping K.

Your RHO bid diamonds, voluntarily, FOUR times up to 5D at equal vul. And you think the ace may blow a trick in that suit ??? Do you really think RHO's bids are reliable? We all know RHO's bids can't be reliable. But there can be no doubt he loves his diamonds. :lol: lol B) Maybe, but it could be length rather than strength (who knows B) ) . More importantly, likely reason for RHO's bids is that he is short in our suit, so I see no need to cut down spade ruffs. Who knows, LHO's void suit might be trumps... In case, any lead seems like a blind shot, as the bidding is totally unreliable. The argument of Axxx opp void is valid, but not enough to sway the decision towards a diamond lead (for me).

I disagree, at least in part. If you mean that, at imps, playing safe for the contract, I agree (within reason.. there are times it is correct to risk a contract, especially a partscore, for an overtrick or two). But sometimes you are in a terrible contract and, if undoubled, it is often best to assume the optimistic approach that the cards lie well for you. And at mps, in a big field, unless you are having a tremendous session, it is often useful to take chances in order to maximize your matchpoints... if you need a few good boards, for example. But, on the whole, I agree: I see a lot of players who attack declarer play, at any form of scoring, as if the object were to win the most tricks possible... and that is a losing approach. If you are in a terrible contract, say a 30% vul (spade) game and say you can try making the contract at the risk of down 2 or you can take a 100% line for down 1. If you play to make the contract, your expected score is 620*0.3 - 200*0.7 > 0 The odds favour playing to make the contract. Try to make the game is going with the odds. Of course, the calculation of the odds varies with the scoring and state of the match comes into play etc, but the point is, it is not optimism to try and make the contract in the above case, it is realism (after all, you are going with the odds). Optimism would be to try and risk down 3 doubled in order to make a 5% game.

Your RHO bid diamonds, voluntarily, FOUR times up to 5D at equal vul. And you think the ace may blow a trick in that suit ??? Do you really think RHO's bids are reliable?

If I read you correctly optimists/aggressive players bid/play against the mathematically calculable odds.I fully agree. Then how can optimism/aggression be profitable? There is the assumption here that we are in an ideal world i.e. defenders defend perfectly etc. So even though the odds of making a game might be 40%, you actually make the game more than 40% time. Also, (I think) most of the events are not long enough for the "against the odds" to manifest (if you are not overly optimist), even in an ideal world. An optimist, if he goes plus, will likely have a bigger plus than the pessimist or even the realist. People seem to be considering only optimism as being only during the bidding (I call that aggression, not optimism). Optimism during the playing of the cards is definitely a losing choice.

By "optimistic" do you mean "aggresive" ? I think, by definition, an optimist believes his luck is good.

You have to go below 40% to be considered optimistic...

Thanks for the analysis awm and echognome.. There are three lines, each of which might be right depending on the chances LHO holds Q... and that too in just a 4 card ending! Add in the chances of A, and things get too complicated :)

Result merchant :P btw, would anyone open 1S with the hand given :) ?

What is the question?

What is wrong with passing in 1st seat? Values are too scattered. I would not open this. is NMF forcing to game or just one round? In the case of latter, passing 2NT seems right.

I would play on dummy reversal lines, try and establish clubs. So ruff, and run the ♣9. If the 9 wins, I might switch to cross-ruff lines.

I would define pessimist as one who thinks that the odds in his favour are not as high as they actually are. The optimist thinks that the odds in his favour are higher than they actually are. If say, playing rubber bridge with a limited bankroll, both will become bankrupt eventually, but my guess is that the optimist will get to zero before the pessimist does.