Trumpace

Ok. Say x were the chances lefty holds Club Q (not club A as originally stated). (I have also modified the original problem statement)

Ralph will probably like this question :P [hv=n=sh2dck72&s=sh3dcj83]133|200|[/hv] In the above end position, you need 2 of the last 4 tricks. hearts are trumps and opps are out of spades and hearts. 7 clubs are still out and you have no clue as to the distribution. You are currently in the South hand. [edited] Suppose the chances that LHO holds the Club Q is x. (not this was about club A first, but i changed the problem based on awm and echognome's comments) [/edited] Is there some value(s) of x which will cause you to switch your line of play? (i.e if x > y then you take line 1, else you take line 2 etc (or something similar)) What will be your line(s) of play? (Sorry if the question does not make sense :P , I can later try to clarify what I am getting at)

Playing IMPS: [hv=d=e&v=n&n=sakq7ha82dj93caj9&s=s53h3dkqt7542c743]133|200|Scoring: IMP[/hv] East is dealer, you are south. Bidding goes (opps passing) 3D - 4NT 5C (vanilla) - 6D LHO leads ♥J. What is the best play? (trumps turn out to be 2-1, if you need to know that info)

The reason I posted this was that there were a couple of comments (one from the dummy) saying that the play was very good. Sorry I don't know anything about the leads etc of the opposition if you want to know that. All four players were experts and I am pretty sure dummy and declarer's LHO are experts (i.e I don't think declarer is a loser).

I was kibbing this table when this hand came up. http://online.bridgebase.com/myhands/fetch...ayed=1186410446 Can someone please explain declarer's line?

:)

Surely, you jest. Among many other things, he was a favorite partner of Sam Stayman. http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html...752C0A963958260 I guess he is not very well known outside the USA. I was only half-jesting, I didn't know him since he died long before I started playing bridge seriously, but then googled him. Anyway, there are many other players with a similar record and saying "xyz is reported to have said never do zyx" is an extremely bad way to try to win an argument anway. Esp. here where (as jlall pointed out) it doesn't matter at all whether he is right the only thing that matters is whether LHO agrees with him. Yes, I agree with you. These kind of arguments tend to get very annoying, especially regarding play problems. Also, in this case, Vic Mitchell is just _one_ of the world class bridge players. If we really want to have arguments like these, we should at least have a good sample space of experts to pick from... Anyway, I don't think we really have seen any completely convincing argument showing that the lead from Qxxx is way better than leading from Axxx. It is likely true, and some of the arguments make sense, but they are not really compelling. Perhaps a few suit "representative" (representative: so that this is not just another proof by example) suit layouts and the corresponding comparision between the leads would have been more convincing (not that I am asking you to do this).

This thread is too long. It is daunting just to check and see if a bug has been reported before. Anyway, in the newer version of BBOtv, where you can login with your id and play at a table, there seems to be a bug in the claim feature. I was declarer and I claimed. It got rejected. Now I could see the opponents hands...

How did you get this Frances? When I check it I also got 57%, but I thought it was a lot of work, using Pavlicek's dual calculator and then adding the percentages and even dividing them. Did you use a clever trick? Let me venture a guess: LHO has at 1 heart and 1 spade (11 vacant spaces). Rho has 4 hearts and 1 spade (8 vacant spaces). So, chances that LHO holds a specific card is 11/19 = (11/(11+8)) First of all, there are 6 hearts out there, not 5. Secondly, Frances said 4+, not 4. I never said there were only 5 hearts. The information we know is: LHO has a heart. RHO has 4 or more (assumed). Spades split 1-1. So, LHO has 11 vacant spaces and RHO has 8. Chances that LHO holds the 6th heart is ~57% (assuming he is capable of leading singleton J etc), same as the chances that he has the CK, same as the chances that he has DK etc. This, is assuming LHO will lead a card at random from his 13 cards i.e we assume that the lead was a heart gives us no other information except the fact that LHO has at least one heart.

Why is it obviously wrong? What was the bidding? What was the opening leader's hand?

I have heard experts around me say this: Highest of touching in 2nd. Lowest of touching in 3rd.

How did you get this Frances? When I check it I also got 57%, but I thought it was a lot of work, using Pavlicek's dual calculator and then adding the percentages and even dividing them. Did you use a clever trick? Let me venture a guess: LHO has at 1 heart and 1 spade (11 vacant spaces). Rho has 4 hearts and 1 spade (8 vacant spaces). So, chances that LHO holds a specific card is 11/19 = (11/(11+8))

Hey! Wait a minute. Why are we discussing only Axxx vs Qxxx ? In the original problem, LHO could have led from a 5 card suit, Axxxx. Right? Does that change anything? If not, why not?

Is Shubi a he or a she?

oops. hehe. I have edited the post.

In the book: Opening Leads in Bridge, by Tony Sowter The author gives this example: [hv=s=saq65hqt65d9754c6]133|100|Scoring: IMP[/hv] Out of the three possible 4 cards suits to lead, he recommends leading a heart. (Contract is 3NT. 1NT - 3NT is the bidding sequence.) Sorry if it is irrelevant to the thread.

Hi jdaming. Welcome! About your play problem, I have no idea, i would probably just play for DQ onside and SJ onside in case of 4-2 split. Hope the experts here will come up with something.

Tough to calculate odds. I think I will play as follows: [] []

I never said they have no method to show a void. It is just that I don't know about it, and didn't bother to ask them (lol :P inspite of them being figments of my imagination).

In the actual situation where declarer finessed... If LHO led the correct count card (what Jlall was talking about), Since RHO holds Q2 exactly, the situation is pretty clear to declarer once the Q appears on the first trick. Why should he even consider the false card? This assumes both LHO and RHO are false carding on the first trick!

Excellent! That was the intent of this problem. I hope people are convinced :P

No, I am not telling you the responders hand. All I am saying is the 4♥ promises an exact singleton (that is _the_ agreement). Perhaps they have other methods of showing a void. Who knows? Anyway...

Yes. Exact singleton. So what do you bid as responder with a void? You can't make the double jump shift as that claims a singleton. We play splinters show either 1 or zero. I don't know... ask the opps :D Look, I tried to make this problem up to get across a nice lead problem. So, please go ahead and assume that is the case. Sorry if the bidding is totally confusing/not completely logical. If someone gets the point I am trying to get across and remembers the actual hand from Omar Sharif's book, please post it here.

What about a double of the 4♥ bid? Pard does not know they are going to be in slam. He might as well get his ♥A before the singleton goes away on some suit of declarer's. Is that reasonable?

Yes. Exact singleton.