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gszes

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Everything posted by gszes

  1. x there is no way p is leaving this x in for penalty so we will most likely get a chance to show our heart suit w/o promising too much in the way of power. There will be no way to make p shut up if they have a heart fit and a decent hand if we begin with either 3 or 4 hearts. It might seem like pass is great here but IHMO p will almost never reopen with x and there is wayyyyyyyy too much chance we have an easy heart game if p cannot reopen. At MP I might consider p since it is only 1 board and gambling p can reopen with x might deliver a great MP score when we pass but it is too risky at IMPS.
  2. If I had a holding in hearts like KQT I would not hesitate to pass but here the AK work well opposite almost any holding p might have. There are far too many instances where p has a 5/6 card minor and a fair hand but has to pass due to suit quality. Whatever p needs we have. It can indeed be wrong but will almost never be spectacularly wrong. Game is certainly not out of the question though it looks sort of far off. I can almost understand a pass at MP but at imps it seems almost criminal. X marks the spot
  3. I would like to lead toward the club 89 but I need a couple of dummy entries to accomplish this w/o weakening my overall position so who knows where this is going but at trick 2 I will lead a heart to the ten and see what happens.
  4. SORRY for this but the FIRST consideration should be the opps bidding. Is there ANY clue that might help decipher if one declarer is more or less likely to hold four hearts?. I had to get that our of the way. Second we should use before deciding on trying restricted choice. Does your hand plus the, so far useless, bidding indicate we have the time and partner and we have the entries to delay making this choice. It is important to note just how far down the line restricted choice can become as a serious contender for decision making. The overall odds of p having a singleton are significantly smaller than p starting with 3 hearts. The difference is so huge that restricted choice is a virtual non factor even with this highly limited set of conditions.
  5. making ANY bid w/o a complete understanding of what the follow ups mean is hazardous duty so take this guess of bidding 2D as merely my humble opinion since I assuming the bids that follow are logical rather than merely systemic (much like the original 2c bid). The reason I like the 2d bid is that it allows for slam exploration at a VERY low level. Some bids are just plain wrong for this monster 2h 2s 2n 3d 3h 3n all send the completely wrong message so we eliminate those right away. The splinters all suffer from the same problem the ace askers have. There is just plain not enough information to justify using those bids at this time. Lets go SLOW and see if we can get any useful information from p along the way. A bid of 3c has the benefit showing p distribution but suffers from making p downgrade the usefulness of the dia Q. This is a small flaw but if I get into a cue bidding sequence later I would be happy to hear about that dia Q. I consider the splinters and ace asking bids so poor I would much rather opener merely rebid 4h and I think bidding 4h is worth about a 4 so imagine what my rating is of the splinters and ace asking bids. What can go wrong after a 2D bid that anyone feels the need to go rushing about to judgement in some way shape or form. Partner is looking at their cards so why not try and get them involved in the investigative process. We might find out all kinds of interesting information is p min or max (there is a KING difference in the range and that is huge). We can also find out if p has "stuff" in spades (almost always bad news) while still below game level. Take it easy and don't be in such a hurry to rush to judgement.
  6. IMHO, at MP, before embarking on a "take all feasible tricks" LOP try to calculate the odds of success. If they come in at less than 50% there is a good chance it is not such a great idea. Going for 13 tricks here need 32 dia and 32 trumps so it clocks in at roughly 46%. Seems like a bad idea at MP. How about trying for 11/12 tricks? Win dia A and exit with a club. This play virtually assures your contract and still leaves you with many ways to score at least 11 tricks (including ducking the second round of dia maybe) depending on how the defense goes. Seems like a much more sensible way to go for overtricks. I know the hand is already revealed but the concept makes sense anyway and surely the dia J lead increases the odds significantly that dia do not break 32 lowering that 46% quite a bit.
  7. there are so many bad things that can happen if we bid 2s it is scary. 1. how do we ever shut partner up if they have a great hand. 2. we might end up missing a great heart fit to play an iffy spade fit. 3. do we really want to encourage a spade lead if the opps get to 3n? 4. not vulnerable does not mean invulnerable. it is not just the above but honestly if lho makes preemptive noise how high would u be willing to bid if partner passes? I would back in with 3/4 spades over 3/4 diamonds and never have a worry about partner going insane because they expect me to "have something". P is there to help protect us so let them do their job and not take actions merely because the pass card looks worn and disease covered. The range of a 2s bid becomes so huge, if you bid now with hands like this, that there is no sanity left and a tiny preempt completely maesses with your partnership bidding.
  8. I have no heartache with the bidding until S bid 2s. Once n backs in with x S cannot keep showing a broke hand. Yes indeed once in a while you will get overboard with 3s but far more often it will be the right spot or even game will make. If you wanted to be conservative at MP I could understand sort of but at IMPS sheesh lets see a bit more aggression here by south or north will go nuts with overbidding to compensate.
  9. ruff high ruffing with the 8 or 9 seems to cater to one holding and that is lho holding JTxx of spades AND that assumes rho no heart A since we would have an uppercut situation anyway. Any 33 or any 42 split where rho began with J7 or T7 still allows us to make even if rho does indeed have the heart ace because there is no uppercut. This does not even include all of the reasonable 42 splits where rho has the long spades. I am curious did we auto cover the club J or did we duck and rho won the K anyway?
  10. Hopefully that 2s bid meant more than just heart support but also a willingness to raise to at least 3h if that was your suit. P has some stuff so what seems best? If rho had something like QJxx they very easily might have chosen to x 2s rather then pass. I will go with a small spade. Yes it can be a complete failure if p has a singleton but it is at worst a break even if p has a doubleton and maybe a killer if p has a doubleton (lho began with a singleton spade honor or spades split 322*). Any other lead is just guess work and hoping rho started with QJ of spades and p can lead spades TWICE so we can take advantage of that position. * could it be the sublime position where p has Qx of spades and rho bid 3n with J9xx nahhhhhhhhhh but who knows I have seen worse 3n bids than that.
  11. While I vastly prefer 3n* to 5d (almost as preemptive and usually far easier to make) you should congratulate yourself on taking what appears to be your best shot at making 5d. The alternative squeeze hoping against hope east cannot or does not figure out how to pitch effectively is such a low % as to be not worth mentioning. If lho had started with a higher spade (increasing the odds of it being from a doubleton then I think the squeeze becomes more palatable but here it seems like the best for three reasons. 1. The opening lead could easily be from Jxx (many pairs lead low from 3 small also). 2. The dia Q could drop singleton and even if lho wanted to ruff the 3rd spade dummy can overruff 3. Lho might have started with only 1 dia. Not a high degree of probability but still adding a few % points toward making. Do not concern yourself with always making a contract-- concern yourself with taking the best LOP. The best LOP will not always work but the development of that skill will go a long way toward making you a much feared opponent. keep up the good work. * there really is still far too much chance of game even opposite a passed partner. Not only is 3n usually far easier to make and requires far less from partner the only time it will seem wrong is if lho can x (which would mean partner is truly broke) and running to 4d (depending on vulnerability) might seem prudent under those circumstances.
  12. N should go ahead and bid 4s at IMPS (at MP pass since reaching game not so big a deal). N is around max for what p might expect but also has some extra plusses that make stretching for game worthwhile. 1. Relatively long diamonds increase the likelihood south is short in diamonds. 2. doubleton support is hardly wonderful but at least its a couple more spades the opps do not have. 3. Possible source of length tricks in hearts 4. club ace is a good game card and a possible entry to long hearts. Preempts work and I applaud the 3s bidder for having good discipline with this ho hum suit. Some have suggested a x here but there is a small chance we can really get overboard is N happens to have long clubs and we have to ruff diamonds with the KQ of clubs. Too much risk for too small a reward. I would rate pass as a better option than x.
  13. I do not have the energy to bash everything that was done poorly. The weak 2h bid and the pass of (2s by w read mr ace commentary)and n were about the only bids I liked. But the one bid that really start to gnaw at me is the x by south of the ridiculous 3h bid). What is south thinking about? Surely they are not xing merely to scrape out an extra 50 penalty (assuming the opps do not make) so they must be imagining 6 defensive tricks from somewhere but where? The bidding almost assuredly means west will have most of the remaining hcp and they were just stumped (or savvy enough to pass) over how to proceed over 2s. I am unconvinced 3h x should be considered universally a penalty x (I would play it as tox) but even if that is the case what should north do with their gross collection of nonsense? I mean just how much defense can a mere 2s bid have that will single handedly defeat 3h? I see these kinds of penalty x all the time where one player gets ticked off about how the bidding has gone and just x because they don't like how it went. Far too many of these poor x turn normal hands into multiple imp losses especially when the x puts a damper on what p would do w/o the poor x.
  14. IMHO I think the best plan is to assume rho has long diamonds and the club ace. The bidding would indeed be helpful since only an insane lho would lead a diamond with Qxxx when we have bid and raised diamonds. SO I would win trick 1 run all but 1 spade then play hearts ending in dummy the final 4 cards are !D Jx !C KQ opposite !S2 !Daxx what 4 cards can rho hold onto? if they hold only 2!c and 2!D we yield a dia trick and take the rest while if they hold the stiff !CA and 3 dia we lead the club K and they have to lead away from the Q at trick 12. This lop requires a very plausible rho holding of 3343 or less hearts and more clubs. As Kaitlyn s points out a singleton dia lead is a ton more consistent with an aceless hand
  15. You got what you deserved for not calling the director immediately:)))))))))))))))))) I am on your side I hate playerws with lack of ethics but even a dozing partner will wake up to a director call:)))) HNY
  16. Not interesting totally normal contract taking totally normal play to make.
  17. No special way to handle the situation. You are doing a good job and setting a good example to try and clear up possible future bidding problems. Keep up the good work :)
  18. Lets see a show of hands --- How many here have any clue where this bidding is going? That question alone might send you in the right direction. x This is by far the most flexible bid allowing for a wide range of contracts/sacrifices/penalties. W/o the aces (a logical fear of having my x converted to penalty) a 2h bid might seem like a better choice due to the lack of quick tricks but here we have little/nothing to fear from playing any number of spades x (if p feels it is right) and the only FEAR is possibly missing a 53 heart fit (ok maybe a 52 heart fit also) but that is such a teeny tiny target compared to all that is out there.
  19. there we go make sure you keeping offering this type of "help" to those trying to learn
  20. Agree almost completely it is just plain IMPOSSIBLE for west to have 3 hearts and (not raise 1h to 2h and later bid 4d). That means the 4h bid (don't try to convince me 4h is not offering a place to play) shows a good enough heart suit to play opposite xx or a stiff honor. It is a no risk bid on the way to 5d to possibly the last makeable spot.
  21. Agree almost completely it is just plain IMPOSSIBLE for west to have 3 hearts and (not raise 1h to 2h and later bid 4d). That means the 4h bid (don't try to convince me 4h is not offering a place to play) shows a good enough heart suit to play opposite xx or a stiff honor. It is a no risk bid on the way to 5d to possibly the last makeable spot.
  22. ONCE in a while it will "work" when you bid here BUT realize it is an anti% action that will not sit well with most partner/teammates even when it works. Just too much risk vs possible reward.
  23. 3c for all the reason mentioned above PLUS if clubs break poorly they are to your RIGHT which makes a penalty x much more difficult for the opps. Risk vs reward.
  24. FWIW want to be in 3n but end up in 4n 2n 3c (normal stayman) 3d 4d 4h* 4s* 4n* pass *all bids following the principle of majors NT minors and assuming there was a REASON responder showed diamonds rather than emphasizing NT. The 4h bid shows something in hearts and a problem for nt elsewhere. 4s same thing but makes it obvious the problem is clubs and 4n means clubs well covered. Pass then settles level and strain with the wasted club values opposite singleton.
  25. 1s I have a rotten hand and there is ZERO reason to consider any other bid. This especially true when thoughts of 2c or 2d RAISE THE LEVEL for essentially zero reason. Bidding 1n all too easily can land you in 3n where a xx (to run) is unlikely to help any. Not all TOX will work but at least try to avoid unnecessary damage when you have a poor hand. 1s 10 1n 2 2c/d 1
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