gszes

gszes 23 vilgan 11

pass Not merely because p is likely to have 4+ clubs but because they are looking at their clubs and can tell much better than we can if they have weak or strong clubs. It should also be quite clear to partner that we are short in clubs and must be weak since we took no action. I think this leaves partner in excellent shape to make any further decisions:))))))))

still waiting for vilgan and zzzzisaac to approve match nige1 5-27 icycookie 15-36 artk78 11-27 mkgnao 32-16 wakcojack 17-42 barmar 32-6 elyk25 23-22 natali_ 21-50 zupey 30-7 oyoleo 16-13

pass no matter what the vul is. If we trust our p 3d bid then it seems almost impossible for anything other than 4s to make. The problem is it is almost impossible for p to have 3 spades good enough to make 4s a decent contract. I think looking for 3n or 5d are gigantic fishing expeditions. Preempts work and this time it appears to have hurt our chances of arriving at the best spot that's life. Who knows maybe just maybe lho will balance and we will be happy again.

2s gets the up arrow since it is the only bid that makes for a scary penalty x for the opps. 3c might easily be the best contract but bidding 3c carries significant extra risk since it is FAR easier to x a contract at the 3 lvl than the 2 lvl. Not enough stuff to consider a pass here as we can very easily be hanging partner if they balanced with a min. Passing with this type of hand is a sure way of making sure partner will not reopen as much in the future causing us to miss many lucrative legitimate penalty passes in the future. bidding 2h too scary for me since we may all too easily be convincing p we have some semblance of heart support even if weak 2s = 7 3c = 5 2h = 3/4 p = 2

Where will barmar announce it --- if here no need to reply i guess:))))))))))))))))))))))) I freely admit i would prefer this stuff to show up in the expert forum since so LITTLE else shows up here it is not a common read

If this is MP I can see some merits to taking the club finesse (I see almost zero positive benefits to taking the ruffing finesse which appears to break even at best). At IMPS we are in a very reasonable contract with no reason to assume bad splits so it seems Nige1 first instinct appears to be correct since we might very easily lose only 1 dia and 2 trumps under most circumstances and maybe even hold our trump losers to 1 w/o all the risk that comes with trying to guess clubs (including a possible club ruff or uppercut even when we guess right).

IMHO i think the point is quit worrying about very low % probabilities at MP especially when they will not set the contract anyway. MP is a game of overtricks and one rarely wins an event by being pessimistic (even though that is a very good IMP trait). trick 2 win club A and lead a spade toward the K and reevaluate. If trumps break 40 (no matter which opp has the 4 trumps it is safe to lead a club from dummy toward the A (if lho ruffs they are ruffing with a natural trump winner and rho cant ruff due to distribution). If both follow it is safe to lead another spade to the ace. If trumps break 22 no worries ruff a club and eventually give up a diamond. If trumps break 31 you make 5 no matter what happens when u lead the other top club next intending to ruff the 3rd club.

available

1. no 2. x 3. 2N 2 places to play cant be natural since any natural 2n hand would easily prefer to penalty x 4. 17 imps though realistically it should rarely be worse than 14 imps

yay found this by accident (in) umm just for grins what does it cost?

I would x here and quietly retire from the bidding if p bids a mere 2s. I do not think 2s will be our best spot but I am willing to make some small sacrifices that will allow me to better describe my strong hands. This means that if I x now and later correct 2s to 3d it shows extra values (much like a direct 3d bid would over 2h). The greater chance of game with the strong hands takes priority over correcting a part score.

MP the risk factor is ONE board not the entire match. That leaves many options on the table that might normally be ignored. Hard to let the opps play 2c at MP. I would overcall and then x over 2c with the intention of pulling a 2d bid by p 2h. This should allow them to picture your hand almost perfectly since you failed to use Michaels the first round. If rho bids 3c over (partner's inevitable) 2d I think pass is a reasonable choice given that we might already be better off than we were at 2c.

X marks the spot There is a VERY strong chance the auction is about to die out and partner may have a flawed hand to back in (think 4 hearts and xx in clubs as an example). The fact that lho is a passed hand increases the chance p has a reasonable holding. 2H is off mark and should be saved for hands that were unable to take action the first time around (K432 876432 Q Kx). Having 2 possible places to play greatly reduces the risk factor.

It takes so little from p to make vul game that opening 1 lvl bothers me. I would opt for since being a little bit overboard is no where near as scary as missing game. The great heart suit virtually guarantees no x which removes a lot of the downside of getting a bit too high. NVUL I would probably open 1H.

pass I admit I would have bid 2c vs 1h with this pretty much gross minimum with a tiny shot at game. P is probably near the minimum of a hand too strong to overcall 1s and with the total misfit it seems prudent to pass here before the opps start finding the x card. The fact that p did not try to x 1n for penalty reinforces the idea of getting out of bidding as quickly as possible and if p spades are not good enough let them lose the post mortem.

4NT It could be right to pass but the presence of TWO 5 card suits coupled with spade shortness surely means a fair portion of p defensive HCP are wasted. It seems right to bid here even w/o the strong expectation of making at the 5 level. The 4NT bid shows 2 places to play and that seems better than just picking the better heart suit as it gives us two possibly great landing spots vs one.

PASS If all p needed was a heart stop for 3N they had a 3H bid available (after we bid 2s). Is the probable double heart stop really enough to consider 3n? At IMPS maybe but at MP it seems like too small a target.

I am dense --- I do not see yet how bidding 2h helps solve your proposed problems. It still seems to be that bidding 2h would be far more likely to encourage partner to overbid than if we pass originally. I can see you are an optimist granting partner a singleton heart when you bid 2h (I always get a void sigh).

I am probably off base but the 2 LOP so far seem to be 1 trick short trick 1 win heart cheaply as possible trick 2 club ace (40 trump break ah well they haven't broken well for me this century) trick 3 spade A trick 4 ruff spade small trick 5 heart A trick 6 dia A trick 7 dia to K (this gets all top cards out of way in preparation for cross ruff) trick 8 ruff spade high trick 9 low club to 8 trick 10 ruff spade high trick 11 ruff dia trick 12 cash club J trick 13 surrender last trick to both opps OR if you hate lho that much trick 11 lead dia and pitch heart if lho fails to ruff and claim last 2 with J9 over Tx

i went with insane. What does the 2h bid accomplish here in direct seat opposite an unlimited p and lho? Surely your confidence in partner's PO seat abilities is not that low:))) And if perchance the bidding were to go 2d p 3d or 2d p 4d and p does not chip in what do you think a 3/4h balancing bid by you would mean?? You know p is short in diamonds yet could not bid over 3d or 4d surely they will not leave you in hearts (a suit u could not overcall at 2 lvl) w/o reasonable support. Odds of getting to the best strain increase dramatically if you pass now and back in later if needed. If p wants to x the opps surely they will be ummmm errr REALLY disappointed in what you bring to that contract. I did not even bother to mention the possibility of getting the x in hearts when we might easily have superior contracts in 3 other places and no way we will espcape (yeah yeah its only 1 board and its more FUN to bid).

Too many hcp located in the heart suit for x to be a good option since responder may decide to convert. 4c seems to fit the bill here for strong and long hearts with extras. Agree that direct 4h should be made on a mostly offensive hand Kx AQJT9876 KJ x i.e. something that resembles a namyats 4c opener. Switch the KJ and K to 2 aces and its 4c for me.

Arghhhh so MANY things to talk about I can't do it here. Short version, all those quacks make the 7 level such a tiny target as to be unreachable so this is primarily a choice btn the practical 3n and 5m (which might be safer). Showing both minors and the heart shortness will at least allow the partnership to avoid (and possibly bid a slam) 3N when it is a horrible contract. 3N is not horrible here but at least the partnership can bid a safer 5m. As long as the partnership has some method in place for stopping short of slam I think that's the easiest way to go.

8. spade Safe (partner has given away all the spade suit information already). Might even get us a ruff if p is not too afraid to continue the suit when they hold AQJ and Kxx hits the table. 4. DIA Q no where near as safe but it may start us on the right track defensively 2 almost anything else but a 1. club surely p does not have a void talk about giving away the show in a suit for zero practical reasons (actually 1 is kind of a high rating).

Having no good reason to assume ANYTHING will work, I will lead a spade (partner's suit). Which spade hmmm let's see if one of those xxx is the T/9/8 (in case lho has something like K32) I will try that (since it just might allow me to retain the lead) else I will make the conventional lead that gives count according to your system.