dellache

There is no need to compute exact percentages to see that the "diamond line" is better than the "heart line" : 1. The diamond line MAKES at least when Diamonds break 3-2, or East has the Diamond Queen. That's at least 68+1/2(32) = 84%. We don't count extra chances. 2. The heart line FAILS at least when East takes the Heart Trick and the Diamond Queen is off. That's at least 25%. That means the Heart line is LESS than 75%. Diamond line > 84% >> 75% > Heart line.

Remembering a recent question about the ego of bridge versus poker players, I came up with this idea of poll. Sorry in advance if you find it nuts, but I'm rather curious about the results.

What would be even more interesting is the following : East opens 4♠, and West's lead is still the same. Question : how many Clubs does West hold in average ? And what is the probability that West is lefthanded now ? I think that gives you excellent clues to solve your original problem especially when nothing like this really happens (unless it is full moon of course, in which case other rules will apply).

AKQx Qxx Qx AQxx facing Jxx xxxx xxx xxx, after a 1♦ showing 4+♦. I'm sort of happy with 1♠.

1. 3♠ 2. 2♣, too many HCP for 2♠, not enough Spades for 3♠ 3. 3♦

At these colours I'd pass.

At the table, I'd just take in hand, play Club to Queen, Diamond to Jack : 1. It holds. I claim 12/13 tricks depending on the ♦Split (if they don't split I'll give them a Heart). 2. West takes her Queen. I check Diamonds. If they split I claim. If East discards, I'll hope for a stiff ♥K :blink:. If West had the stiff ♦Q, I'll take the remote chance of a Red squeeze against East.

With xxx, xxxx, xxxxx, which card do they lead against slam ? Please do not answer 3rd/5th... (just kidding :blink: )

I was just looking at our 1920 agreements with pard, and had some doubts about the following one : (1m) X (PASS) 1♥ (PASS) What would 1♠ show now (and why?) : 1. 4+♠ NF, strongish game still possible facing 6-7 HCP. 2. The same, but 5+ Spades. If the latter, what do you bid with 4=3=x=x (or 42xx) and no suitable hand for NT ?

Ah. If you define what an interior sequence is on your CC, why not. Last day I had an "expert" pard on bbo who led the 6 from A6542 leading 4th best. He explained me that he had to lead an interior sequence. I was enlightened.

We obviously don't have the same definitions of 3rd/5th. Obviously it depends from the lattitude in Europe. Here in my village, 3rd/5th would mean the 8 can come only from 98xx or A98x (4 cards suit is 100%). With A987x or 876xx lead the smallest (the FIFTH !!) Huh ? Maybe I'm confused with 3rd filth. We lead 1st/3td/5th always except from 4 card holding where we want to protect important spot card for later use. A98x ha important spot cards for later use but A987x would lead 8 just in case that there is something to finesse from dummy. leading 2nd highest is never done. (unless psychic) [hv=n=sqx&w=st6&e=skjxx&s=sa987x]399|300|[/hv] This is not what we usually call 3rd/5th imo. See definition HERE. I've never seen somebody who leads A9(8)7x and claim it's 3rd/5th. Actually if I'm declarer, AND if 3rd/5th is mentioned on the CC, AND if I fail because of that, I would call the TD.

I don't know. I think the hand is worth an upgrade for 2NT, but I fear we may miss 6m, and the (my) system over 2NT sucks for that, when pard will obviously start by looking for some Major suit. Also, if pard bids 1NT/1♣ with ♥Qxx, he will receive the lead if we happen to play NT from his hand but it's actually a very minor concern. I don't care if pard bid 4♦ (5-5MM) over 2NT, BTW. So I may open 1♣ and reverse 2♦, or open 2NT. It will really depend on my mood. The only thing I wouldn't do is open 1♣ and rebid 2NT, that would be underbiding imo.

Honestly I saw nothing better than the obvious line which is to hope for ♥Jx and 4-3 Spades. I saw many ridiculous lines though, but none of them work better :P. Awaiting your solution with impatience. Regards,

I think this is a really difficult hand (at least for me) to play. The only thing that I would not do is ruff spades like you did, because the overruff is likely, and you cannot counter it (if you ruff High, the 4-1 clubs kills you). This would be a nice hand to play double dummy, but here, after you lose the ♣Ace, probably the defense may force you to guess too early, hence remove some of your options. Here intuitively, I would play the ♥J of course (Q underlead is not unlikely) and when it fails, I would immediately play a club. If South takes it, I doubt he can afford to play a Spade now, because it would be ridiculous if I have a Spade void. Let's say I'm in dummy now : I have my first decision to make. I don't fear the Spade overruf anymore now, so I would ruff a Spade, and play a second Club. It looks as if I can exert my spade and diamond option. But wait. They will of course see this and play the Ace of clubs immediately to remove my ♥King. Now instead I can try to benefit from a relatively short ♦Q, and play on a pointed suits squeeze if that doesn't work, or play on a simple finesse in Spades if North happens to be short in Spades, or etc. etc. Oh gee I give up the full analysis. Let's play this one card after card. I play Club at the second trick, and await their reaction.

I didn't really fancy Phil's line after the Q♣ scores : trying to crash the initial 10x♣ instead of taking a simple Diamond finesse is an improvement mainly if LHO has 4522, with specifically Jx 10y in the minors. As you already have seen the x and y, this is much less likely than the remaining bunch of 4612 and 4513 that remain after you score the ♣Q. If the ♣10 idea fails, as they need a 5th trick, I don't think strong oppos will offer me the unblocking play before playing a single round of Spades, but what do I know ? Maybe Phil is right afterall. Mmmm... not if the Hearts are 6-4 at any rate :P. What I thought was the point to this hand, was the need of taking the Club finesse just after the 1st Diamond, and just before taking the Diamond finesse. Why ? : 1. the main idea is to avoid a second undertrick if Hearts are 5-5, with the offside King. They will cash 5 tricks only, and you do not need the Diamond manoeuver anymore. If OTOH West has bot K♣ and J♦ (4522), you probably are going down 2 if you start with the diamonds ; 2. at first I thought that East would never cover the Q♣. But in reality, if East play the ♥Jack on the first round, and if he doesn't the ♣Ten, he may think about AQx AQ9 AJxx Txx, in which case ducking the ♣Q is fatal. Mmm but in turn this should NOT happen if they lead 4th best though, so this is probably a mirage. Oh well, anyway my play is ♦to King, ♣Q, ♦ to Ten, BANZAI !!

We obviously don't have the same definitions of 3rd/5th. Obviously it depends from the lattitude in Europe. Here in my village, 3rd/5th would mean the 8 can come only from 98xx or A98x (4 cards suit is 100%). With A987x or 876xx lead the smallest (the FIFTH !!) Huh ? Maybe I'm confused with 3rd filth.

I would bid like this (East mostly relays) : -- 1H 2C 2D Min hand no 4S 2H 3H x6x5 5-6 losers. 3S 4C 0625 4D sets clubs as trumps -- 4S 1 Keycard 4N 5S QC + (QH OR KH+KD) At this moment East knows -- Qyxxxx yy KQxxx. It's possible to know the ♥Jack before reaching 7♣ (and sometimes the 10♥), but here I'm always bidding 7♣ because it's practically 100%. 7♥ could suffer a Club ruff. I don't believe OTOH that North will often have a Heart Void, he may have bid 1♠. I'm not really afraid of the 2 imps loss against 7♥ because the grand might be forgotten more often than not. My 2 pence.

I bid 2NT scrambling now, and of course I'm just postponing the problem.

I guessed pard would already have known, unless in Finland, there are two kings in each suit :P .

My hand is not as horrible as before the 3♦fit. I'd show my club Ace now (4♣).

Surely after 2NT-3NT, north would find a better suit to lead than Jx ? ATxx Jx xxx Jxxx, What do you lead? I don't know, probably ♠x, 2nd choice high Diamond. What is sure is that if my pard leads the ♥J with that, my first discard will be... Him.

Pass, wtp ?

Pass.

The distribution is known : pard has 4=4=3=2. His HCP are known : he has exactly 11HCP. Pard just refused spades : he doesn't have ♠AHx2 Pard led a Heart, not a spade : he doesn't have ♥A98x, unless he has also ♠Axxx (with another Spade honor combination and ♥Axx2, he would lead a Spade). Opp took the King from AK in Heart : he'd be happy with a Heart continuation (mmmm...) ? Pard discarded ♠2 : he has probably some diamond honor(s). Pard played the ♣9 first : I don't know what to do with that, does he play "reverse-smith by the opening leader" ? I would not be surprised pard has exactly Axxx 98xx AKx 9x (edit). What does PARD know whatever I play on Clubs : - dec has (13)14 HCP ; - dec is 4333, 3433 or 4423 ; - I cannot have ♥AQJx. Well well, on this board, I really don't think we cannot do something wrong in defense. I will just clarify the situation to my pard, the decision maker, by playing : - ♣10 (I have ♥Q), ♣2 (nothing special in ♠), ♣9, ♠8 then ♠10 (I have something in Diamonds, and nothing in Spades). Hope I didnot do something silly.

OK, before I get another "LOL" or whatever, let me explain why I also think the following is definitely the best solution to make : [1] Take ♥Ace and [2] Play the ♥9 back. You actually take the excellent chance that North is a good player who led the Jack in J108x. Now take the North's seat : when you play the 9, if South has the ♥Kx (meaning you'd have A9x), covering with the 10 simply gives away the contract ! West just has to duck this hasty Ten (Jack denies, easy task !) and finesse the 8 next time. So cover or not cover ? That is the question :) And if afterall North unexpectedly covers... well just go on by ducking a club :).