dellache

Maybe I didnot get what you suggest... What happens now if South plays the ♥Q and plays a club back ? (did you allow South to block Hearts ?) As for the line, I would reject the squeeze (rather unlikely, both because of initial distribution factors and the fact that the situation is clear to opponents) and play the simple "consecutive finesses" line.

[hv=d=w&v=n&s=saq54hjt963d5cq65]133|100|Scoring: IMP Pass Pass 1♦ YourBid[/hv] Why or why not ?

No. It is a 23 trick swing. In case 1 - N-S take all 13 tricks. In case 2 - E-W take 10 tricks. That is a 23 trick swing from N-S tp E-W - all after a simple exchange of a single card from N to W. What you suggest is not a 23 trick(s) swing. This is actually a 3 tricks swing. This is so obvious that I don't understand why you won't agree with me. Let me paraphrase what you say : In case 1 - E-W take 0 trick. In case 2 - N-S take 3 tricks. 0 + 3 = 3 (I'm not talking about differences but about total tricks ? ok ?) That is a 3 trick swing from E-W to N-S all after a simple exchange of a single card from W to N :lol: . Moreover, I don't understand why you put the limit at 3 tricks for NS, when it's so obvious to find a case for going from 13 to **2** : [hv=d=s&v=n&n=sakq5hdakqjt9876c&w=sjt9hakqjt98765dc&e=s876h4d2cakqjt987&s=s432h32d543c65432]399|300|[/hv] South makes 13 tricks on any lead with Spades as trump. Exchange ♠Ace and ♥5, and the defence now makes 11 tricks. (is that a 24 tricks or a 2 tricks swing ? Ouch, I've lost focus again...). But real puzzle lovers will of course see a case for a 25 tricks swing. :ph34r: :lol: :ph34r: :angry: :ph34r:

Actually I used the word "balance" because my english is limited. The french translation of Ottlik-Kelsey's adventures in cardplay for the entry shift squeeze is "squeeze bascule". That is also the word my teacher used when I started to learn the game (well he used to teach us entry shifting squeezes after only a few weeks if I remember :blink:). And the translation for "faire basculer quelqu'un" is "to tip somebody off-balance". Oh well...

I'd bid 2NT, and a quick one.

Yeah... he did this yesterday at a sectional like it was no prob haha. My analysis in the post mortem at the other table was that this hand could not be made even after a trump lead. I did not see Bob's line, but did I luck into being correct? (LHO was 1354). It looks as if a Club back after the King definitely ruins the endplay when West is 1354. I find it impossible to find at the table. Inserting the ♣10 at the first turn also works nicely because it destroys the entry position (it works whenever Clubs are 4-2, doesn't it ?). I wonder who would find this at the table (not me!). Maybe Mr. Hamman ?

Fred, thank you, this play "at the table" was really amazing. (and also thanx for allowing us to follow it with your very (as always) thoughtful comments. It feels almost "live"). Best regards.

It looks easy easy to go wrong assuming West just had 1453, by just playing a Club now. As West is marked with the remaining Ace-Kings, it costs nothing to go up with the Ace and play the 2 remaining trumps. West will (or may) have to cope with 3 suits, and we should be able to read the position now, and find the right endplay always leading to 10 tricks (edit: of course dummy keeps -- x AT Qxx). It allows us to win in case West had x Kxxx KJxx ATxx... and "forgot" to insert the ♣T at trick 4 :) . Poor him.

Mmmm... 1. If West has say x Qxxxxx xx AKQx (East has the ♣9]), we can ruff club, Play trump to hand, finesse Heart, and [4] ruff a Heart. Now we can reach : [hv=n=s8hdq94c&w=shdxxcqx&e=shdakc9x&s=shd8cjt8]399|300|[/hv] And our ♦8 kills East. (edited diag.) 2. There's much better... and it's a balance squeeze, working in many positions (we just need to read the hands). We need East to have a singleton spade i.m.o. Say West has xx Qxxxxx Hx AKx for example. [1] Ruff Club [2] Trump to hand (dont play the Queen :)) [3] Hook Heart. [4-5] Cash ♥Ace (that's where the line with the above first case seems to diverge). East discards (nice !), and ♥King discarding 2 diamonds. [6] Ruff Heart [7] Play ♣J, West covers and we ruff, and [8] ruff last Heart. In this example we have reached : [hv=n=s8hdq94c&w=shdxxcqx&e=shdakc9x&s=shd8cjt8]399|300|[/hv] and we now play [9] a Diamond. West has to take this to prevent a cross-ruff and play his last Spade. Welcome to the balance squeeze. (many transpositions). Maybe inquiry will show us a way to win in all possible cases :) ? Cheers,

I thought about 1264 but I think it can be heavily discounted because LHO would raise to 4D with 4 of them at w/r I think. You are absolutely right. This is a very remote case.

It's odds on that the ♦K is on, and the main problem is to cope with 5-1 Hearts, West having them. I can always endplay East in that case : we reach A -- A K87 and just need to guess which pointed suit East may have voided (cash the Ace in this suit first). I will play a second diamond finesse (scoring the Jack hopefully :)) and just cash 4 Rounds of Hearts. The best East can do is play the ♦King the second time with Kxxx, and void himself in Spades. I need to watch everything carefully.

The defense can usually play trump twice, even when West takes the first Diamond trick. This line seems unrealistic.

Take lead in hand, ♠ to Ace, let the ♠Q run. Too many variants to compute %age.

Duck spade, play for black squeeze. Fails only in the unlikely cases where East has the long Spades (edit: or 1264)

The simulation did take this into account, allowing for 6+m w/ a spade stop.

Apollo81 sum's up the impressing majority of votes for leading the ♠Ace. At the table, I led a neutral ♥7, and it allowed declarer to make (she had stiff ♠KQ, and pard had a terrible 6HCP hand... including the ♥Ace). We missed the opportunity to gain 10 imps (same lead at the other table, 2NT-3NT without the 2♠ opening). Partner wondered at the end of the match why I chose such an "exotic" lead, as ♠Ace was obvious. These were my thoughts : 1. ♠Ace will often blow a trick (i.e. increase declarer trick potential [DTP] by one) ; 2. if the DTP was 8 tricks, we give him the possibility to make. It doesn't matter if WE can score 5+ tricks before she can score 9. Otherwise ♠Ace was a mistake. 3. if the DTP was 9+ tricks, this is IMPS and we don't care: ♠Ace becomes our best chance. 4. I know RHO very well : she bid a confident 3NT, and is never bluffing in those situations. So what is declarer trick potential before my lead actually ? Pard is usually 6-9 HCP, RHO has 20-21 HCP in average. It's not very likely that she has a strong running minor (6 good diamonds are only a remote possibility), and dummy will be disapointing. In average, they rate to have only about 23(24) HCP, and making 9 tricks with such a weak dummy might be taxing. I decided that playing the hand neutrally was our best chance to set this (actually : to not allow this pushy contract to make). After all they bid 3NT under the gun, and my hand will be much much better than dummy. Then I saw your answers (wow, I expected about 50/50 for Heart/spade!), and decided : 1. To call partner and apologize for bad judgement :( 2. to check I was really absolutely wrong by running a simulation. And the simulation (20000 boards) results were... interesting and unexpected (please don't tell me that sims favour declarer/defense and so on... this is probably a very useful tool to check stuff like this here) : - ♥7 beats 3NT 67% of the time - ♠A beats 3NT (only) 66% of the time - ♣2 beats 3NT 63% of the time (!!) - ♦x beats 3NT 60% of the time... At least the simulation tells us : - that it is very close, - even the unappealing minor leads are not that bad ; - the contract is indeed usually a bad one. As a matter of fact, if you compute the average of Imps gained when leading Heart Vs Spades, the final winner is ♠Ace. Leading ♠Ace will gain 0,10 Imps/board against ♥7 in the long term, because of the influence of over/under-tricks. Well, actually "IMP *don't* make this simple" (antiquoting fluffy). Thanx all for your thoughts.

[hv=d=n&v=n&s=sa10h9763da75cq982]133|100|Scoring: IMP 2♠ (3NT) The end. Your lead. *2♠= 6 carder, somewhat loosy sometimes.[/hv]

[hv=d=w&v=n&s=shk9532daq74ckt86]133|100|Scoring: IMP You are South Pass Pass (4S) Your-bid WHY ? [/hv]

Why would you expect a diamond back from this hand, but a heart back if he had the SQ and the same hand? It is a mind game but generally I would switch if I did have the SQ rather than if I didn't. I think reading too much into this is asking to be owned. True and not true. Anyway I would have ducked the second Heart !

This is not necessarily crap. If you think West's return after the ♦Ace was random, the probabilities obviously favour the endplay against West (just play Clubs). Now my question is : who has the ♦T ? If West has it, play for the endplay. If East has it, I would think twice. West could have avoided the endplay by playing the ♣Jack back, retaining ♦Jx (actually, he could have unblocked Diamonds by discarding the J from AJTx, so again, where's the 9 ?). Who has the ♣8 ? Is West strong enough to play a Diamond back with xxxx x AJxx JT8x in order to offer you a loosing endplay option ? In real life, probably not. In a textbook... Another question is : Why did East play a second Heart with an entryless hand ? I would have expected a Diamond back if East had xx KQJxxxx Txx x. What about ducking the second Heart ? Not such an easy hand :)

Qxx(x) always because Axx(x) is an awful lead at any rate (Aces are meant to take declarer's King/Queens, or provide entries). Qxxx is also often a poor lead. I would prefer an xxxx, or xxx in a side suit though.

Pass (bad suit, bad dist, lots of outside quacks, bad vul).

I would double downgrade without second thought. A bad 16 to me. KQJ is awful (if pard doesn't have the Ace, it's often on ly 2 tricks with 6 HCP, if he has Axx it's 3 tricks with 10 HCP). And 4333 is bad. So open 1NT, wtp ? (the only problem is the 25% of chances when it turns badly, your teammates might bug you at the end of the session. And so again, wtp ?)

I agree :).

I don't understand north's eccentric Pass. I would also bid 1♥ without the Spade Queen.