dellache

This solution makes full use of the fact that they play : "JACK DENIES". (Last hint before revealing that the problem is actually from Krzysztof Martens... oops I have said it)

The problem with this approach is the following : You have reached the maximum number of enemies (which I think is 1024 or 512). This is the message I got a few... years ago. :angry:

Here is the solution (hidden) : .

Szukajcie, a znajdziecie.

Fluffy just went down. Anyone wants to take his/her chance ?

I ask to my screenmate : what are your leads ?

The jig is not definitely up, even if the situation is admitedly much worse than before. Suppose that in reality, the North South hand were, West having 7312 : [hv=d=w&n=sxxhaxxxdxxxcqxxx&s=sqjxhxdakqtxxcaxx]133|200|[/hv] Now a Heart return probably kills this, but South routinely tries the effect of the ♠J. I'm not saying this is likely, I'm just saying against a good declarer, West will *sometimes* have to guess if the ♠J is an honest card, or if it's a card destined to discourage a killing shift. And now what if the actual hand, even if I took my 5 secs to play the 1st card from dummy, East goes fidgety with his Tx ? Director please ?

Take ♠K, ruff a Club, Heart to Q, ♥A, ♠ to Ace, I'm home if I've survived this and spades break no worse than 4-2. Cashing the ♥A before ruffing a club doesn't work so well for 2 reasons : 1. you allow them to score a possible Diamond ruff ; OR 2. East may play back a second spade after ♥King, and that may really prove nasty. Cheers

1A. Because I play this. 1D also works depends on system. 2C. 3D. 4C.

[hv=d=w&v=b&w=sk52hak9dak9ca865&e=sq74hq742d742ck42]266|100|Scoring: IMP 2NT 3NT [/hv] I got this one in a new book. North leads J♥ ("J denies", if that matters) What would be your plan ?

I love summaries like these. Soon, we'll hear about the likelihood of the exact shapes of the opposing hands. Agree with the spade duck however. I'll go with Gnasher's line. Winning only feels right if RHO has specifically ♠Jx and the ♥AK. This actually maximises your chances of making (59% for overtaking in clubs+counting versus 55% for simply finessing against East), but also will cost you an extra undertrick/overtrick when you are wrong/right. Probably more than just elementary arithmetics is involved.

You mean West? With a diamond void in East, there is no problem. Yes I meant West of course. That's 6% of the cases and you need them.

1. 2♠. Pard probably has 4243 and yet could not T/O at the previous turn. Let's go quietly. 2. I lead the ♦Ace. 3. Pass. Maybe I can reduce them to 9 tricks if I double and get a Heart lead, but partner may not have a good sense of humor.

Yes ducking seems mandatory. But as I said in a previous post, the odds for finessing are *globally* the same in both odd/even cases if you cannot distinguish 6-2 from 4-4. Maybe you can infer something from spade continuation *tempo* at trick 2 though (when West has no outside honor and 6 spades, he may think about a switch).

1. 3NT=10, 4D=7, Pass=5. 2. Pass=10, DBL=8. 3. My BA=5 (average).

Hi Andy, this is interesting ! Actually I didnot see a way to get enough information from cashing the Clubs without restricting my play possibilities too much : - I could overtake in Clubs to check for a doubleton in the West hand, but then I loose all the cases when East has a Diamond void. This does not work practically because of that ; - play as you suggest : -o- let's suppose you know spades are 5-3 at trick 2. Then your play offers the choice of 2-2, or stiff Q, or finesse against West, the latter being odds on if Clubs are 2-5. The problem is that when Clubs are 4-3, getting a Heart count may be of value only if West is 5233, and you can read East small Heart discard as showing 5(♥) for sure. Even in that case, when you add all the possible cases you "only" get 51%. -o- so now your table presence tell you that spades are not 5-3. But how would you guess 4-4 against 6-2 ? (this is needed imo).

No this reasoning is not right. You need to evaluate your "probably doesn't", and your "probably has" properly, otherwise the result of your estimation will be random. Even if we don't know the leading agreements of oppos, in the worst case WC for finessing (i.e. you know by agreement of the WC that LHO has KQ♠, and NEVER the Jack), the finesse would be a strict 50% bet (at the time you have to make up your mind, you'd know KQ♠ by west, J♠ by East, x♦ by West, and xx♦ by East, so exactly the same number of cards). And... OK, if their card says "K from KQx, x from KQxx+, and Q from KQJx+", I'll change my mind (definitely not the case where I play), but then I wouldn't even cash the ♦A ! In other cases, the Finesse is the winner. Depending on what we know from the lead, here is the percentage for finessing : - KQJ+ : 56% - KQJx+ : 56% - KQJxx+ : 59% (in my partnership, K would have shown KQJxx+) Here for vacant places calculus, it's the spade honors and the situation in diamonds which is important. Actually you could try to infer something from the non Heart lead and the spot plays in clubs, but I think it's really secondary. Odly enough in this case, even if you knew the parity of the spade suits at trick one (which may be the case against some oppos), the %age when they play KQJx+ don't change. Clear case for finessing a priori, but let's have a look at their CC.

I admit I would never have Passed at the table, and would have bid 2NT. I find it quite interesting that experts suggest a Pass here : I'm not really a strong MP player, and try to get any opportunities to improve my judgement in this area.

1. My first reaction is to pass. 60% of my points are in their suit. Likely 800, +/-300. 2. What is the most probable shape of CHO ? I'd say 1354. The chances of a 9+ card fit seem to be low. My hand is still ugly. What will I do with AK♠ in any contract ? If I can make a slam in our best suit (Best suit ? not so easy to determine at the 5 level), I expect to butcher them in 4♠. 3. My second reaction is to have a look at dummy : I Pass and lead a Spade.

No, I pass, I'm glad with that at MP. I hate stiff Aces. BTW that's why I play some kind of gazzilli on those sequences.

Pard most likely is 1363, 1462 with HCPs. That seems consistant with a shapely PRE 4♠ by RHO and the sequence so far. I expect at least 19 total trumps and 19+ total tricks. 5♥ what else ?

Having a void in all suits, I suppose I can pick any splinter now. Edit: now that we see our cards I'd Double again, showing values. I'll then pass 2♥, and bid some NT otherwise.

Here is a simple NON-OPTIMAL working algortihm for oppos, at any vul (you are w) : - in #2 POS : DBL with any 13+HCP or 6 Tricks, pard never pulls. - same in #4 POS if responder passed. - DBL any rescue at the 3 level with an "average+" (what is this ?) hand regarding trumps and HCP (actually you can also have a simple algorithm to know when to double. Here I used a linear fonction of trumps and HCP for both #2 and #4, with 2 different thresholds -- for those who care F=HCP+3T where T is the number of trumps). - you don't have the right to bid anything else (stupid new game). Doing this, you get those aproximate results using DD-evaluation (750000 boards) : - 35% of the boards, oppos DBL you, and you lose app. 2.5 imps on those boards on average ( I supposed you even make it XX if you scored overtricks, and that your teammates will call and make any DD-games with the oppos cards !) - 35% (edit) of the boards, oppos stay quite, and responder has 11+HCP. You cannot expect to gain too much there :rolleyes: - 5% of the boards, you play 2NT they miss a DD making game (probably also a pain to bid when nobody has more than 12HCP and you opened 1NT anyway). - 25% nothing like this happens, so I don't know. The fact that the sim is DD is in fact questionable as I suspect the opening lead will be very important. Anyway, the margin looks quite high. So this time, I did only very few single dummy checks. I don't think you'll get good scores in the long distance playing this convention. Of course if your oppos go crazy, you might get avg+. (I remember having designed such defenses against a pair who was playing 2♠ 0-7 any shape when NV. We clobbered them).

I thought 4♠ was close. In your sequence, I would bid 6♥. I am too afraid partner is 2425 where I would need the world to make a grand. Surely partner holds the ♦K or ♠K to try 6♦; else he has an ordinary minimum opening, not enough to move over 5♥. For Jlall and dellache: what's the point of 7♣? If already committed to the grand, why not just go directly to 7♥? This maybe stupid but this is a safety play against a club void, in case pard has 6 Clubs (2416 ?). Of course, if RHO doubles 7♥ I can still bid 7NT. I don't really fear a Heart void in 7♣, because I expect LHO would have bid more spades. In that case you may object : why not bid a straight 7NT and save 2 imps ? Well, actually this would surely be right, bc I very much suspect we have 13 tricks from the top, barring a grotesque ♦Void by pard or some obscure xx Qxx AK AQxxxx (I'd double 3♠ with that probably). Anyway, I expect oppos may miss this grand, and I very cowardly bid 7♣. No strong feelings about this one...

Hope it's not 2 late to answer :P We'd bid it (spider system) : 1♣ Nat or 15-19 BAL 1♦ 4+H, 4+HCP 2♦ ART strong, many hands usually 6+C 2♠ GFR 3♦ 6+C4+D, 3-4 losers. 3♥ Shortness ? 3♠ Short spades 4♣ Set clubs 4♦ No extras 4♥ Keycards 4NT 4 of them 6♣ Pard has A xx Axxx AKQxxx or A xx AKxx AKxxxx