WesleyC

I'm a strong believer that you should stretch to act on marginal hands to avoid a guess later in the auction. If partner is on the same page, i'll trust that they won't bury us in diamonds.

Your suggested line seems fine, when diamonds turn out to be 4-0 you haven't got a lot of options.

1. 3-3 break. After two pitches, revert to spade ace, making if spades are 2-1 (same as starting with spade ace). (3/3 hearts) * (spades 2/1) =35.5% * 79% =28% 2. 4-2/5-1 break with all three trumps OFFSIDE in the long hand. Make. (4/2 or 5/1 hearts) * (spades 3/0 offside) =11%*20% =2.2% 3. 4-2/5-1 break with shortness on right. When RHO ruffs, overruff and return to dummy in hearts. Continue diamonds. If RHO ruffs a second time before the 5th diamond, overruff and pick up spades. If not, pitch all clubs as LHO ruffs in, and pick up spades. I think you can actually pickup ALL spade layouts when the short hearts are onside. However you do risk going down on some layouts where the opponents can discard a couple of times and engineer a ruff in a side suit (or a trump promotion). Not very likely and i'm just going to guess a number rather than working one out. (Short hearts onside) - (chance of an overruff/trump promo in a different suit) =31% - (chance of an overruff) Overall = 61% - (the chance of an overruff/promotion) ~=59%. So definitely better than taking the finesse and only slightly worse than starting with the As. Interesting to know because I would never have considered that line at the table...

Good point - SPADE HOOK: Now with a bonus 2.2% :D

Fair enough - the 5th trumps certainly makes this hand a maximum splinter for me. However, even after 1M - 2NT you still need a way for both players to show shortage (in case responder has a hand too strong to splinter). Knowing about shape is sooooo much more important than knowing about controls in this kind of auction. The simplest option is adding a one line agreement: After 1M - 2NT, if opener rebids 3C (minimum) or 3D (bal extras), then the first new suit bid by EITHER player is shortage. So for example: 1M 2NT 3D 4C* would show this hand while 1M 2NT 3D 3H would be no shortage. and after 1NT 2NT 3C* 3M opener would show shortage (or bid 3NT without). You can obviously improve considerably on this method, but it gets the job done and is a massive improvement over just control bidding.

Spade hook: = 50% 52% (tks PhantomSac) Spade Ace: 26% (Kingleton) + 52% (chance of Kxs)* 63.5% (chance of 3 or more diamonds with the Ks) + 22% (chance of Kxxs) * 20% (chance of 4 or more diamonds with the Kxx spades) = 63% mikeh's gut was right!

The problem with your auction is that you never showed a singleton club which is the critical feature of your hand. The way your auction played out, you have no clue whether opener has [xx AKJxx KQx Axx] (slam is laydown), or [xx AKJxx Axx KQx] (slam is hopeless). If you simply describe your hand on the first round with a 4C splinter, you can trust partner to make the right decision.

Regarding the Lead problem: I felt like the situation called for an aggressive lead so at the table I swung the Jh. The full layout was: [hv=pc=n&s=s42hq86dqj96ckqt9&w=sak7hat32dat83c42&n=st9853hj4dk2c7653&e=sqj6hk975d754caj8]399|300[/hv] Not a success... However I subsequently put together a simulation of the situation: West is: 14-18 HCP, semibalanced without a 7cm or 6cM, with an appropriate NT stopper based on spade length. I also removed hands with a doubleton spade and 4+ hearts. East is: 8-15 HCP, without 4+H, unless 4333. No very long minors in a strong hand South is: No spade support unless very weak, however I didn't remove any hands with a long suits (because i struggled to come up with a foolproof way to work out which hands to remove). The results over 10000 simulations: Lead Beat3NT Tricks(average) ------------------------- JH: 1240 10.385 4C: 1027 10.419 TS: 693 10.597 KD: 799 10.872 In practice, the heart lead would be less successful than this (due to partner having bid hearts on some of those layouts) but it does feel like probably the best shot.

Even I think opening this hand 2S is pretty gross. However in this match we were playing against a strong seniors pair who are excellent card players, but less impressive in the bidding (specifically too conservative in competitive auctions). As an example, in our previous encounter, I opened 2S first seat W/R on a similar hand and after 2S (P) 3S, RHO Passed with a 1543 13 count and scored +150. Earlier this year they found a 3NT balance over my 3H opening on a sharp 23 count and scored up 720. Regarding MikeH's question about what to do with [KQTxxx xx KTx xx] - 1st seat favourable I would happily open 3S. Having a partnership agreement of wide ranging preempts when favourable makes a lot of sense. Missing a game costs your side less, while the opponents missing a game costs them more. So from a mathematical point of view it is certainly the best time to take a randomizing action.

The 'default' agreement these days after a values showing double, the next double is take-out, but denies extreme shape (e.g. a void or a 5/5). On this hand South would double for T/O and North would get to go down in 2S. :)

[hv=pc=n&s=s8hk864d75cat6543&d=n&v=0&b=1&a=p2dp2hp2np3nppp]133|200[/hv] Knockout Match @ IMPs East opens with 2D (multi). West's 2H is pass/correct. East's 2NT shows 23-24 Balanced. What do you lead?

[hv=pc=n&n=st9853hj4dk2c7642&d=n&v=e&b=9&a=2spp2np3nppp]133|200[/hv] Knockout match, IMPs scoring. Your 2S is natural, usually 5 card suit. Partner expects a rotten hand at these colours. What do you lead?

I think the mainstream approach here is that 4NT actually implies a hand with some gaps in the minors. Responder (who's range is very tightly defined) is expected to bid slam if they have some fitting cards and pass if they don't. If north instead had solid suits and just needed 9-11 HCPs opposite to make slam, they would continue with 4C to check for controls (or simply jump to slam). A few sample hands that make slam cold are: [Kxxxx KQxx Jx QT] or [Axxxx QJxx xx Qx] or [JTxx KQx Jxx Qxx]. A simple rule that I'm guilty of occasionally forgetting is: "On a misfit deal, you actually need 34 HCP to make 6NT."

It's funny because you see [--- AKQxx xxx AKQxx] and think "not necess making slam". And I see [--- AKQJx xxx AKQxx] and think "HOPE WE DON'T MISS GRAND!"

Pass in first seat shows that you count HCP too much! Over 4S I'd take control with keycard to explore grand. Something like [--- AKQJxx xx AKJxx] from partner isn't unlikely.

I've never discussed this particular auction but by the general rule "half stopper" would be the default meaning for me.

3NT is ugly. A much more efficient agreement over reverses is first step blackout, with everything else natural and g/f. This hand would be an easy 2NT bid, leaving room for partner to describe their hand. As it played out, I do have nice spades but the deal looks like a misfit and I've got no help for either of partner's suit so i'm going to pass.

Fluffy's (Martens?) idea of making 1D-(3H)-X strictly G/F feels like it gives up a lot for relatively small gains. Being able to act aggressively on weaker hands with appropriate shape feels much more valuable (even if it comes at the cost of some failed 3NT contracts). If responder holds 4135 shape, stretching to double could easily win the part-score or even allow partner to save against their making game. Even if responder has a full strength double, 12 opposite 12 with flat hands and no heart stopper will struggle to make even 10 tricks in a minor. Finally if opener does have extra values and a long suit, an old-fashioned jump to 5m gets the message across just fine. I agree with Cherdano that weak hands with a long spades should only double at low levels where there is a reasonable chance of patterning out your hand shape. Over 3H, holding a 6c spade suit you should either stretch to bid 3S with short hearts or pass and hope that partner can reopen.

I used to open 1S hands like this, but after surveying several world class players on an even stronger hand I've switched to just opening 4S.

I'm glad some of you enjoyed this problem! My vote is for 4H, converting 4S into 5D, or bidding slam directly over 5C/5D. Several of you suggested that starting with 4H might confuse partner, but I don't agree. Partner will know to get excited about diamond support, the black aces and a heart shortage and not so excited with minimum hands and soft spade values. At the table the full layout was: [hv=pc=n&s=sq82hkdq753caj964&w=sa975ht5d862c7532&n=sjhaj6dakjt94ckq8&e=skt643hq987432dct&d=n&v=e&b=9&a=1d3hdp3nppp]399|300[/hv] So the total point scoring for each choice is: Pass = -730 3NT = +460 4H/4NT/5D/6D = +920

Although you will inevitably end up in either 6D/7D, it is probably best to start with 2D. The extra level of space might be what you need to get across the fact that you have a spade void.

4H seems very clear. Pass rates well below 6c.

Having 1M here as forcing is important because if you're forced to redouble on shapely hands and hands with a fit you can end up in a pickle. This is mostly because modern opponents have stopped being afraid of the redouble and WILL preempt you. For example, holding a hand like [KQTxx x xxxx xxx] LHO will jump to 2S through a redouble, which leaves your side without a t/o double and guessing for a contract at the 3 level. I think is also better to play that the redouble specifically denies a fit (although you can make an exception on some very strong flat hands). In order to make this work easily, consider incorporating transfers from 1NT upwards.

Good Bidding, Bad Luck. On some days south holds [xx QJTx xxx AKxx] and you get to celebrate!

Updated to confirm - IMPs