WesleyC

This hand led me to having an offline discussion about 4M opening style and was talked into doing a double dummy analysis. The only constraint I put on the deals is that North held OPs hand. I DD calculated N/S's tricks in Spades as well E/Ws tricks in every other suit. (I arbitrarily chose to assume that West declarerd every hand for E/W). A few random factoids: (In Spades) NS Makes 10 tricks (or more) 61% NS Makes 12 tricks (or more) 13.5% (In their best double dummy fit) EW Makes 11 tricks (or more) 19.5% EW Makes 8 Tricks (or less) 41.5% I'll let you draw your own conclusions from this info, but at least to me it indicates that EV lost from missing a making slam is pretty small compared to the tactical benefits of the preemptive opening. Full Results http://i60.tinypic.com/316qgjs.png

I've played a lot of 10-12 NT and my preferred methods over double are: XX = To Play. New suits = To Play. Pass = Scrambling, but usually not extreme shape. Opener either redoubles or bids a 5c suit (the higher the suit, the better suit quality opener needs) . After a redouble, responder bids their lowest playable spot (or sometimes 2C on a shortage, planning to xx). Jumps = To Play. (but opener is allowed to compete/raise with a good fit). 2NT = ART G/F, shapely. The reasons I like this method are: 1) Natural 2 bids and strong redouble put maximum pressure on the opponents to act immediately. 2) It finds the 5/3 & 5/2 fits when opener has a long suit and responder has a balanced hand (our 1NT is often off-shape). 3) It is simple.

People play this double as either Takeout or Penalties by agreement.

Given the system limitations, I'm fine with every bid in their auction even 6D. See you in second division? :(

After the ♣QJ win, switching to spades is definitely the best shot. The apriori chance of 3 spade tricks after ♠A, ♠K and small to the ♠J is 77%, and only outright fails the 16% of the time that West holds ♠Qxxx. However, given that West led a diamond, there is almost no chance they hold ♠Qxxxx(x) and also a significantly reduced chance of ♠Qxxx. I'd estimate that playing on spades was well over 90%.

Using double as 'take-out but able to tolerate a penalty pass' and 4NT as 'unilateral distributional takeout' is a perfectly sensible agreement. Holding a strong balanced hand, there is no need to double because if 4H is going down you are probably already on track for a good board. In a similar vein, what does double mean in this auction? All Vul 1H (P) 1NT (4S) P (P) X Last century it would have been penalties and I'm sure plenty of old school players still play it that way. However against sane opponents, there just isn't any value to this approach. When I surveyed several top modern players, they all played double as some variant of "distributional take-out but able to tolerate a penalty pass".

Using exactly the same logic, double of a 4S opening used to be for penalties. However this century, people have come around to the idea that in terms of frequency and benefits it is more valuable to play the double as "take-out orientated values". Going back to this hand; R vs W at MPs, reasonable opponents are not bidding 4H as a sacrifice, they are bidding it to make. So in terms of frequency and benefits, using double to show a shapely hand with extra values that wants to suggest bidding on but can tolerate a penalty pass if partner has a surprise in trumps feels like by far the most valuable meaning.

I've think I've got my language mixed up. The point I was trying to make is exactly what you've typed in the first line here. Except that you've added 'in his opinion'. If the TD actually asked several peers what action they would take and none of them passed, surely it stops being just his opinion? However Fluffy's point is valid: consulting players who already know the full hand will bias the results. Because slam bidding style and methods vary so much, there aren't many situations where you will get unanimous support for one action. If you wanted to exploit this, you could call the director on every hesitation (or fast signoff) and force the opponents to make the opposite choice. However I honestly believe that most players make a conscious effort to avoid cheating in situations like this, so I prefer to give them the benefit of the doubt.

I can't come up with a hand where the spade pips matter but i'd be interested to see one?

Clear pass. With weak trumps and only an 8c fit, the 5 level isn't safe. The other side of the coin is that with strong trump support and lots of controls, partner should take a stronger line than jumping to 4H.

I think Double is clear. Partner's most likely holding is a weak hand with both minors and the cards sit very nicely for the opponents. Partner will recognize that Red vs White @ MPs, most opponents tend to have their bids and also that we can afford to go -3 vs their making game so his default action over my double should be to pull rather than to pass. And as a bonus, partner will sometimes be dealt [x xxx Axxxx xxxx] or a couple of natural trump tricks in which case we'll get a great score.

I agree that partner probably has extras. However, in competitive auctions it's up to the hand with the shortage to take the aggressive action. If partner made a t/o double on a flat 15-17 count (which seems pretty likely), he will take a conservative view and pass your 3S, worried that you have 2 or 3 heart losers off the top.

I play that 4H shows a shapely G/F with 4 spades and a longer minor OR ANY slam try with heart control. That makes it the obvious choice here. I'm plan to pass 4S and bid slam over most other continuations.

My first instinct was to try discarding on the first diamond, but because you can't afford to discard on both diamonds, it just doesn't work - A defender holding ♥Qxxx will always retain trump control. Nige1's line looks like the best chance especially if start spades with the J♠ from dummy. RHO is a favourite to hold the A♠, and starting with the Jack makes it almost impossible for him to fly up with it from Axxx or Axx.

Can you tell me more about how you did the simulation and what those numbers mean?

Double. Make the hearts AT and you could talk me into overcalling 1NT.

3S at MPs

Happily pass.

I think the main issue here is that ACOL sucks. Given that you need to raise partner to 2H at MPs holding [x KQx AQxx JTxxx] you've already lost all the benefits of a constructive 2H bid.

2S is a perfect description. Really don't like anything else.

With such strong major values, 2♥ would an easy choice for me.

It sounds like the TD recognized that pass was a logical alternative, but after asking players (of the appropriate skill level) found that an insignificant number of them would actually choose to pass. The laws state that in this case the 6D bid is allowed. What else can the director possibly do?

My choice of pass on this hand was influenced by the fact that I (most people?) play double here as 'cards' rather than 'penalties'. What else are you supposed to do with a 5143 shape and game values? However if have specifically discussed that double here is a penalty suggestion, then it's a very reasonable shot.

The problem with raising to 3D on this hand, is that you're likely to push the opponents into a skinny 3NT/4M which rolls home on a diamond lead. Make the hand [Qxxxx Jxxxx Ax x] and you would get my vote!

I doubling this sort of auctions much more than most people, but on this hand with absolutely no defense to any other contract, I'll take it in 50s.