Jlall

JOSH?!

Lots of issues. For starters, despite our strong diamonds, and the fact that we have 9 diamonds and 8 clubs, we might need to end in 6C. An example hand where this occurs would be KJx AJx xxx AJxx. On a heart lead 6D (or 6N) will go set, but 6C makes on 3-2 clubs. However, getting to clubs will never really be a confident choice and we might get to the wrong small slam and go set sometimes if partner just has Axxx of clubs and clubs split poorly. Another issue is that we might belong in 7...again only in clubs. Getting to 7 would require something like AJx AJx xxx AJxx. That is a very specific hand though, and the only possible hand where 7C is good (take away a major suit jack and 3N is probably not a good bid). That's another argument for bidding clubs. I alluded to this but some part of this also depends on your requirements for 3N. 13-15 with stoppers is fine, but imo it should also not be a super prime hand, especially not a hand with Axx in a major. You might wrong side, but it also makes slam bidding hard. There is another issue...it might be right to blast. A scientific auction could easily lead them to find a killing heart lead. Jumping to 6D would have some merit as a blast except that there is too much chance you're off two aces so you can't really do that. But still, keeping them in the dark might be reasonable. The last issue is that we might well belong in NT, just to play from partners side. Something like AKx KTx xxx Axxx (again this is a primed out hand, maybe some wouldn't bid 3N with this). Cliff notes: 1) Might need to play clubs 2) Might need to play below slam, slam, or in 7C 3) Might depend on how tight your 3N requirements are 4) Might need to blast to give away info. Our most obvious option is 4D initiating a cuebidding sequence. If partner bids 4H we can just bid 4N and drive it in opposite 2 aces. If partner has a horrible looking hand he can sign off in 4N which should be ok, if he has QJ of hearts then he will bid 4S and we can avoid slam. Again the problem with this is astute opps might infer we were looking for a heart cue before we bid slam and might lead a heart against 6D. Since we might need to play clubs, we could bid 4C. Again we might initiate a cuebidding sequence. This is similar to 4D except that we will be able to end in 5C or 6C which may or may not be good (imagine partner with AJx KQx xxx Axxx and we end in 6C, oops). I prefer something kinda weird. I would just bid 4N. This will ensure playing it from partners side, and it won't give away much info. Still a chance we get to 6 off two aces if partner has 15 missing 2 aces, but its unlikely. The opps won't know what to lead, and it won't sound like an auction where they need to make an aggressive lead.

Blah this hand sucks so much. FML and pass I guess. Bridge is hard lately. Can't believe I'm about to lose a double game swing :)

Pass??? Taking the jdonn style to a crazy extreme!

He is going to open 1C not 1D with that hand. But if his minors were reversed I would feel quite high enough in 2H, and he is going to bid 4H over a 3H bid. What do you guys think the odds that partner has a stiff heart is on this auction? It is very high imo. Even when he has a doubleton heart our trumps are so bad that we are often going to have 2 trump losers even on a good split. Pushing to the 3 level with this anemic suit and an average minus 10 count with 3 small in the unbid suit (which they are surely going to lead) seems absolutely awful to me.

I would rate pass as my only real option. If I get to make a takeout double of hearts that will be great (I will bid again to show my strength). If I get to double them in 1N that's great (strong hand with good clubs). If LHO passes and partner passes it may not be the end of the world, we are collecting tricks in the 100s and they probably have a heart fit (or partner is very weak). It's true we might miss a game in this way, but it's not that likely of an occurance. My distant second choice would be 1D. It's not really a great start to describing my hand, and may be more likely to be passed out than 1C by the opponents anyways. I am not a fan of 1N with a stiff heart at all. I am even less of a fan of doubling with a stiff heart and a hand that cannot control the auction.

Agree with 6S.

Sounds like a small spade beats it as long as partner makes the expert play of the ten at trick 1 (which is not actually a hard play).

I have no idea, pass, X, and 5H all seem ok.

Hate 3H, would just bid 2H.

2C

I would not count anything for your void yet. I mean, by your logic a void is worth 5 with a fit for partner, but in hearts it will be worth 0 (ruffing in your hand doesn't help much when you have the long trumps), and in NT it will be worth 0. You aren't really aiming to get to 5D yet, and you aren't raising diamonds at all. Also you should only count 5 for a void when you have a very big fit, when you just have an 8 card fit a void is not worth that much. So for diamonds I would just add 3 for the void. But again you aren't raising a minor yet and you need a lot of points to get to 5D anyways, so don't start adding dummy points yet.

What's the problem?

looks ok to me, unlucky

The ace of spades is far and away the right lead with AQxxx xx KJTxx x

2N, want to hear partner has a stiff D way more than I want to hear anything else.

Pretty sure the concept of 5N pick a slam was orginally Italian, and that I have seen them use it. Not sure about other Europeans. Anyways an analagous auction that comes up in a reasonably common situation is: 2N 3S 3N 4D 4S 5N 3S=forces 3N 4D=slam try in clubs 4S=answering keycards 5N=transfer back to clubs rather than pick a slam, because the whole point of 4D showing clubs is to rightside clubs.

Actually don't have super strong feelings, but I would bid. The quick trick combos give us enough D + enough possible tricks in 3N that I like it. I could see it going 2H p 3H p p 4C when we can make 3N for instance, or 2H p p p when we can make 3N, or 2H p 4H p p p when we make 4S or 5C. But obviously bad things can happen too. I used to pass way more than most people over preempts with weakish hands and my experience was pretty good with that. But obv I don't pass anymore ever ;)

Isn't this an indy? I would insta pass board 1. Maybe if it was a forum indy I would play the X to not be penalty. Just because all the forum experts can pass happily with a hand they know will beat 4H, 99 % of the other people cannot.

I would pass

I think the Italians play 2N p 4C=hearts, 2N p 4D=spades. By extension they probably play 2N p 4H=clubs and 2N p 4S=diamonds. After 4H 4S was probably a cuebid, and 5N was a transfer to 6C. Yes usually 5N means pick a slam, but here west really wants east to declare so pick a slam really just means always pick clubs since otherwise I would have to bid 6C on hands that always want to play clubs.

just lead a small h imo.

I think these simulations are proving that using judgment is a good idea with 5 spades when deciding whether or not to bid. Suit quality, shape, honor location, and HCP are all important factors.

He can upgrade to a negative double, usually with 5 you would pass.

Yes doubling is truly bad. KQJ of hearts is not good, hearts are going to be 3-3 for the opps. They are just going to ruff out the hearts, pull trumps, and claim. Lets put it another way. You have 1 heart trick and 1 club trick. Two tricks. You also have only 1 trump. Your partner has done nothing but pass despite you bidding twice. Surely if you can beat them partner would have doubled. You need tricks to double. You also need trumps.