Jlall

I double them?

If 3C shows 5-5 and 3D shows 4 diamonds, then 2S is automatic. I think both of those agreements are good ones to have. I don't know about you but I try to avoid 1S p 2D p 3C at all costs, especially since we're in the wild wild west where 2D can be based on 2443. This is just a horrendous start to the auction and pretty lol to me when both minors are/can be based on 4 card suits. If 2D were always based on 5 I wouldn't mind 3D on this particular hand since we have such a great hand for a diamond slam, and even if partner has 3 spades that's probably where we want to be. I'm sure you all have your auction for getting back to diamonds after 1S p 2D p 3C p 3S but I wish you luck. Still lying about a 4th trump is a pretty major lie. I can see why 1S...3C...4D is appealing and that is perfect if partner bids 3N (as long as 3C didn't show 5!), on the other hand 1S-2D-2S-2N-3D-3N-4C also gets the job done pretty nicely in that regard.

I think 1S has merit fwiw. Hanp, I work on the assumption that most people who just jump to 4H at some point have 10 trumps. Especially with RHO being a passed hand. So I think we are safe bidding 4S in that auction, which in turn makes opening 1D safe.

Hanp! You have a massive hand! You don't need much to make 4C man. Take a leap of faith, partners got yo back!

I would bid 3S at all forms of the game and all vuls. We could be cold for 4S, and if partner doesn't have 5 spades it's not like I'm ashamed of my hand for 4C. If partner is 4531 I will probably live to regret it but oh well. 3C is such a massive underbid on playing strength, we have a 3C rebid over 1D so I'm definitely disturbed by it but there's really no viable alternative that I can see. If partner bids 4S or 3N now I'm really happy though (this is why jdonn never balances).

Agree with jdonn, south should bid 3H and if he wants to force to game then 3S. AKQJ of trumps is not a good holding. Jdonn- I always agree with you about 4cM and longer minors starting with a forcing raise, but if you try to make it happen in your forcing raise structure it does end up as a nightmare. Obv it's doable but you'd think it'd be simpler. That being said the north hand is not really a GF so whatever. I actually think it's fine to start with 1H, both hands have more room to describe eventually. The question is which leaves you better placed over preemption obv.

The fact that it's a save is good, but as you alluded to 3N is usually going to be down multiple (vul) if it's down imo. Also, I would expect to beat 3H most of the time, we have a good defensive hand (ace empty in our long suit, and an ace and a queen). If you changed this hand a little I would like 3N more, it's still a funny bid and I think anyone who actually tries it has [a lot of courage]. Still -200 or -300 into +50 really worries me.

JLall's analogy was right. Your analysis assumes you know your opponents "cards" so if your hand is better you should raise (because maybe he will call with his weaker hand) and if your hand is worse you should fold (obviously). Back to bridge terms, you assume that you are either down 3 in 5♥dbl or you are not and that they are making or not. Obviously you don't know that when making your decision. Very simple example is this: -they are always making -you are down 3 in 40% of cases -you are down 2 in 60% of cases. Let's compute EV of passing versus going to 5♥ doubled. in 40% of cases 5♥ loses 5imps (800 - 620 = 180 = 5imps) in 60% of cases 5♥ wins 3imps (620 - 500 = 120 = 3imps) So EV of going to 5♥ is -40% * 5imps + 60% * 3imps = -0.2imps. So 5♥ is correct most of the time but passing is right action (and if they are sometimes losing 4♠ the EV difference will be much bigger) This example is very simplistic but good enough to discard your analysis I think. There was a thread once where I made a post similar to this. At MP it's a little more complicated, but the same point applies. Mbodell: There are going to be a ton of decisions where you're not sure who has what, and what their chances are of making or what you could have made. In those times of uncertainty, it is my view that it is very wrong to force yourself to commit one way or the other to "they are making too often" or "they are going down too often." Not only can you come up with a (albeit contrived) mathematical model where the percentages of everything break down such that it's right to pass, it just seems like common sense and "bridge" to me to accept that you don't have perfect information, and on this hand you have bits and pieces of defense but not enough to warrant making a strong view about your chances. The times when it's best to pass are the times when things are most uncertain. This hand is a good example. Are they making? Who knows, it was a pretty random auction, our stiff queen might add a trump trick somewhere, our SK might be a trick, and we have no idea what their hands look like. Saving is a complete gamble to me (that would be my choice over X if I had to pick one).

Thought it was an auto X

I would have overcalled 4H for sure. Now who knows but I bid 6

Isn't this contract cold on a non diamond lead if you guess correctly?

It's always possible that we have an 8 card suit and LHO has 5, or that partner has bid LHOs suit and we have our own 1 suiter. It is also possible that LHO opens 2D multi, partner overcalls 2S, and we have a heart 1 suiter. That doesn't mean people play 3H as natural. Catering to 1 in a million type things and not using 5C as a cuebid doesn't make much sense to me.

Both have normal passes to me. Also if either of them act they will get to 6.

Not this again. True: In (almost) all pass, double, bid situations, pass is not the best action on that particular hand. False: It is (almost) never right to pass in such situations. It's like saying if someone bets the river it is never right to call if raise and fold are both available options.

1D

hahahahaha. So wrong.

2010 jlall is less agressive than 2009 in spots like these, I'd guess it's like 2009>2007>2010>2004.

good grief. Pard's leaping Michaels was not a weak bid over a weak two. Missing the club Ace and all those heart honors we will not have two small spades. But, surrendering to the preemption and avoiding an accident, I choose a mere 6H. Really like 5C, but don't want to bring home a disaster. agreed....on a similar auction in the canadian team trials in 2008, the winning team had to overcome 5♣ being passed out, in the finals. lol. I mean if my partner is clueless and will pass 5C I would strongly prefer bidding 7H 6, sometimes they will save, and usually it is cold imo.

I like 1S-2D-3C-4N, then I would just bid 6C as opener.

7 could be cold really easily. I don't know what the bids mean though. I guess I'd bid 5C and see what happens...maybe partner will bid 5S on a good day. Maybe 4N should set diamonds and 5C should set hearts or something.

Obvious 3S

I like this suggestion

Bidding 2D the first time or not is really a question of tactics. IMO the hand is definitely strong enough to start with a pass, but it may enable the opps to locate a club fit and compete effectively, or it may allow RHO to bid 2H which will make things awkward for us. Bidding 2D immediately may enable us to bid 2S next also if someone bids 2H which is nice. The downside is that we are underbidding our hand by bidding immediately (which shows a weak hand), and that might cause us to miss a game. Whether or not it's right to bid immediately or pass first might depend on the details of their runout system (which hands pass).

Definitely natural to me. Partner can correct to 4C with a bad hand for this auction.

Who said east opened spades? It coulda been p 3H 4D p 4S p 5D (yes 3N is a much better bid, but presumably no one bid 3N since they ended in 5D).