maggieb

I would pass, but I disagree with my first three calls.

At first glance it looks like I can't deal with 4-1 breaks in both black suits (without taking some double dummy views) and that any reasonable line works if both black suits break. If spades are 3-2 and clubs are 4-1 I can ruff a heart in dummy, but I can't ruff two hearts in dummy. If spades are 4-1 but clubs are 3-2, then I can play to ruff two hearts in dummy. A small advantage of the second line is that if both black suits break 3-2 I'll make 7 for an extra IMP. If spades are 4-1 then the opening leader led from JTxx or J. If spades are 3-2 then the opening leader led from JTx, JT, or maybe Jx. So I think spades 4-1 is more likely from the lead, since JTxx or J is just a more attractive lead, so I'll try to ruff two hearts in dummy.

Why? If partner bids 3N or passes our double we are very happy to have started with a double! Now that partner didn't, why is it inconsistent to fall back on 4♥? Anyway I agree with passing 4m but think it's close.

1) Why? Often you just have some unspectacular balanced hand, and so 6♣ should be a default bid for this type of hands. I thought that was really clear, but I guess not. 2) What did 5N show? I was unaware that this promised diamonds. Opener shouldn't be forced to choose a strain on the spot. Basically, I think partner has the right to pass 6♦ with 5530.

2♥ should not be passable. How did you come to this conclusion? There are huge benefits to playing 2H is NF and only a few small downsides. 1) The most obvious benefit is that you get to stop low when partner is light and/or you are in a misfit. 2) A second benefit is that this allows you to immediately limit your hand. 3) It's not like there aren't ways to handle strong hands with 6 bad hearts.

KQJx AJx Axxx xx 1♦ - (5♣) - 5N 6♣ - 6♦ ? To me, if partner wanted to play 6♦ opposite ♦Axxx he wouldnt have bid this way. I think typical shapes for partner would be something like 5530, (64)30, or (54)40 with bad diamonds.

X, I'm going for it.

I like 5N, since it avoids the potential 4-3 diamond fit, and sometimes we'll get to the 5-4 spade fit when partner has 4♠/4♦. I think I would just give up on the grand slam since, IMO, 6♣ is an overbid.

Double, then raise 3♠ to game, pass 3♥, bid 3♠ over 3♦ unhappily.

mm, forget it

Let's look at a couple possible plans: 1) 2C then X if 2H comes back 2) 2C then 2S if 2H comes back to us 3) Overcall 1N 4) X then 3C if 2H comes back to us 5) X then X if 2H comes back to us Plans 1 and 2 are bad, because the hand is really good for spades, and we may never get a chance to mention them. Plan 3 is bad. Again, we don't get spades in, we only have one heart stopper (albeit KT is good), but we do get in our values. Plan 4 is an overbid, and also, it doesn't mention the spades on the second round. So that leaves plan 5. It gets in the spades, and having the auction getting out of control in diamonds is reasonably unlikely and an acceptable risk to me.

Don't look for excuses to not open 1N.

The best spot appears to be 6S or 6N by west, which is cold. This is not so hard to do, since East should just transfer to spades and bid keycard (most partnerships play that 1NT-4♥ 4♠-4N is Keycard for spades. west responds, east sees he is off a keycard, and signs off in 6♠ (played by west). Some people might be concerned about the lack of a diamond control (that is, partner could have the heart and club aces but nothing in diamonds, and then you will be in slam off two cashing diamonds). I wouldn't be though, 4N is just a practical bid; partner has diamonds controlled usually, and even if he doesn't, they don't always lead it. There are methods to find out about the diamond control, but I don't think they are appropriate suggestions for the B/I forum.

I didn't mean it as an attack on Mike, who I've never met but assume is a nice guy and a good bridge player. I guess I am just annoyed at this very prevalent belief, even among strong bridge players, that grand slams need to be nearly lock-down in order to bid because the other table might not even be in slam. The actual numbers suggest that 2/3 is sufficient even against very mediocre players. Anyway on this hand I think a reasonable partnership would get to slam 90% of the time, and an expert one essentially always.

Mike your 70% figure is nonsense. Here are some numbers: 1) The actual IMP odds are 56%. 2) Let's be generous and assume the other expert table will just be in game a shocking 20% of the time. Then the IMP odds are 62.4%. 3) For your 70% figure to hold, the other table would need to be in game about 45% of the time. I estimate that this grand is actually quite good. On 2-2 hearts it's practically cold, and on 3-1 hearts it will still make on 3-3 diamonds or Kx of diamonds coming down or some other layouts, and we have other small chances too. Overall I would conservatively estimate it as about 65% to make.

LOL

All vulnerable at IMP Scoring ♠9754 ♥Axx ♦xxx ♣AKx (2♠) - P - (P) - X (P) - ?

Did you even read/think about what I wrote?

I'd start with Jacoby 2N. We're going to want to end up bidding blackwood for spades anyway, but this way we can find out more about partner's hand before we do that (particularly whether or not he's stiff/void in diamonds).

edit, nonsense

I would have bid 3♣ instead of 2♥ the second time.

Sorry to initially be vague, I meant that I would pass 2♦ after bidding stayman.

1) If they overcall 2♣ majors, then double should be penalty oriented. 2) If they overcall 2♦+ artificial, and you double to show values, why does it make sense to play double is takeout? I play pass is takeout and double is penalty. Is this just nonsense? I don't understand what you're trying to say.

For one, I strongly recommend playing lebensohl is the cheaper of 4th suit or 2N, as opposed to always 2N. It has very few disadvantages and a lot of very important advantages. As for for what I play, I like that 2N and then 3N is stronger than a direct 3N. The reason for this is that if partner breaks the 3♣ relay, and you actually have a strong hand, you have more room to sort things out.

Definitely 2♣ instead of 2♠, also definitely pass partner's preference.