maggieb

3H

3D And yes, obviously I move. Pass is unimaginable to me, even 3S will get to more good games than miss bad games/end up being down at the 3 level. However to me 3D is good because it allows partner to evaluate his minor suit holdings well (stiff diamond is terrible, ♦Axx is good). Also a main reason that partner would bid 2S rather than x is that he is 61(42) and doesn't want us to bid 3m in his short minor. If that minor is diamonds then obviously we will do well by bidding 3D. Then again maybe partner will just pass with some 6124s, so maybe this is a stupid plan.

I would pass for now. If LHO bids I will come back in. If LHO passes and partner bids 3♥ (just want to emphasize that this is extremely likely) I will bid 3♠. If LHO passes and partner doubles again I will bid 4♠. In general I think it's a good rule that when you are very weak and shapely and the bidding goes like this, you should be aware that your partner is very likely to have a strong single-suiter.

I would definitely call pass a logical alternative, but otherwise I agree. Edit: FWIW I was referring to the American definition of a LA, I have no idea what that is considered to be in England.

Great post.

I would open 2♥. I think most experts would open 2♥. Edit: Oh I thought it was r/w, but it's actually w/r. OK, 1♥, and I expect most experts to open 2♥ or 1♥ depending on their agreements about how aggressively they preempt.

For me the auction would start this way: 1D-1H 1S-2C 2D-2S 3C-3S 4D-4N (could bid 4H instead, but this doesn't really change anything) 5C-? Responder knows opener has exactly 4153 (4063 with bad clubs would always rebid 3♦ instead of 3♣) at this point with 1 keycard. He must have both red kings for his bidding to make any sense, and he's bypassed the club cuebid. There is no hand with his keycard as the spade king which is consistent with cuebidding (KTxx K KQJT9 Jxx is a clear 4S bid over 3S to me). ATxx K KJT98 Jxx is also not a cuebid to me, so let's throw in the diamond queen for good measure, so we know his hand to be: A?xx K KQ??? ?xx Anyway given this information I don't think we are good enough to do anything but sign off, so I would only get to 5♠. Long post for a boring conclusion.

First of all I think it's weird to double 5♣ with ♦AK and only the ♣K, so I'm going to assume he doesn't have the ♦AK (maybe a little dubious, someone can comment if they think this is wrong). If this is the case he is light with 6♦. Also I think it's weird to double 5♣ with Kx of clubs, not only because opener's could easily have a second suit with clubs, but also because it's not clear at all that you want partner to lead clubs anyway. So there are a few types of hands that he is likely to hold: Qx Qx ATxxxx Kxx xx Qx ATxxxx Kxx x Qxx ATxxxx Kxx x Qx ATxxxx Kxxx void Qxx ATxxxx Kxxx I think the second is unlikely, but 3 4 and 5 are likely/possible. There are three lines to consider: 1) Play ♠AK and hope they're 2-2. 2) Play the spade A and run the ♠J. 3) Run the ♠J at trick 2. 3 is clearly better than 2, since we only lose to singleton queen while picking up Qx of hearts and Qxxx of spades, so it's just 1 vs 3. I think singleton is just more likely than doubleton, so I'm going to play for that. Cash the heart ace at trick 2 (assuming the Q doesnt appear), then run the spade jack. Assuming it holds, I'm going to cash the club ace, ruff a club, then cash the ♠K and take the heart finesse and try to ruff my heart in dummy if necessary. Assuming RHO doesnt have 7 diamonds or 5 clubs I can just exit a diamond without any risk of a trump promotion. If I cash the ♥A and the Q appears on my right then I'm going to play for spades 2-2. It would be an epic falsecard from x Qx ATxxxx Kxxx or x Qxx ATxxx Kxxx though, heh. Edited a couple times, the initial post had some errors.

I just want to add that I think west's double of 2♥ is aggressive but normal and I would do it with a pickup expert partner even without discussion.

I would pass all 3.

If you transfer to clubs and partner says he likes clubs when you have the AKQ, what kind of hand do you think he has? Alternatively, if you transfer to clubs and partner says he doesn't like clubs then you bid 3N and partner makes a move over that, what kind of hand do you think he has? Does anyone want to run a sim on 6♣ when partner has 15-16, 3+ clubs, and 5+ controls (a small tweak: if 16 with 5 controls and a 5 card suit, discard) or 16, 3+ clubs, and 4 controls For what it's worth I didn't consider this initially and I think it's a winner, but I'm not sure by how much (if at all).

East's bid is unbearably bad to me. One of two things has happened, and the first is either likely or much more likely (or 100%) depending on your opponents: 1) Partner has taken a normal light matchpoint action. If this is the case I'm not sure what your equity is but I bet it's around 10-15% (versus declaring 3♣ or defending). 2) Partner has full values. If this is the case, you can get lucky and basically be on a finesse through the opener, but normally game will require finding AQ of hearts both with opener and maybe a little bit more, or it can still have no play (KQJx xx KQx Qxxx).

3N. Unless partner has a primed out 15-16, slam is usually going to be on a finesse or so and could possibly be a lot worse.

Justin is right about me estimating 4-0's against the other stuff as a push. In retrospect it is not really fair and 4-0 is worth worrying about way more, but I'm not going to budge my estimate by more than 2.5% for it. I also can confirm that I am not Jlall! So can my husband!

LOL

I can make some loose estimates. Our major sources of making 7 come from: If clubs break, we make. (~35%) If they don't break, but partner has the club jack, we make. (1/3 * .65) If partner doesn't have the club jack, and clubs don't break, but he has the club ten, we can try to drop the club jack or hook it onside if 5-1 (~13% * .43). The above is about 62%. If partner has the heart queen (1/8) we are cold, so this is an extra 4.75%. We're on a hook if he has the heart jack (1/8), so this is an extra 2%. Also on a hook if he has the diam queen (1/10), so this is an extra 1.5%. If partner is allowed to have both the heart jack and the diamond queen, there's a little bit extra there too. So our chance of making 7 seems to be about 70%. There are some other small things (diamond-club squeeze, picking up KQx opp A9xx, contending with a 4-0 spade break), but they aren't really important to the estimate.

What is the weakest hand with 4252 shape where you would not double and then plan to convert 2♥ to 2♠ (assuming you don't have particularly good hearts and/or bad spades). Also what is your impression on how most experts would treat this auction?

1♦ - (2♣) - P - (P) X - (P) - 2♥ - (P) 2♠ How do you play 2♠?

How about BBF forum posts? :)

Good spot, missed this.

Win in dummy, hook the diamond, reach this endposition ♠J ♥xx ♦x ♣void ♠void ♥void ♦AKT ♣x If RHO has the club guard, play for the showup/double squeeze. If LHO has the club guard, play for the diamond hook.

I'm really surprised by this. The holding is bad, but we know the opponents have an 8+ card heart fit. The danger of a spade lead and a heart shift, or a heart lead on the go, is so high that I think just jumping to 3N is a must on this hand. Edit: Oh okay I see I wrote Qxx is positionally favorable to declare. That's...not true. But the stuff I just wrote is!

I would bid 2♣ on this hand, but I would bid 2♠ if you made the hand a little stronger. I am much more concerned about missing 4♠ with something like Axx x QJx AKT9xx if I bid 2♣. Also if we are playing a partial, my club suit is so good that I think 2♣ will often fare fine. I also want to add that it's not like bidding 2♠ is a magic ticket to bidding every making game when partner has spade length. You will often not get there anyway. Good comments by jdonn and awm.

I would open it 1N because I think it's about right on values. The combination of aces and a minor we hope to establish is good for declaring 3N. I would certainly have rebid 3N instead of raising to 3♣. Qxx is positionally favorable to declare, and we have a great hand (again, aces + minor trick source). I would rebid 3N the third time, which is inconsistent with the auction, but that's how strongly I feel about bidding 3N. Your partner should have passed 3♠, and I think doubling is a gigantic mistake, since I would expect it to usually make. He had nothing special on defense, you didn't promise any number of spades, and he was basically as broke as he could be on defense. His double shows a total lack of judgment to me. Just to bring my point home, look at how good of a contract 3N is opposite a partner who basically has a total minimum (just looking at the NS hands).

Agree with 4♥ (strongly), now I pass.