effervesce

Thanks for the link. Looks very interesting and useful. Wish I had a partner to play this with.

An extremely rare hand that only cares about the number of aces (or keycards depending on agreement) that you have. OTOH it could mean partner doesn't trust you (or himself) to know how to bid.

X of course. If RHO passed would depend on how conservative a bidder partner is.

Have you looked at heeman? http://www.jackbridge.com/pdf/eheeman.pdf

Definitely 2♣ rebidding 2NT for me-much too good for a 2NT opener. 4 aces, a 5 card suit.... what more do you want?

NV: 2♣ weak majors 2♦ wilkosz 5+M 5+ another 2♥ weak two in either hearts or spades 2♠ weak minors 2NT = bad minor preempt in either clubs or diamonds Apparently the 2♥ multi and 2NT bad minor preempts are amazingly hard to defend against as there is no cuebid available, but the risk:reward not so good when vul thus Vul: 2♣ weak majors 2♦ wilkosz 2♥ = weak two 2♠ = weak two 2NT = minors

SQ. Prefer a major lead on 1NT-3NT auctions, and especially with a good sequence thats alot less likely to blow a trick.

If you play letting the opps play in 2x as forcing, then (as this should be disclosed to the opponents) then the opponents may pass 2x even though they have game to try to penalise you.

1NT or 2♠ depending on partnership style. Passing is terrible-there's a decent chance we have game, and we dont want to let the opps in the bidding cheaply.

Yeah that was what I was thinking too. Bid what you should have bid the first time.

1) Close, but I X. The decent club honors make X reasonable for me. 2) I bid whatever would be a limit raise in diamonds.

3NT.

20%-100% for EW leaving NS in 3♦X, 10%-10% for EW missing 4♥, 5%-5% for NS missing 3NT.

North should bid 3NT after south bids 2NT - if 2NT is making, 3NT will probably too (just looking at the north hand) because of the many diamond tricks.

I'm a 5♦ bidder- I'm thinking its around 90% to make, while 4♥ is probably +300. Pard has a rock crusher to make a 2nd takeout double on the 4 lvl.

No. To make 6, you need partner to have (at least) A♦ as well as K♥. Can't tell if partner has that, so I simply X and take the + score.

How about 3♠, stopper ask? B) Not quite the typical running long solid suit with some stuff outside, but its similar.

I think you forgot about the stiff jack! :D True... lets just assume the J isn't stiff for this question :)

You know RHO to have 6 spades, and LHO 2 spades. So, RHO has 7 non-spades, LHO has 11 non-spades. So for any particular non-spade card, there is a 11:7 ratio of probability LHO has it over RHO. The default probability that the suit splits 3-2/2-3 is 68% (from memory I think). This probability is reduced since they're less likely to split given the preempt - perhaps 55-65 percent as a guesstimate. I'm guessing the odds are better for running the 10. Lets test this out- There is a suit break calculator at http://www.rpbridge.net/xsb2.htm which calculates how suit break odds change given the number of spaces in each hand. So given west has 11 spaces and east 7, it says the probability of a 3-2 break is 63%. You'll always pick up a 1-4 split too, so the overall % is 67% or so for playing for the suit to break. Using the calculator there, a 3-2 break is 40%, of which the hook is 60% odds on to work. A 2-3 break is 22%, of which the chances of the hook working is 40%. A 4-1 break is 27%, for which the hook is 100%. A 1-4 break - 4.5%, you'll always pick this up as you won't hook, so 100%. So the overall probability for hooking is 0.24+0.09+0.27+0.045 = 65% Meh-guess I'm wrong. Better to play for the drop. Also see http://www.rpbridge.net/7z75.htm for an interesting analysis on how odds change. So in this particular case, where you know a suit is 2-6 and have 5 cards in a suit you're interested in, you still play for the drop, although it is extremely close. Using the calculator, if you know a suit is 2-7 (instead of a 2-6 suit) then its enough that hooking is better.

wtp pass- why on earth would you think 4♠ is going down?

2♥. Either finesse works and we're on the board, or it fails and we've a board entry in the T♥. Right? :-) A, dropping the K.

agree 2♦.

4♦ splinter.

Balicki-Zmudzinski played Pass: no suitable bid or strong (16+ HCP) hand Double: 5+ hearts, 8-15 HCP 1♦: 5+ spades or 4-4 majors without shortage, 8-15 HCP 1♥: two suits, same shape (other), 8-15 HCP 1♠: two suits, same colour, 8-15 HCP 1NT: two suits, same rank, 8-15 HCP 2X: natural, 8-15 HCP Over the two-suited bids, the step was relay, and other bids pass/correct.

huh? Who's gonna double you off "lots" the passed hand who heard his partner preempt, or the preemptor? Two of the biggest reasons to bid are that you will never get doubled, and partner will not start overbidding (given that RHO and you are passed hands). Like if you weren't a passed hand obv you would pass since if you can make 3x partner will bid 4. That isn't the case here. Or if RHO was not a passed hand he could have a strong hand with short clubs and you could get doubled. That isn't the case here. Also why on earth would you be extremely worried if partner chose to convert? That is the biggest upside in doubling, you might get a nice number if partner passes. You have 2 trumps which is huge. Partner is not expecting MORE defense than this, surely everyone would double with Txxx KQJx QJxx x. That is obviously a worse defensive hand. Again given your passed hand status partner is not playing you for the world and if he converts you are going to kill this. The big downside of doubling is if you were going plus against 3C and now go minus in 3x. Boo hoo, I think the times when you go plus in 3x vs minus in 3C balance that out, not to mention the times partner passes and you get a number. You raise good points, but assuming the opps are rational when vul vs not, partner is less likely to be able to convert (they should have a decent suit+hand vul vs not). Wouldn't be surprised at all if the preemptor had an intermediate, opening strength hand with the nuts. As for having two trumps, it makes it less likely partner has a penalty pass. If you had a singleton club, as in your example, it'd be more likely that partner has a penalty pass, and I'd be happy to X with that. But here, the two small clubs sets off warning signs for me to not double. Agree that X can win lots since they're vul, but it can lose lots too. Another factor is the extremely soft values your hand holds. If you held an A and two K's I'd be happier doubling as the upside of conversion is much bigger.