Apollo81

I would bid 4♦. Yes, it's not a major, nor is it our best suit, but it is the only call available which is both descriptive and forcing.

My experience has been that there are a number of hands where 2M in the 4(5)-3 fit makes and 2NT does not, or (less often) 2M makes 3 and 2NT makes 2. I would say this roughly offsets the losses, but in my experience people seem to defend worse against 2M than against 2NT, making this a slight win. I think you're probably right about 4333 hands; maybe opener should bid 2NT with 4333 instead of passing. Also I bet your invites are more sound than ours. That's consistent with the difference in our results.

Obvious double and pull (3♠) to 3NT. Seriously, what else can we do? Pass isn't forcing. 3♥ shows 5 and isn't forcing. Partner will pass a direct 3NT with 5-1 in the red suits.

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♠Txx ♥AQTxx ♦Axx ♣xx ♠AK976 ♥Kx ♦Qx ♣Kxxx favorable, mps p (p) 1♠ (3♦) 3♠ (all pass) lead: ♦J (hidden)

[hv=d=w&v=n&n=s98xxhxxdakxxcakx&w=skqxhaqjxxdtxxcqx&e=saxxhxxdqjxcxxxxx&s=sjtxhkt9xdxxxcjtx]399|300|Scoring: MP[/hv]

There's a case for the auction going: 1♣-1♥ 2♦-3♥ 4♣-4♥ 5♦-5♠ 6♣-p I don't see why South should be so eager to raise hearts on a stiff Q here when he knows slam is a good possibility and North could have a variety of heart suits where there are two losers some significant % of the time.

Hear, hear

Isn't 2♣ also more likely to be passed out or doubled than 1♠/1NT? Both of those seem bad.

vul vs not, mps ♠JTx ♥KT9x ♦xxx ♣JTx (1♥)-Dbl-(p)-?

...but our overall HCP count does have such an effect.

AQxx. With less I wouldn't be all that surprised if it went p X p p back to me.

How about "penalty only when we open a minor and they overcall a major"

Strong hands with 3-card support for partner's major and a long minor are a known problem in standard and 2/1.

First one > standard > second one.

Sounds like bullshit to me. I recommend you find a trustworthy mechanic and ask them what could be causing this.

Michaels on 3334 an 1 hcp after pass-(1♣) at none vul, mps. Result: -2000 in 4♠x

If you bid anything you're pretty much doing it ONLY for the preemptive value; the "we might find a sacrifice" horse and the "it might be our hand and LHO might be about to preempt partner" horse are either longshots or nonexistent. ♣A-empty, ♥Q-x, ♦-- look like things that might cause the opps to do down. PASS.

Double, diamond, pass. All seem pretty clear.

2♥. I'm heading to slam in some suit or other (tbd later) over any non-notrump bid by partner.

The immediate double by RHO tells me that the spades aren't 4-1. Therefore I'll lead the ♠Q, establishing the suit so that whoever has the entry can lead spades to run the rest of the suit.

LOL, i guess that means I was passing after 2♦-4♦-4♥. You don't bid slam opposite a maximum with hearts then which seems bad. I don't really understand the benefit of your auction over starting with 2N. You end up declarer in 6M and then opponents lead through partner's ♣Kx? It seems like there's a strong reason to make partner declarer somehow. Is there a systemic way to do this after he shows a min? I was pretty much assuming he had spades. Guess I shouldn't be doing that since it's favorable.

I can't see a flaw in han's reasoning in the case where an opponent holds the ♣J, and I can't see a flaw in fred's reasoning in the case where the ♥9 and ♣J are in dummy. Combining fred's reasoning if the ♥10 is in dummy with the restricted choice on trick 11 (the first time RHO had the option to play the ♣Q) says to me that the drop is a 2:1 favorite in this situation. han, I don't understand why it is necessary to remove hands where LHO had ♣Qxx in the cases were the ♣J is in dummy: don't we know that this wasn't happening anyway by looking at his play to trick 11? for this sort of problem, i would think that in general my opinions are the least likely to be right out of all respondents so far -- please show me where i'm going wrong

If dummy had the ♥T, my instincts are that the drop is 2:1 ish, given that we can apply restricted choice only on trick 11 as opposed to tricks 10-11.

LOL, i guess that means I was passing after 2♦-4♦-4♥.